A Cowboys-Packers game at Lambeau Field already feels like a big deal. Put it on Sunday Night Football, with the whole country watching after a day full of football, and every play carries a little more weight.

Dallas is 2-3 and trying to climb back to .500. Green Bay is 3-2 after their best game of the season, even though the Packers are still chasing undefeated Minnesota in the NFC North. These teams played to a wild 40-40 tie last year, so there’s plenty of reason to expect another entertaining night. Just don’t count on another 80-point shootout.

The real question is simple: which offense can make the most of their chances without handing the game away?

Can Dak keep Dallas on schedule?

The Cowboys are averaging 27.6 points per game, seventh in the league. Dak Prescott has thrown for 1,381 yards and nine touchdowns, and CeeDee Lamb already has 507 receiving yards. George Pickens gives Dallas another receiver who can flip a drive with one catch. The talent isn’t the question.

It’s whether the Cowboys can play with any kind of consistency. They followed a 34-point win over Houston by scoring 16 at home against a Tampa Bay team that hadn’t won a game and was starting an undrafted rookie. Dallas turned it over three times and watched Lamb finish with two catches for nine yards before leaving with a thigh injury. He was a full participant in practice this week, which is huge because Dallas needs a fully healthy offense that forces a defense to account for both Lamb and Pickens.

Green Bay isn’t going to make things easy. Former Cowboy Micah Parsons is still expected to miss this game while he works his way back from a knee injury, but the Packers have 14 sacks and a league-leading seven interceptions. Their defense forced five takeaways against Chicago last Sunday, including two picks from Xavier McKinney. Former head coach and current coordinator Jonathan Gannon has found ways to create pressure on 42.2% of opposing dropbacks this season.

Prescott knows the blitz is coming. He said Dallas didn’t handle Tampa Bay’s pressure well and would be “naïve” to think Green Bay won’t test that again. So the early downs matter. A solid run or a quick throw to Lamb on second down is a lot better than putting the offense in another third-and-long situation and letting Gannon tee off.

Can Dallas Make Jordan Love Work for It?

Love's coming off a 367-yard day in Green Bay’s 31-7 win over the Bears, and he had plenty of help. Christian Watson caught two long touchdowns and finished with 143 yards. Matthew Golden added 123. Dallas has given up 37 explosive plays through five games, tied for the fourth-most in the league, and the Cowboys haven’t done a great job finishing tackles once receivers get the ball. That’s not exactly the matchup you want after watching Green Bay spend an afternoon throwing over Chicago’s head.

The Cowboys have five sacks and no interceptions this season. They’ve brought in veteran coach Mike Pettine to help defensive coordinator Christian Parker, but a new voice in the meeting room isn’t going to cover Watson downfield. Joey Porter Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury, and Cobie Durant has already been ruled out. Dallas needs their pass rush and coverage to work together for all four quarters, not just show up for one good series and disappear.

There’s also a weird opening for Green Bay on the ground. The Packers rank last in the league at 60.4 rushing yards per game, while Dallas ranks last against the run. If Green Bay can run just well enough to avoid living in those obvious passing situations, Love will have even more room to go after a banged-up secondary.

The Possessions That Decide It

Field position, red-zone finishes, and turnovers sound like the usual pregame checklist. In this one, they’re basically the whole game. Dallas can score from just about anywhere, but last week they also fumbled a kickoff and handed Tampa Bay the ball at the Dallas 37. Green Bay’s defense has already shown they know how to make the most of extra possessions. A long drive that ends in a field goal? Dallas can live with that. A giveaway that lets Love start near midfield? That’s a much bigger problem.

I’m leaning Green Bay in this one, but barely. The Packers have been better at creating extra possessions, and Love’s deep targets are a real problem for this Dallas defense. Still, Prescott, Lamb, and Pickens can change the whole feel of this game in a hurry if Dallas handles the pressure and finishes their drives.

A Cowboys win gets them back to .500 and makes the Tampa Bay loss look more like a stumble than a warning sign. A Packers win makes last week’s performance against Chicago feel less like one great Sunday and more like a team starting to figure themselves out.

Either way, there’s plenty riding on this one under the lights.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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