A Chess Match in Pads: The Best Bets for Seahawks–Patriots
If you told me two years ago we’d be talking about a Seahawks–Patriots Super Bowl in 2026, I would’ve asked what streaming service the documentary was on.
This matchup wasn't supposed to happen; not this fast. It feels like two timelines colliding — Seattle quietly building one of the most complete rosters in football, and New England skipping a few steps in the rebuild because their quarterback decided to become a serious problem for the rest of the league.
Seattle gets here as the NFC’s top seed, riding a nine-game win streak and looking comfortable winning games however they have to. They can grind you down, they can hit explosives, and if things get weird, their defense is good enough to survive it.
New England’s path looks nothing like that — and that’s the point. They went from “please be patient” to 17 wins, a potential MVP at quarterback, and a defense bolstered by free agents that’s been turning playoff games into rock fights.
This One Has All the Ingredients of a Classic
Seattle’s defense has been the backbone all season: 19.3 points, 312.6 total yards, and just 190.9 passing yards allowed per game. They’ve also taken the ball away (15 interceptions in the regular season), which matters in a game where one mistake can flip the game on its head.
Offensively, the Seahawks don’t need to be perfect to win. Sam Darnold has looked really impressive all year long, and the structure around him — play-action, rhythm throws, a run game that keeps things on schedule — does a good job limiting chaos.
That said, the one thing that’s followed them all year is ball security. Twenty-eight giveaways over the season is the kind of number that keeps games closer than they should be.
On the other side, New England is going to force you to play their style of football, whether you like it or not.
Then the playoffs started, and the Patriots leaned fully into who they are. They beat the Chargers 16–3, the Texans 28–16, and won the AFC Championship 10–7 — games that felt less like shootouts and more like negotiations.
They’ve forced eight turnovers in three postseason games, including five interceptions, and the pressure has been relentless. Against Denver, they posted a 35.1% pressure rate, with a postseason blitz rate hovering around 40%. That’s not bend-but-don’t-break defense. That’s an approach designed to keep games close by constantly testing a quarterback’s patience.
This postseason, Drake Maye hasn’t quite been playing at the MVP-caliber level we got used to seeing during the regular season — at least not on the stat sheet. But context matters here. Two of New England’s three playoff games were played in rough conditions that naturally squeezed the passing game, and the Patriots were perfectly content to win those games without asking Maye to be Superman. Instead of forcing throws, he’s managed the game, protected the ball, and picked his spots — which says more about how New England has chosen to win in January than any kind of drop-off in his play.
The Best Bets for the Big Game (-130 to +180)
Drake Maye 2 or More Pass + Rush TDs (-122)
I’m not saying Maye is going to throw for 350. I’m saying his legs are part of how New England scores, especially when the field shrinks.
In the playoffs, defenses don’t just play you — they study you. They know your third-down tendencies, your red zone calls, the exact motions you like on your “shot” plays.
That’s why quarterback mobility is such a cheat code. It’s not in the call sheet. It’s the answer when the call sheet gets erased.
Maye’s rushing has been a major factor throughout the season, and I don’t expect that to change in the biggest game of the year.
And it matters even more this week because Maye’s been on the injury report with a shoulder issue. He’s going to play, but if there's any doubt in his mind about how effective his arm will be, he won't hesitate to tuck it and run.
And it’s not just regular-season theory. In January, he’s been using his legs like a weapon:
10 carries for 66 yards in the Wild Card round,
He didn't need it much against Houston,
Then another 10 carries for 65 yards and a rushing TD in the AFC Championship — plus the game-sealing scramble where he called his own number.
Seattle’s defense is disciplined. They tackle. They cover. They don’t blow assignments. But disciplined defenses can create a weird byproduct: they keep routes covered long enough for the QB to run.
If Seattle plays tight coverage and forces Maye to hold the ball, that’s great… until he steps up and steals 12 yards on third down. That’s why I like the “pass + rush” combo instead of betting two passing TDs.
Sam Darnold to Throw an INT (-128)
This is the uncomfortable one because Darnold has been clean in the playoffs. No picks so far.
But an interception prop isn’t asking for a meltdown. It’s asking for one mistake — one late throw, one pressured dropback, one ball that gets tipped because the QB had to speed up his process.
And New England’s defense is built to create exactly that.
New England has forced eight turnovers in three playoff games, including five interceptions. But as good as the secondary has been playing, it's really the defensive front that deserves most of the credit.
Pressure doesn’t just affect the play you see it on. It changes the quarterback’s internal clock for the rest of the game, and the Patriots are pressuring quarterbacks on 38% of their dropbacks through the postseason. Darnold gets rushed and sees one “ghost” early, and suddenly the Patriots are taking it the other way.
A guy like Christian Gonzalez doesn’t need you to throw a terrible ball. He just needs you to be late by a beat.
DeMarcus Lawrence to Get a Sack (+122)
I love sack props in the Super Bowl because the game almost always forces its hand. Even teams that want to stay balanced eventually find themselves staring at a few 2nd-and-long or 3rd-and-8 situations where there’s really no hiding — you’re dropping back, and everyone in the building knows it.
And if New England ends up in a handful of those spots — which feels likely against this Seattle defense — DeMarcus Lawrence becomes very live at plus money.
The key detail here is Will Campbell.
Campbell has talent, but he’s also had some real “welcome to the NFL” moments. He allowed three sacks and nine pressures across his first two postseason games. The Patriots did a good job settling things down after that, but this is easily his toughest test yet.
Because it’s not just Lawrence. Campbell is going to be dealing with Leonard Williams throughout the night as well. That’s two high-level pass rushers, different styles, coming at you snap after snap. For a young tackle on the game’s biggest stage, that’s a lot to manage.
Lawrence isn’t the flashiest edge rusher anymore, but he’s still one of the most annoying players in the league to block because he wins in so many different ways. He can power through your hands, bend when you overset, and his timing has a way of making perfectly normal reps look late.
Lawrence doesn’t need five pressures. He needs one snap where Campbell oversets, Maye drifts a step too far, Seattle runs a stunt and the lane opens — or protection communication breaks down for a beat, which happens more in big games than people like to admit.
Each Team to Make 2+ Field Goals (+180)
This is the ultimate “feel of the game” bet.
It’s really a bet on two defenses doing their job and at least a couple drives stalling out after crossing midfield. New England finished 22nd in red-zone touchdown rate during the regular season, and Seattle’s red-zone defense ranked fifth-best in the league. Put those two things together, and multiple field goals start to feel less like a stretch and more like the natural outcome.
These offenses can move the ball. They can create explosives. But Super Bowls have a way of tightening everything up once the field shrinks, and both coaching staffs here come from the same school of thought — take the points, trust your defense, and live to fight the next drive.
If it’s 4th-and-3 at the 25 early in the game, it’s hard to see either coach forcing it. Vrabel has never been shy about grabbing points, and Mike Macdonald, a defensive head coach by nature, isn’t exactly the “we’re going for it no matter what” type either — especially when he’s got a kicker he trusts.
That kicker trust is a big part of why this bet works.
Jason Myers has been rock-solid all season:
41-for-48 on field goals (85.4%)
a 57-yard long
and perfect so far in the postseason
On the other side, rookie Andy Borregales has looked unfazed:
27-for-32 on field goals (84.4%)
a 59-yard long
So you’re not hoping shaky legs don’t ruin your night. You’re betting on two kickers who’ve been reliable all year, in a game where coaches are likely to lean on them.
At +180, you’re basically betting on one of the most familiar Super Bowl scripts there is: a close game, defenses tightening near the goal line, and kickers playing a real role in how it’s decided.
Emptying the Chamber: The Long-Shot Lotto (+400 & Up)
Mack Hollins Anytime TD (+400)
The Super Bowl is the one game where teams empty the chamber. Every gadget play, every odd look, every wrinkle that didn’t feel worth showing in October suddenly becomes fair game.
And Hollins is exactly the kind of player who tends to pop when that happens.
He’s not someone defenses lose sleep over in the game plan, which is precisely why he’s interesting here. When coordinators are locked in on the primary weapons and the quarterback, the “other guy” is often the one who slips through.
We’ve already seen New England tip their hand. In the AFC Championship, the Patriots hit a flea‑flicker for a 31‑yard completion to Hollins in the blizzarding snow. That wasn’t random. That was a coaching staff deliberately involving him in the weird‑stuff portion of the playbook. I have a feeling that wasn't the only one they had drawn up for him either.
At +400, you’re not asking Hollins to be a focal point. You’re betting on one designed moment, one snap where the attention goes elsewhere, in the biggest game of the year.
Patriots D/ST Anytime TD (+850)
This one’s a longshot — but it’s not a blind dart throw.
New England’s defense has been living off takeaways all postseason, and three times already they’ve turned a turnover into points. That’s not fluky. That’s a unit that swarms, finishes plays, and looks to flip the game when they get an opening.
So the real question becomes: what's their path to it in this matchup? It looks a lot like the Darnold interception bet, just with the return attached.
Even in a strong season, Darnold has had stretches where turnovers come in bunches. We’ve seen the four‑INT game. We’ve seen the multi‑pick nights. We’ve seen how pressure can speed up his clock and force him to make a decision just a beat too early.
If New England can create discomfort — even for a quarter — a pick‑six is always live. It doesn’t need to be a horrible throw. Sometimes it’s just a late ball to the flat, a misread against a disguised coverage, or a tipped pass that lands in the worst possible hands.
And D/ST isn’t just defense. It’s special teams, too.
A muffed punt. A blocked kick. One return lane that opens because someone lost leverage. Super Bowls almost always have at least one “how did that just happen?” moment, and special teams is where those tend to show up.
At +850, this is a sprinkle — not a foundation piece. But it’s a sprinkle that’s grounded in how New England has made it this far in the first place.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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