Week 5 wraps up Monday night with Buffalo visiting Los Angeles, and it’s hard to imagine a better way to close it out.

Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford have already given us one unforgettable meeting. The last time they faced off at SoFi Stadium, the Rams won 44–42 even though Allen accounted for six touchdowns. The game featured 86 points, nearly 1,000 yards of offense, and a blocked punt that ended up being the difference in a two-point thriller. It’d be fun to see another shootout like that, but those games are almost impossible to recreate on purpose. Still, both teams have spent the first month of 2026 making a strong case that another wild finish is possible — just maybe not in the same way.

The Bills are 3–1 after a 29–26 loss to New England exposed some issues with sustaining drives. The Rams are 2–2 after rallying past Philadelphia in the fourth quarter, though they’re still working to turn big yardage into cleaner football. Buffalo can make a defense pay for one bad angle. Los Angeles can move defenders around until a good angle disappears.

Buffalo Can’t Live On The Highlight Reel

Buffalo leads the league with 22 plays of at least 20 yards and averages 31.8 points per game. Allen can hit Keon Coleman deep, turn a busted play into a first down with his legs, or hand the ball to James Cook and watch him find a crease before the defense has time to catch up. This offense can wipe away a mistake in a hurry.

The problem is that Buffalo's been making more mistakes to erase. The Bills scored 36 against Houston and 41 against Detroit, then needed their defense to survive five offensive turnovers in a 24–16 win over the Chargers. Against New England, Buffalo ran 17 fewer plays than the Patriots. Their points per possession dropped from 3.67 over the first two games to 2.27 over the next two. The big plays are still there. It’s the routine plays in between that haven’t been as dependable.

That’s a risky habit against a Rams defense giving up just 247.5 yards a game, including 145.5 through the air. Allen will have chances to attack downfield. He also needs to be willing to take the five-yard throw and stop expecting a great play to save every drive.

One concept to watch if you’re new to the X’s and O’s: Buffalo’s three-tight-end package, called 13 personnel. It looks like a formation built for the run, and with Cook behind Allen, the Rams have to treat it that way. But Dalton Kincaid can slip into the space a linebacker leaves behind, while Allen can turn a broken play into a scramble and a first down. Buffalo's used three tight ends on 66 plays through four games and scored four touchdowns from that grouping. The question is whether those heavier looks can give Allen easy, repeatable looks while still creating chances for the big play.

Kincaid could use more work. He ran a route on only 17 of Buffalo’s 34 dropbacks against New England, and coach Joe Brady admitted he hadn’t done enough to get him involved. If D.J. Moore’s shoulder keeps him limited — he didn’t practice Thursday — getting Kincaid back into the passing game becomes even more important.

A defense that only has to worry about Coleman over the top and Cook on the ground has a much easier job.

The Rams Have To Make Their Pressure Look Different

Los Angeles just gave Philadelphia a miserable afternoon. The Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down and 1-for-4 on fourth. According to Fantasy Points Data charting, the Rams blitzed Jalen Hurts on 60.6% of his dropbacks, their highest rate in a game under defensive coordinator Chris Shula. Byron Young finished the win with two sacks on Philadelphia’s last possession.

Trying that exact plan against Allen would be asking for trouble. He can beat a free rusher with a quick throw, or make that defender miss and take off through the space he left behind. Shula still needs to show pressure, though. The trick is making Buffalo figure out who’s actually coming without handing Allen an obvious place to throw.

A defender might crowd the line and bail out after the snap. A rusher could come from somewhere the protection wasn’t expecting. Those looks can buy the front a split second without necessarily sending an extra man. But the coverage still has to hold up. If it doesn’t, Allen will find the open receiver before the disguise has done much of anything.

Young, who has 3.5 sacks and 22 pressures, is the most productive threat Buffalo has to account for. Aaron Donald missed the Eagles game with back soreness, but Sean McVay said Thursday that he expects Donald and cornerback Jaylen Watson to play if their recoveries continue. That’s encouraging, but there's no telling just how good Donald feels even if he does suit up in this one.

The Rams’ Movement Has A Purpose

Buffalo’s defense is dealing with a different kind of stress here. Stafford isn’t going to run out of a bad play the way Allen can. He’s going to see where the defense is leaning and always make sure they're checked into the right play.

The Rams are averaging 417 yards a game, second-most in the league. Puka Nacua came back from injury against Philadelphia and caught nine passes for 125 yards. Davante Adams gives Stafford another receiver who can win even when the pocket isn’t perfectly clean. Kyren Williams added 80 rushing yards, 67 receiving yards, and two late touchdowns in that comeback. Buffalo can’t spend the whole night treating any one of those guys like the only problem.

The Rams concept to watch: Nacua motioning across the formation before the snap. Against the Eagles, Los Angeles handed him the ball on a jet sweep for a touchdown. The next time he moves, Buffalo has to decide whether to follow him, stay put against Williams, or get ready for Stafford to throw behind the motion. It’s not just window dressing. The motion forces defenders to show what they’re thinking and can give Stafford a cleaner answer before the rush gets there.

Buffalo defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard knows the pass rush and coverage haven’t consistently worked together. Against Stafford, that could hurt. Pressure that gets there a beat late might just open a throwing lane to Nacua or Adams. Buffalo's also been called for nine defensive holding penalties, the most in the league through four weeks. Giving this offense a free first down after finally getting to third down is a pretty painful way to extend a drive.

The Rams have some cleanup to do, too. They’re turning only a little more than half of their red-zone trips into touchdowns, and Stafford threw two interceptions against Philadelphia. To make things worse, Adams didn’t practice Thursday, so his status is worth watching. Moving the ball beautifully between the 20s won’t mean much if Allen gets it back after a field goal.

Who Gets The Last Possession?

That’s the fourth-quarter question: can either defense make the other quarterback earn every yard?

In 2024, Buffalo scored 21 fourth-quarter points against the Rams and still lost. Last week, the Bills took a late lead over New England and couldn’t hold onto it. The Rams, meanwhile, needed their defense to get Stafford one more chance before Williams scored the winner in Philadelphia. These teams have given us plenty of evidence that a lead with five minutes left is more of a suggestion than a guarantee.

Buffalo wants to show their offense can be explosive without becoming streaky. Los Angeles wants to prove that their late push in Philadelphia was the start of a cleaner, more reliable version of this team.

I trust the Rams a little more at home. Nacua being back gives Stafford the kind of moving piece that makes the whole offense tougher to defend, and Los Angeles has shown they can come up with a stop when they really need one. Allen will do something ridiculous because, well, that’s what Josh Allen does. But I think the Rams make him do it one too many times to win.

Pick: Rams 30, Bills 24.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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