Hunter Tierney Oct 18, 2026 9 min read

Sunday’s Early Window Has a Backup Plan

Jan 11, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) runs to score a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the third quarter in an AFC wild card game at M&T Bank Stadium.
Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET slate has a little bit of everything: heated division rivalries, playoff implications, and quarterback questions all over the place. Baltimore and Cleveland should bring their usual edge, but the other two divisional matchups don't look quite as entertaining. In Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts' surprise blood clot has all the attention. The other games have plenty at stake, too, so buckle up.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

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Baltimore's 4–1, Cleveland's 3–2, and this is their first meeting of the season. A Browns win would pull them even over a quarter of the way through the season — which is something I'm not sure even the most optimistic Browns fan thought was possible before the season.

The big question is how much of Baltimore’s offense Cleveland will actually see. Lamar Jackson missed Wednesday’s practice still dealing with that ankle injury, but he's got a chance to play. If he can’t go, Tyler Huntley will make another start after leading last week’s overtime comeback in Atlanta. Either way, Cleveland still has to deal with Derrick Henry, who’s already piled up 476 rushing yards and seven touchdowns through five games.

The Browns have 16 sacks, but their offense is averaging just 273.6 yards a game. Deshaun Watson was sacked eight times in last week’s 17–12 loss to the Jets, and Cleveland coach Todd Monken, Baltimore’s former offensive coordinator, said his team was “behind the sticks the whole day.”

That’s the matchup to watch: can Cleveland get stops and give their defense a chance to catch their breath? If the Browns keep going three-and-out, Henry could be running at a worn-down front by the fourth quarter.

The numbers say that’s a real problem, whether Jackson plays or not.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) celebrates a touchdown with Blue on Sunday, Sept. 7, 2025, during the game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Indianapolis Colts defeated the Miami Dolphins, 33-8.

Grace Hollars/IndyStar via Imagn Images
Grace Hollars/IndyStar via Imagn Images

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Indianapolis is 2–3 and trying to keep Jacksonville from running away with the AFC South. The Colts have also won six straight against the Titans. So no, this isn’t exactly a matchup you have to squint at to call even. But there is one real question: can Tennessee hang around long enough for that defense to matter?

The Titans are last in the league in scoring and total offense, averaging 11.6 points and 246.4 yards a game. They scored three points against Houston last Sunday. Cam Ward has three touchdown passes in five games, and Tennessee averages just 24:31 time of possession. That’s a lot to ask of any defense.

Indianapolis has their own issues. Daniel Jones has thrown four interceptions, the Colts are minus-six in turnover differential, and they just lost 34–22 to Pittsburgh. Jonathan Taylor's their best path back to .500, with 398 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Keep an eye on the early downs. If Taylor keeps the Colts ahead of the chains while Ward's stuck facing third-and-long, this could get away from Tennessee in a hurry.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

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The Jets have been better lately, there's no doubt about it. But that doesn't make this game appointment viewing. The Patriots and Drake Maye seem to be hitting their stride right now, and this is a Jets roster with too many holes to keep this one close.

It’s also a pretty good test of whether the Patriots’ offense has actually turned a corner. Drake Maye followed up his three touchdown passes against Buffalo with four more touchdowns and 374 yards in a 45–17 win over the Raiders. He didn’t throw an interception last week after tossing seven over the first four games, and New England's now averaging 372.4 yards per game.

The Jets’ defense should have something to say about all that progress. New York sacked Cleveland eight times last week, with rookie edge rusher David Bailey getting three of them. The Jets are giving up just 175 passing yards a game, too. So keep an eye on what happens when Bailey and that pass rush start moving Maye around. If he’s still hitting open receivers downfield, the Patriots’ last two games will start to look like a real trend.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

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Both these teams average 23.8 points per game, but that number doesn’t tell the whole story. They've both had a rotating cast of characters taking the snaps.

Chicago's coming off a rough 31–7 loss in Green Bay. Caleb Williams, who’s been out since Week 2 with a hamstring injury, took a step toward returning Wednesday, but the Bears still hadn’t named a starter for Sunday. With Tyson Bagent against the Packers, Chicago managed just 246 yards, and once they fell behind, the passing game couldn’t do much to bring it back.

Atlanta has a quarterback concern of their own. Michael Penix Jr. hurt his ribs late in the overtime loss to Baltimore, then took all the first-team reps Wednesday. Coach Kevin Stefanski expects him to start as long as his recovery stays on track. The Falcons have looked much more dangerous when Penix and Bijan Robinson are working together.

That makes the first quarter worth watching. Chicago will look different if Williams is back, especially after what we saw last week. Atlanta, meanwhile, needs to prove they can keep building on their recent progress with Penix coming off that hit.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

Oct 9, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants running back Cam Skattebo (44) celebrates his touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium.
Brad Penner-Imagn Images

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The Giants are 3–1–1 and sitting on top of the NFC East. The Saints are 1–4 and just managed 142 total yards against Minnesota. So, yeah, these teams are in pretty different spots. But they’ve got one thing in common: if you get behind schedule, both defenses can make life miserable for the quarterback.

Jameis Winston is starting for the injured Jaxson Dart, and he threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns as New York stormed back from down 14 in the fourth quarter to tie Washington. That was a fun comeback. It’s also not exactly a recipe you want to follow every week. Throwing 54 passes is a stressful way to live. The Giants would much rather get steady early-down production from Cam Skattebo and spend less time asking Winston to bail them out.

New Orleans has an even bigger version of that problem. Tyler Shough threw for just 96 yards with two interceptions last week. At the same time, the Giants have started bringing more pressure. They’ve blitzed on 57.9% of opposing dropbacks over the last two games. Shough's averaged only 5.4 yards per attempt when blitzed this season.

That’s the matchup to watch. Can the Saints keep Shough clean? Can he find the space the blitzers are leaving open before he gets hit?

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

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The Eagles were already trying to stop a three-game slide. Now they’ll have to do it without Jalen Hurts. Philadelphia ruled him out Thursday after a follow-up ultrasound found movement in a superficial blood clot in his calf. Hurts had been cleared to play in London last week, but the team says the follow-up in Philadelphia changed the plan.

Tanner McKee's expected to start. That’s a huge midweek change for both teams, and it leaves the Eagles trying to find an answer while the rest of the offense is already banged up. Saquon Barkley missed Thursday’s practice, DeVonta Smith was limited. The Eagles uniforms will be on the field for this one, but this won't be the Eagles we know.

Carolina comes in rested after their bye. The Panthers are averaging 30.2 points and 405.8 yards a game, and Bryce Young has nine touchdown passes to just two interceptions. That’s a pretty good setup for a team that now gets to prepare for a backup quarterback. The Panthers’ coaches have already talked about adjusting to McKee’s style.

So the game’s changed. Carolina has a real chance to take advantage of an Eagles team that’s lost three straight and is suddenly short on answers. But the Panthers can’t treat “backup quarterback” like an automatic win button. They still have to handle a rowdy Philly crowd and a tough defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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The Buccaneers finally got in the win column last Thursday in Dallas. Rookie Jalon Daniels is expected to start again while Baker Mayfield works his way back from an injured throwing thumb.

Tampa Bay’s formula in Dallas is worth another look. Bucky Irving helped power a 241-yard rushing day, and Daniels completed 19 of 25 passes without a pick. That’s a much easier job for a young quarterback than asking him to stand in there and throw through pressure on third-and-eight.

Pittsburgh's built to see if the Bucs can do it again. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith have combined for 7.5 sacks, and Tampa Bay’s improved protection last week is about to get a much tougher test. Keep an eye on right tackle Luke Goedeke against Watt.

On the other side, Aaron Rodgers has thrown three touchdowns in each of his last three games, so Tampa Bay can’t assume a few punts will be enough. This feels like the kind of game where one blown protection could wipe out a lot of good work.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.


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