2028 Presidential Race: Harris and Vance Lead Early Polling
With the midterm elections quickly approaching, many political experts are already turning their eyes toward the 2028 presidential election. It is still way too early to predict which politicians will emerge as the top candidates to receive their party's coveted nomination. But new polling is revealing who is starting to pick up steam. Read on for a sneak peek at what to expect.
Former Vice President Harris Still in the Driver's Seat for the Democrats
A new poll released by Harvard CAPS/HarrisX at the beginning of the month is shedding some light on who bears watching heading into the next presidential election. As expected, former Vice President Kamala Harris is leading the early favorability polling for the Democrats.
Despite losing the 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump, Harris is still the preferred candidate of her party, leading the pack with 42%. Harris has remained on the sidelines since her unsuccessful presidential run; however, you can expect her to start becoming more visible if she decides to give it another shot.
Coming in second is California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 18%. Newsom spent time in South Carolina last week, leading many experts to speculate that he was testing the waters for a run at the Oval Office. The location was important, as South Carolina is the site of the first Democratic presidential primary. Newsom is a term-limited governor scheduled to vacate his post in California in January.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is tied with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9%. Buttigieg has largely stayed out of politics since the end of the Biden White House. Buttigieg has led many other early 2028 polls and has done nothing to shut down the speculation. When interviewed in August, he noted that he is "more inclined than not" to enter the race. The relatively new dad said that his ultimate decision will depend on a number of factors.
Meanwhile, Ocasio-Cortez is considered to be one of the leaders of the progressive faction of the Democratic Party. The congresswoman from the Bronx has endeared herself to young voters because of her policies.
Vice President Vance Leads the Pack Early for the GOP
Looking at the Republicans, current Vice President JD Vance enjoys a comfortable advantage in the early polling, garnering 44% support from those polled. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a distant second with 21% of the support. Just behind Rubio at 18% is the president's son, Donald Trump Jr.
The Trump family has signaled in recent months that they want to keep the White House in the family. While Trump Jr. will certainly have the support of the most ardent MAGA supporters, his lack of political experience is expected to hold him back if he has to go up against Vance and Rubio.
During last week's White House media briefing, Vance was asked if he could see himself supporting either Sen. Ted Cruz or Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth for the party's nomination. Vance lauded Cruz, saying “Clearly Ted is a very authentic and likable guy, and I’m sure he’ll do great."
Cruz continues to fuel the rumors that he is going to throw his hat in the ring. During a recent appearance on Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick's podcast, Cruz said that "It's no secret that I want to be president." The established senator from Texas finished second to Trump during the 2016 GOP primaries. While the two had a contentious relationship years ago, they have since reportedly mended those fences.
It is not unusual for a vice president to be the heir apparent to an outgoing president, making Vance the natural leader early in the speculation. The vice president's wife, Usha Vance, recently told Fox News that she was keeping an "open mind and open heart" to a potential run from her husband.
Meanwhile, the current president has been surprisingly quiet about who he will throw his support behind in 2028. Trump has yet to endorse a specific successor to his office despite being asked for his opinion several times.
The president has frequently praised both Rubio and Vance for their political acumen. At a White House event in May, the president went so far as to call the duo a "perfect ticket," saying that they could be a "dream team" if they ran together. However, Trump was quick to note, "That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstances."
The poll asked 2,100 registered voters between August 28 and 30 who they would prefer in the election. According to Harvard CAPS/HarrisX, the poll has a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points.
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