Fernando Mendoza is alone at the top. That part feels easy. He’s the clear top quarterback in the group, and more importantly, he looks like the only passer here who consistently gives off real franchise-quarterback energy on tape. After that, though, this thing gets messy in a hurry.

That’s what makes this class interesting. Even though it may not be loaded with talent, once you get past Mendoza, it stops being about “who’s good” and turns into “what are you willing to live with?” Do you want the guy who sees it and keeps things on schedule, even if the physical upside isn’t huge? Do you want the athlete who can make something out of nothing, even if the passing still feels a little shaky? Or do you trust the experienced guy who’s played a ton of ball, even if you’re not totally sure how much of that actually translates on Sundays?

Tier 1: Ty Simpson, Carson Beck

This is the tier for the two guys behind Mendoza who already feel like actual quarterbacks — mentally wired the right way, comfortable running an offense, and with enough baseline talent to hold up. Certainly not stars. Probably not even starters. But guys you can see sticking around in a room and helping you survive a few games when the starter gets hurt, maybe even holding things together as a bridge for a year if you had to.

That doesn’t mean I’m sold on either one as a long-term answer. There’s a real gap between them and Mendoza, and both come with pretty clear limits. The ceilings aren’t very high here. It’s more about the floor — guys who can operate, keep things on schedule, and not drown you — rather than guys you’re betting on to carry you.

Ty Simpson Might Not Wow You — But He Makes Sense At QB2

Simpson isn’t QB2 for me because he blows you away physically. He doesn’t.

He’s QB2 because, at his best, he actually looks like he’s running an offense — not just hanging on and making plays when things break.

That shows up over and over. The numbers are solid — 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, five picks in 2025 — but it’s more about how he gets there. He processes fast enough, stays on schedule, and he’s comfortable living in the middle of the field. He’ll take what’s there instead of chasing the highlight every snap, which, in this class, stands out more than it probably should.

You saw it throughout the year, too. The Georgia game in the regular season, the touch throwing down the field, the stuff over the middle — when the pocket's clean, he’s on time and in control. Nothing crazy, nothing flashy, just doing his job over and over.

That’s also why you keep seeing people land on him as QB2. Coaches tend to trust guys who make the offense feel like it's working the way it was designed to. Simpson does that more than most of this group. He sees it, he’s not trying to be a hero every play, and there’s just enough anticipation in there to believe he can operate real NFL concepts.

Now, the issues are real.

He’s not built like Mendoza. The arm isn’t special. He doesn’t move incredibly well or have Beck’s natural juice as a thrower. And when things start to speed up on him, it can get rough. You saw that too — late in the year, when pressure showed up, he’d get stuck and just hold onto the ball. He seemed to lose that quick decision-making that made him work in the first place.

That’s the give-and-take with him. When it’s going good, he looks like a guy who can run your offense. When it’s not, you start to feel the limits pretty quickly.

For me, it comes down to this: I trust what Simpson is trying to do more than I trust what most of these other guys are trying to become.

Does he have the highest ceiling in this group? Probably not. But Simpson gives you the clearest path to something usable. He’s the easiest one to picture sitting for a bit, getting reps, and then a year later you can actually put him out there and feel okay about it.

Carson Beck Forces You To Pick What You Value

If you told me Beck should be alone in his own tier between Simpson and Daniels, I wouldn’t yell at you. If you told me he should be below Daniels because you trust the traits more than the resume, I’d at least hear you out.

That’s what Beck is in this class. He’s an argument starter.

On paper, there’s plenty to like. He threw for 3,813 yards and 30 touchdowns at Miami in 2025. There are still some evaluators who believe he offers one of the better paths to a legit starter in the class because of his experience, feel from the pocket, and comfort operating a real passing game. He's played a lot of meaningful football. He's seen a lot. And unlike some of the more toolsy names in this group, Beck shouldn't feel overwhelmed by an NFL playbook.

The arm jumps out right away. It’s easy, it’s confident, and he’s not flinching at any throw on the field. Even when the ball placement isn’t perfect, you keep coming back to the same thing: there’s real juice in his arm, and he trusts it.

That’s the Beck pitch.

He doesn’t need everything to be perfect to look functional. There’s enough natural ability and enough reps against real defenses that you can see how it could work if things settle in around him. Three straight 3,000-yard seasons isn’t nothing either — and doing it on different teams.

But this is also where it gets tricky with him.

The issues aren’t new. When pressure shows up, things can get a little loose. He’ll try to play hero and throw his way out of sacks. (That gets real dangerous, real fast.) The ball will sail on him at times. And the biggest knock on Beck has always been how he plays in the biggest moments.

That’s why you hear such a wide range on him. Some see a steady, experienced quarterback who could hold things together in the right situation. Others see a guy who looks the part more than he actually impacts games.

I’m kind of in the middle.

I think Beck belongs in Tier 1 because the path is there. He’s played enough, seen enough, and has enough arm to at least give you something workable at the next level. But I also don’t think this needs to be overcomplicated. He’s not some hidden gem the league is missing.

He’s a solid, experienced quarterback with some real strengths — and some pretty clear limitations.

That still has value. It just doesn’t come with a ton of room for growth.

And honestly, that’s why he’s here with Simpson. Different styles, different strengths, but they land in the same place for me. The gap between them isn’t as big as it’s being made out to be — they just get there in different ways. 

Tier 2: Jalon Daniels, Taylen Green

This is the bet-on-tools-and-development tier.

These are the guys that make you lean forward a bit. They can move, extend plays, and make something out of nothing when a play falls apart. That part is real. But as passers, there’s still a lot you’re betting on.

They’re not as steady or as proven in the core stuff as Simpson and Beck. But they stress defenses in ways the other tiers don’t.

Jalon Daniels Feels Like More Than Just A Gadget QB

Daniels is one of those guys where the rankings don’t always line up with how people actually talk about him. He doesn’t get pushed near the top of boards, but you’ll hear way more respect for his game once you get past the surface-level stuff.

And part of that is because there’s real substance here. He didn’t just pop up for one good stretch — he finished his Kansas career with over 9,200 passing yards, 67 touchdowns through the air, and more than 10,000 total yards of offense. This isn’t some “tools only, we’ll figure it out later” type of projection like we've seen in the past. There’s actual production, actual reps, actual football behind it.

Even in 2025, it was solid across the board — 2,531 yards, 22 touchdowns, seven picks — nothing that’s going to blow you away, but enough there that with the movement and flashes, he deserves to be right in the mix.

The appeal with Daniels shows up pretty quickly. He’s a real running threat, not just scrambling to survive but actually creating with it. There’s a good feel for pressure, too — he doesn’t panic right away and can buy himself time without completely losing the play. And some of the smaller things stand out more than you’d expect in this class, like being willing to just throw it away and move on.

There are also some legitimately encouraging flashes as a passer. When he’s working through the middle of the field, you’ll see layered throws that look like real NFL concepts, not just college spacing stuff. He’s taken snaps under center, worked through reads, and there are moments where it looks like it’s starting to come together instead of just being athleticism carrying everything.

That’s a big reason why I have him so high.

Daniels still feels like a real quarterback first, not just an athlete who happens to be playing the position.

Is he a finished product? Not even close. There’s still stuff to clean up mechanically, and there are definitely moments where he tries to do a little too much. And he’s not some freak-tier athlete like an Anthony Richardson, where you’re just betting on rare tools carrying everything. Similar running style, sure, but Daniels is already a little more under control as a passer and far more experienced.

That’s why it’s hard to drop him too far.

The path is there. It’s going to take some work, but you can still see how he can turn into a problem for defenses if it all starts to click.

Taylen Green Is The Biggest Swing For Upside

If you’re drafting nothing but traits, Green has one of the strongest cases in the whole group behind Mendoza.

The first thing that hits you with Green is the size and the movement. He looks like a quarterback you’d build in a lab. Big frame, easy speed, and the numbers back it up. He was in the 4.3s at the combine, and it shows on tape. At Arkansas in 2025, he threw for 2,714 yards and 19 touchdowns, then added 777 on the ground with eight more scores. That’s a lot to deal with from one player.

And it’s not just straight-line stuff. He moves well. He’s smooth, not stiff. When he’s on the move, he's surprisingly accurate, and as a runner, he eats up space fast without looking like he’s doing much. Those long strides sneak up on you.

That’s what pulls you in. But you also have to live with the other side of it.

Too many of the bad plays come from him deciding what he’s doing before the ball is even snapped. He gets locked onto one guy and will just throw it up for grabs. You see the arm strength, you’ll see the flashes, and then you’ll get a throw that just makes you stop and go, “What was that?”

And that’s the difference. The tools are there. The consistency isn’t.

That’s why you get such a split on him. Some people see the body, the speed, the arm and think this is one of the few guys in the class who could actually turn into something big if it clicks. A couple have gone as far as to say that he has the highest ceiling of anyone in this class. Others look at the passing and think it’s too far off to even take a flyer.

I get both sides.

But the passing has to get better. That’s the whole conversation with him. If that doesn’t take a real step early, he might have to start thinking about a position change just to stick around.

And yeah, in a class like this, I understand why teams would talk themselves into it. If you’re going to swing, this is the kind of athlete you swing on.

I’m just not ready to push him any higher because of it. I still need to see more quarterback and less “what if.”

Honestly, Green landing this high might be more of an indictment on the group behind him than it is an endorsement of his play.

Tier 3: Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar, Cade Klubnik

This is the frustrating middle.

These are the quarterbacks who, not that long ago, felt like they’d be part of the real conversation at the top. Now you’re looking at them and wondering how many even hear their name early on Day 2.

Nussmeier probably feels the most like an actual quarterback when things are on schedule, but I'm not sure how much room he has to grow.

Allar is the opposite in a lot of ways — looks the part, has the arm, checks the boxes from a distance — but the tape never fully matches the pedigree.

Klubnik is the one who kept getting chance after chance to grab control of this group and just never really did.

Garrett Nussmeier Is The Least Stressful Evaluation In This Group

If you just list out what Nussmeier does well, it’s pretty easy to talk yourself into him.

He sees it well enough, he’s comfortable working the middle, and there are real flashes of anticipation. Even though he's not the slightest bit of a running threat, he can work the pocket to buy some extra time. There isn't a huge arm, but he can put enough on throws to live in tighter windows. There’s actual quarterbacking there.

But the downside shows up just as fast. The picks aren’t subtle. That’s been part of his game for a while — the same aggression that gives him some life also brings a few too many bad decisions with it.

And there are some real physical questions. He’s not the biggest, the arm isn’t going to bail him out, and coming off a shaky final stretch, durability and consistency are fair concerns.

Still, I can’t drop him lower than this because he’s one of the few guys in this class where the evaluation actually starts with playing quarterback, not just traits.

He feels more like a high-end backup — maybe a little more if everything lines up right — but in this class, that’s enough to put him at the top of this tier.

Drew Allar Looks The Part — The Tape Keeps You Waiting

Allar was supposed to be at the top of this class.

He looks the part. Big frame, easy arm, can drive the ball to spots a lot of these guys can’t. You’ll get a few throws every game that remind you why the hype stuck around as long as it did.

But the deeper you go, the more it starts to slip.

The profile still draws you in — and that’s why he keeps popping up in the middle of boards. He’s not some afterthought. But once you get past the body and the flashes, it’s the same stuff over and over. The timing runs hot and cold. The accuracy can really drift. It’s a lot of “you see it… and then you don’t.”

There are positives you don’t want to ignore. He’ll stand in and take hits. There are stretches where he handles pressure better than people give him credit for, and when the rhythm is right, the ball can come out on time with real zip. That’s the version teams will chase.

But then you get the other side — late balls, forced decisions, drives that stall because he didn't see someone wide open. That’s really the Allar experience. He keeps you hanging around, thinking it’s about to click… and then it just kind of levels off again.

I still think he belongs above the bottom tier. There’s too much size, arm, and overall talent for him to fall that far. Someone is going to look at that and think they can clean it up.

I get why.

I’m just not ready to move him any higher because at this point, you’d like to see more of the details locked in. The tools are there. The consistency still isn’t.

Cade Klubnik: The Hype Never Came Back

Klubnik’s probably the easiest example here of how fast hype can fade once the games start actually being played.

Coming into the year, it felt like everything was lined up for him — big-time recruit, flashes on tape, plenty of chances. It looked like his spot to take.

And it just… never really happened.

That doesn’t mean there’s nothing there. You still see the arm pop. There’s some movement ability. Every now and then you’ll get a throw or a drive that reminds you why people bought in to begin with.

But that’s kind of the issue — it’s still flashes.

You keep coming back to the same question: what are you actually getting on a down-to-down basis? Because right now, it’s hard to pin that down.

The production in 2025 — 2,943 yards, 16 touchdowns — is fine. It’s just not what anyone expected at this point. Not for someone who was supposed to push toward the top of the class.

Nussmeier gives you more consistent quarterbacking. Allar at least gives you the prototype and some higher-end flashes. Klubnik still feels like you’re betting on what you thought he could be — and at this point, that’s a tougher sell.

Tier 4: Haynes King, Cole Payton

This is the tier where it’s fun to talk about them… and a little harder to actually buy it.

Both of these guys had real college success. Both have traits you can point to and say, “there’s something there.” And if you squint, you can absolutely sketch out a role for each of them.

But once you try to picture them doing it against better speed and throwing into tighter windows, it starts to get harder to see.

Haynes King Made It Look Easy — That Won’t Be The Case Next Level

King had a great year at Georgia Tech. He put up 2,967 passing yards, added 953 on the ground, accounted for 29 total touchdowns, and completed just under 70 percent of his throws. If this was just about college performance, he’d be much higher.

But once you start projecting it forward, things change.

He’s a good athlete, but not quite the kind that scares defenses the same way at the next level. A lot of the offense was quick reads, three-steps-and-throw stuff, which worked there, but doesn’t always work as well against the speed of the NFL. And when you take away some of that structure, you start to wonder what’s left.

That’s the push and pull with him.

He can move, extend, keep plays alive, and there’s a toughness to his game you like. But when you shrink it down to “what does this look like against NFL speed?” it starts to feel more like a solid backup in the right system than a real shot at something bigger.

Cole Payton Is Climbing Boards — I’m Sitting This One Out

Payton’s a weird one — fun in flashes, frustrating once you try to pin it down.

The production is real. Nearly 72% completions, 2,719 yards, 16 TDs to 4 picks, plus 777 on the ground with 13 more scores. He’s 6-3, 230+, moves well, and as a runner he can tilt numbers in your favor. That part shows up right away, and it’s why you keep seeing him pop on some boards.

I also know I’m lower on him than a lot of people. I get why teams would be intrigued — big, athletic, lefty, efficient year, flashes of touch. But when you project it forward, I just don’t buy what the rushing element looks like against NFL speed, and the arm strength is a real limiter. The ball doesn’t consistently drive outside or late over the middle, and that shrinks your margin for error fast.

If you’re trying to put a name to it, it ends up feeling like a better running but worse passing version of Tua Tagovailoa — and that’s not an even trade-off. The accuracy is pretty good, but without the arm to threaten the full field, defenses are going to squeeze you.

Add in the fact that he did this against FCS competition with just one year as a full-time starter and a delivery that can get a little funky — and it’s just a tougher projection than the numbers make it seem.

All stats courtesy of Sports Reference.

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