If you came into this series expecting a clean sweep or a dominant narrative, well, that idea got tossed in the first fourth quarter. Four games in, and we’ve got a Finals that’s been everything but predictable. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers have gone back and forth like it’s a backyard game of 21 — every time one team looks like they’re pulling away, the other swings right back. 

That hasn't impacted the oddsmakers' thinking, who clearly still love OKC. They’ve been the favorite from the jump and haven't done a whole lot to lose that label. But Indiana? Man, they’ve scrapped their way through every round and keep finding new ways to stay alive — whether it’s a late-game dagger from Haliburton or Mathurin coming off the bench like a human fireball. The Pacers weren’t supposed to be here. They sure weren’t supposed to be hanging around in a tied series with the league MVP and a Thunder squad that’s been steamrolling the West. But here they are.

Four Games, Four Different Stories

Game 1 – Tyrese Time (Pacers 111, Thunder 110)

Game 1 started out like a lot of people expected. The Thunder were in control for most of the night, playing with the pace, poise, and defensive intensity you’d expect from a team that had just marched through the Western Conference. By the fourth quarter, they had built a 15-point lead, and it looked like they were going to coast to an early 1-0 series lead.

But then things got weird.

Indiana, to their credit, didn’t fold. Not even close. Pascal Siakam started carving up mismatches, Myles Turner grabbed a couple of momentum-swinging boards, and Obi Toppin got the bench going with a burst of energy. The Pacers chipped away possession by possession, eventually tying the game in the final minute thanks to a 12-2 run that felt like it came out of nowhere.

Then, with the shot clock turned off and the game tied at 110, Tyrese Haliburton got the rock and went to work. You could feel it coming. He dribbled the clock down and found himself matched up with Lu Dort — one of the toughest defenders in the league. No problem. Haliburton used a hesitation to freeze him, pulled up from just beyond the elbow, and buried the jumper with 0.3 seconds left on the clock.

That was it. Thunder fans were stunned. OKC didn’t even get a shot off on the final possession. And just like that, Indiana stole Game 1 on the road — despite trailing the entire way until that last bucket. It was the kind of moment that sets the tone for a series, and it reminded everyone that the Pacers weren’t just along for the ride — they came to punch back. 

Game 2 – SGA Strikes Back (Thunder 123, Pacers 107)

After the gut-punch loss in Game 1, all eyes were on how the Thunder would respond. Would they come out flat, or would they show why they’ve been the betting favorite for most of the postseason? Mark Daigneault clearly didn’t want to wait around to find out. From the jump, OKC came out like a team on a mission, blitzing the Pacers with a 37–17 first quarter that left no doubt they were still very much in control of their own narrative.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looked every bit the league MVP. He was getting to his spots, controlling the tempo, and picking apart Indiana’s defense like a veteran quarterback reading a busted coverage. He dropped 38 on the night, making it look effortless, and more importantly, reminding everyone that when he's locked in, there might not be a better closer in the league.

Jalen Williams chipped in a smooth 24, slashing to the rim and hitting timely jumpers that helped stretch the lead anytime the Pacers threatened to make a push. And Chet Holmgren turned rim protection into art, swatting five shots and altering at least a half dozen more. Every time Indiana tried to find something in the paint, Chet was there, arms up and instincts sharp.

But what really made Game 2 feel like a statement was how complete the Thunder looked. The bench was active, the ball was moving, and they didn’t let up — even when the lead ballooned.

Game 3 – Mathurin’s Moment (Pacers 116, Thunder 107)

Back inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the Pacers knew they had to deliver something special to keep up the fight. And Bennedict Mathurin brought the kind of spark off the bench that coaches dream about in the Finals. Mathurin scored 27 points in just 22 minutes, playing like a man possessed. Every time the Thunder thought they had a handle on things, he’d rip off a bucket or two and swing momentum right back to the Pacers.

But it was the start of the fourth quarter where he truly flipped the game on its head. Indiana had been trailing by five and was in danger of letting the game slip, but Mathurin’s 10-point outburst during a key stretch gave the Pacers a jolt of energy they never let go of.

That fourth-quarter shift became the difference. Indiana went from trying to keep it close to playing with the lead, and once they got their nose in front, they never looked back.

Game 4 – Thunder Flip the Script (Thunder 111, Pacers 104)

For most of Game 4, it felt like the Pacers were about to do something huge — go up 3-1 and put a real stranglehold on this series. Then the switch flipped.

Oklahoma City closed the game on a 31–15 run, completely turning the tide in the final stretch. And at the center of it all was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The league MVP reminded everyone why he earned that honor, dropping 15 points in the final five minutes alone. Pull-ups, stepbacks, floaters, drawing contact — he hit every shot in the book.

Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso stepped up big-time too. Williams added 27, continuing his stellar postseason run, while Caruso came off the bench and poured in 20, playing with that classic do-everything grit he’s known for. Holmgren didn’t put up a monster scoring line, but his presence in the paint was huge — he cleaned up the glass and altered a bunch of Indy’s shots down the stretch.

Indiana, meanwhile, ran out of gas. Their offense stalled in the fourth, and they couldn’t buy a bucket when they needed it most. What looked like a golden opportunity to take control of the Finals slipped through their fingers.

Thunder Still Favored Like It’s 3–1, Not 2–2

Here’s where things get a little weird. Despite the series being tied 2–2, FanDuel’s got the Pacers listed at –520 to win the whole thing. That’s a pretty heavy number for a series that’s felt like a coin flip through four games. Sure, Indiana has been scrappy, and they’ve found ways to hang around late in games — but laying over five-to-one juice? That’s steep.

On the flip side, OKC sits at +102 to win the series in six games. So, if you’re thinking the Thunder take care of business in Game 5 at home and then close it out in Indy, there’s a path to a plus-money payout without needing a Game 7.

There’s also the Pacers at –126 just to force a Game 7 — not win it, just push it back to OKC.

Why the Books Love OKC

1. The SGA Rule

When you have the league MVP—and he’s playing like it—the default assumption is "He’ll figure it out." Gilgeous‑Alexander’s last five playoff close‑outs? 34, 32, 33, 38, and 35 points. He hunts matchups, manipulates pace, and lives at the line (10.4 free‑throw attempts per game). Carlisle has tried Turner on him in switches, Siakam in a roaming role, even a sprinkle of box‑and‑one. None of it has stuck for 48 minutes.

2. Size and Speed

The Thunder can roll out a 7’1" rim‑protector (Holmgren) without sacrificing pace. That’s a nightmare for Indy’s Hali‑and‑shoot attack, which loves early drag screens and lay‑ups before the defense is set. When Holmgren plugs the paint, Indiana’s best counter is Siakam spin‑drives or Haliburton floaters — shots the analytics crowd is happy to live with.

3. The "Bounce‑Back" Trend

Oklahoma City hasn’t lost consecutive games since February. They’re 11‑2 straight up after a loss this season and 8‑3 ATS at home in these playoffs. When the market sees that kind of resiliency, it keeps the favorite juice heavy.

The Case for Indy (a.k.a. "Why +400 Isn’t Crazy")

1. Haliburton Hasn’t Hit His Ceiling Yet

Through four games, Tyrese Haliburton’s numbers haven’t exactly jumped off the page — he’s averaging just 17.8 points per game in the Finals. But if you’ve been watching, you know there’s more in the tank. His efficiency has been solid with a 59 percent true shooting percentage, which tells you he’s not forcing bad looks — he’s just not asserting himself for long stretches.

The thing is, when Haliburton does take over, he changes the game. We saw it in Game 1, when he drilled the game-winner. But those takeover moments have only come in short spurts — two or three possessions here and there. If he stretches that dominance across an entire quarter or two, it’s a totally different challenge for Oklahoma City. The Thunder’s defense has been strong, but they haven’t had to deal with a fully unleashed Haliburton yet. If that gear shows up in Game 5 or beyond, it could tilt the whole series.

2. Siakam’s Matchup Nightmare

Pascal Siakam has been a real problem for the Thunder all series long. He’s picking his spots and going to work in the mid-post, especially when he’s matched up with smaller defenders. When OKC switches and he ends up with a guard on him, he’s been bullying his way to clean looks. And when Holmgren gets pulled out of the paint to deal with Siakam one-on-one, it opens up everything else for Indiana inside.

Across three wins over OKC this season — including the regular season — Siakam has averaged 24.7 points on 61 percent shooting. That’s not a fluke. Indiana’s going to keep forcing those mismatches until Daigneault comes up with an answer. Whether it’s doubling earlier or changing the switch rules, something’s gotta give, or Siakam is going to keep eating.

3. Strength in Numbers

Bennedict Mathurin’s 27-point outburst in Game 3 got all the attention — and rightfully so — but the Pacers’ bench production has been good all series. In fact, they’re outscoring OKC’s reserves by nearly 18 points per game. That kind of depth matters, especially in a series that’s starting to show signs of physical wear and tear.

If Game 5 ends up being one of those foul-heavy, whistle-driven nights — and it very well could — the deeper team is going to benefit. Indiana’s got guys like Toppin, McConnell, and Nesmith who can give them real minutes without a drop-off. OKC, meanwhile, has leaned heavily on their starters and a short rotation. If things get chaotic and both benches are forced into bigger roles, Indiana might have the edge there too.

Three X‑Factors That Could Break the Stalemate

1. Myles Turner’s Foul Count – Turner has logged over 34 minutes just once this series thanks to early foul trouble. Keep him on the floor, and Holmgren’s offensive rebound buffet dries up.

2. Luguentz Dort’s Jumper – Indy is ignoring him in weak‑side corners to clog SGA’s driving lanes. If Dort buries two quick threes, Carlisle has to pick a poison he hates.

3. Pace Wars – Games 1 and 3 averaged 102 possessions (Indy wins). Games 2 and 4 sat at 97 possessions (OKC wins). Whoever dictates tempo Monday likely dictates the scoreboard.

Prediction Time

Game 5

The Paycom crowd has been absolutely electric all postseason, and it’s no secret the Thunder thrive off that energy. You can feel the intensity in the building when SGA starts cooking or when Caruso dives for a loose ball. And given how well OKC responds to adversity, betting on them to show up in a big way in Game 5 doesn’t feel like a stretch.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to look like the best player on the floor more often than not. He’s been a steady hand in chaos, and you can just sense he’s got another big night in him. With the Pacers needing everything to go right to steal a game on the road, I’ll ride with OKC to cover the spread and keep the momentum rolling.

Rest of the Series

If I had to lean one way, I still think the Thunder wrap this thing up in six. They’ve got the better balance, the best player, and they’ve shown they know how to close. Game 5 feels like a big momentum swing back in their favor, and if they ride that into Indiana, they could absolutely finish it on the road.

That said, it wouldn’t totally shock me if the Pacers respond with something wild in Game 6. They’ve been doing it all postseason — getting hot at the right time, squeezing just enough out of their depth, and finding late-game magic when no one expects it. A comeback win at home to force a Game 7 feels very much on-brand for them.

But even if this thing does go seven, I just don’t see OKC letting that slip. Not at home. Not with SGA playing the way he is. I’d expect them to come out firing, play fast, and take control early — basically end it before the Pacers even get a chance to settle in.

All that being said, the Pacers are just an easy team to root for. They play hard, they’ve got personality, and they’ve been beating the odds all postseason. Between Haliburton’s flair, Siakam’s steady impact, and guys like Mathurin going off when it matters, there’s something genuinely fun about this group. I think a lot of fans — myself included — would love to see them pull it off.

But pulling for them and seeing a real path are two different things. I just don’t think it’s realistic right now. OKC’s talent and composure in big moments has shown up time and time again, and unless something crazy happens in Game 6, I just don’t see Indiana having enough left in the tank to swing it.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com.