Can a Democrat Win Texas? New Poll Shows a Tied Senate Race
A new round of polling in the Senate is signaling that momentum may be swinging back to Republicans in Texas. Here is a look at what the polling revealed and where the races stand with just a few weeks left until the crucial midterm elections.
GOP Gaining Ground in Texas, According to Latest Poll
Early voting for the November 3 midterm election kicks off in Texas in just 10 days. While Democrats have been picking up steam heading into crunch time, a new round of polling suggests the tide may be turning back toward the GOP in two key contests in the Lone Star State.
For context, Texas has a long-standing reputation of being a solid red state. However, political newcomer James Talarico has turned the state on its head in recent months, putting the GOP's grip into question. As a former state rep representing the Democrats, Talarico had been inching ahead of Rep. Ken Paxton in most September and October polls. Some of these polls even had Talarico's lead outside the margin of error.
A new poll released on October 8 from the UMass Lowell/YouGov agency shows Paxton and Talarico tied at 45%. According to this poll, 7% of the respondents have not decided where to cast their vote.
John Cluverius, director of survey research for the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell, highlighted the historic nature of this race, explaining that, “The last time Democrats won a U.S. Senate race in Texas, Ken Paxton didn’t yet have a law degree and James Talarico wasn’t even born. With the race tied, anything can happen between now and the election.”
It is difficult to pinpoint what has led to the shift in the polls. President Donald Trump has spent time campaigning in Texas, leading some political experts to hypothesize that this is responsible for the boost to Paxton.
It is also notable that Talarico has been absent from the campaign trail for the last several days as he recovers from the flu. You have to go back to September 26 to find the last time that Talarico campaigned in person. He appeared at a virtual Hispanic business group event on September 30, reporting that he was feeling unwell.
Talarico's campaign confirmed that he tested positive for the flu at an urgent care clinic in Dallas. The candidate has Type 1 diabetes, making a common flu diagnosis more dangerous.
The Democrat is expected to return to the campaign trail this weekend. He is scheduled to appear at a CNN town hall in Fort Worth on Wednesday, October 14.
Details of UMass Lowell/YouGov Poll
The latest poll surveyed 850 likely Texas voters between September 18 and 28. This poll has an adjusted margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
The results revealed that Paxton is ahead of Talarico among voters over the age of 65 by a margin of 58% to 38%. Older voters typically skew to the GOP, making this result not surprising. Conversely, Talarico leads among younger voters ages 18 to 29 by a margin of 49% to 37%. Talarico is also enjoying a slight lead with Hispanic voters at 48% to 42%. The Black vote is overwhelmingly breaking for Talarico, coming in at 67% to 17%.
This poll also surveyed respondents about Talarico's favorability. The results were nearly evenly split, at 42% favorable and 41% unfavorable. The surveyors did not ask about Paxton's favorability.
There is also a hotly contested race for the governorship happening in Texas. Incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott is still leading Gina Hinojosa 48% to 44%. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, making it a statistical tie.
The poll also revealed that 6% of voters are still undecided. Another 1% noted that they do not plan on voting in this election.
How does this latest poll compare to results over the last few weeks? Here is what recent polls indicated:
October 6 YouGov — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%
September 17 Emerson College — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%
October 3 The New York Times — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%
October 1 Fox News — Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%
September 27 Big Data Poll — Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%
September 23 Marist Poll — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%
September 22 Texas Southern University — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%
September 17 ReconMR Texas Poll — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%
While polling offers insight into the mind of the electorate, history has shown us that the surveys are not always the best indicators of how an election will unfold. The most critical aspect for any party is to focus its efforts on driving out the vote within its base. The one thing that these polls reveal with certainty is that the two races in Texas are going to come down to the wire.
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