Sunday afternoon’s slate doesn’t exactly jump off the page. All three games look pretty one-sided, and even though one of them will probably turn into a fun, competitive matchup, it’d be a real surprise if any of them ended with an upset.

That’s just the reality of this week’s games. Even the two divisional matchups feel lopsided enough that familiarity might not make much of a difference. I thought the Raiders had a chance to give the Bills a real test, and that’s still the matchup most likely to produce a surprise. But after what Las Vegas showed against the Patriots, I’m not feeling nearly as optimistic about that possibility.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

4:25 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+

This one starts up front. The Chargers used four rookies on the offensive line against Denver, including left tackle Travis Burke. Joe Alt missed Wednesday’s practice with a neck injury. His status for Sunday is still up in the air, and even if he’s good to go, this is a tough assignment against Chris Jones and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. Justin Herbert can make a ridiculous throw with the pocket falling apart around him. Asking him to do that for four quarters, though, isn’t much of a plan — especially when he’s already been responsible for nine turnovers in five games.

The other side of the ball is more interesting than the records would have you believe. The Chargers’ defense ranks second in success rate, which basically means they've been very good at keeping offenses from getting what they need on each play. Kansas City now has another way to mess with that rhythm, though. Kenneth Walker III ran for 537 yards in the Chiefs’ first four games, including 177 yards and a 76-yard touchdown against Las Vegas. If the Chargers let him turn one routine handoff into a huge gain, all those solid defensive snaps around it won’t matter much.

Keep an eye on the goal line, too. Los Angeles finally put together a long touchdown drive against Denver, then lost after a failed fourth-down sneak from their own 41 and two late Herbert turnovers. Harbaugh called the fourth-down decision “the wrong decision.” Against Patrick Mahomes, the Chargers have to finish with touchdowns when they get inside the 20. And Harbaugh’s aggressive calls need to fit the moment in front of him — not just the idea that being aggressive is always the right answer.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

4:05 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX One

Mike LaFleur spent the last three seasons as the Rams’ offensive coordinator. Now he’s back at SoFi Stadium as Arizona’s head coach, standing across from Sean McVay. Both staffs know the general shape of what the other side wants to do. That doesn’t give either team a cheat code. It just means the little adjustments could matter more than usual.

San Francisco is already 5-0 in the NFC West. The Rams are 2-3, and the Cardinals are 1-4. Neither team has won a division game yet. A loss in October won’t end anyone’s season, but it would give the winner a much better leg to stand on when we start talking about the playoff picture in a few weeks.

The matchup I’m watching is Arizona’s secondary against Matthew Stafford’s receivers. Stafford threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns in Monday night’s overtime loss to Buffalo. Puka Nacua caught 17 passes for 138 yards, and Davante Adams caught two touchdowns. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have given up at least 30 points in four straight games.

They can’t spend the afternoon letting Nacua catch easy passes and then hope they tackle him before he turns them into something bigger. But they also can’t tilt the whole defense toward Nacua and lose track of Adams. That’s the headache with this Rams passing game: the answer to one receiver can create a problem with the other. Los Angeles showed both sides of that against Buffalo.

Arizona has a passing-game problem of their own. Marvin Harrison Jr. has been traded to Houston, which leaves Trey McBride and Michael Wilson as the obvious players for a defense to crowd. Detroit did exactly that last week, and LaFleur admitted the Cardinals still need better answers. Wilson did have 16 catches for 241 yards and three touchdowns in two games against the Rams last season. The question is whether Arizona can get him and McBride open when Los Angeles already knows where Jacoby Brissett wants to go.

That’s the game within the game. McVay knows LaFleur’s habits, and LaFleur knows the Rams’ personnel. Eventually, one of them is going to call something the other saw coming and have to make it work anyway.

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+

Las Vegas is 3-2 after starting 3-0, losing a close one to Kansas City, and then getting absolutely flattened by New England, 45-17. This should be a pretty good test of whether the Raiders’ promising start can survive a rough couple of weeks.

The Bills are scoring 32.8 points per game, tied for the league lead. Josh Allen ran for 121 yards against the Rams, but Buffalo also needed a blocked field goal and overtime to get out of there with a win. The Bills stayed in California this week instead of making two cross-country trips, so they’ve handled the travel part. Now they have to handle the Raiders.

The matchup to watch is Las Vegas’s ball-hunting defense against Buffalo’s offense. Maxx Crosby has 36 quarterback pressures through five games. The Raiders have forced 11 fumbles and come away with 10 takeaways. Buffalo, meanwhile, has turned the ball over nine times over their last three games. Allen can make pressure disappear with one ridiculous scramble, but a contender can’t keep asking him to clean up everyone else’s mistakes, too. James Cook’s fumble in overtime against the Rams nearly turned a win into a loss. The Bills know they’ve got a ball-security problem to fix.

The Raiders have plenty of fixing to do themselves. New England piled up 536 yards against them, while Las Vegas managed just 38 rushing yards. Brock Bowers caught eight passes for 110 yards, but that’s a lot to put on one tight end, especially when the game gets away from you early. Buffalo’s defense is giving up 28.2 points per game, so Kirk Cousins should have some opportunities. Las Vegas needs enough from their run game to keep the Bills' pass rush guessing. Last week made it pretty clear what happens when that balance disappears.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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