The early window is packed, but the afternoon slate gives us a chance to slow down and focus on one game. Sure, you might keep an eye on the other scores, but unless you’re a diehard fan of one of those teams, there’s a pretty clear choice for the main screen.

Packers–Lions could have major implications for the entire NFC playoff picture, especially with the NFC North shaping up as one of the best divisions in football. That game kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX One.

The other two games come down to a much simpler question: Who can actually take control when the opportunity’s there?

Denver visits Arizona at 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. The Rams visit Las Vegas, with that game kicking off at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX One.

Broncos at Cardinals

Denver’s got a better record than Arizona, but this matchup isn’t as simple as the standings make it seem.

The Broncos just beat Seattle 17–14 in overtime despite only picking up 168 yards. Bo Nix threw for 107 yards, but Denver’s defense came up with five sacks and the interception that set up Wil Lutz’s game-winning field goal. That’s enough to survive one Sunday, but it’s a tough formula to rely on every week. The Broncos are averaging just 252.2 yards and 19 points per game, and Nix knows it hasn't been good enough:

I have to play better.

Arizona had almost the exact opposite problem in their 18–16 win over the Rams. The Cardinals picked up yard seemingly whenever they wanted and got it into the red zone five times, but they didn’t score a single touchdown on those trips. Chad Ryland made all six of his field-goal attempts, including the game-winner as time expired.

That's still an impressive upset, especially for a defense that had allowed 30-plus points in four straight games. But six field goals also point to a problem Arizona can’t afford to ignore against a Denver front that can blow up a drive with one big pressure.

The key may come inside Denver’s 20-yard line. Jacoby Brissett can lean on Trey McBride, but a pass rush led by Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen can quickly turn second-and-manageable into third-and-long. Pat Surtain's back at practice, but his status is still up in the air after the ankle. Cardinals rookie running back Jeremiyah Love also missed last week with an ankle injury.

Packers at Lions

This is the one to put on first. Green Bay's 4–2, Detroit's 3–2, and unbeaten Minnesota's sitting above both of them in the NFC North. The Lions are coming off a bye and opening back-to-back home games against Green Bay and Minnesota. A Lions win puts them ahead of the Packers and gives them the first head-to-head in their back pocket for later.

The matchup inside the matchup is almost too clean. Jared Goff has thrown 12 touchdowns without an interception in five games. Green Bay leads the league with nine picks. Detroit's scoring an NFL-best 32.8 points per game, with Jahmyr Gibbs already up to 504 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. The Packers have been on a bit of a hot streak defensively and have allowed 14 points or less in three straight games. Something’s got to give.

Green Bay's won three straight behind Jordan Love and that defense. Love threw for 276 yards in the 23–13 win over Dallas, and Matthew Golden and Christian Watson keep giving him chances downfield. Micah Parsons is still out, but the defense has held up. The big problem is that Green Bay managed just 57 rushing yards on 26 attempts against Dallas, who came in with the league’s worst run defense. The Packers are last in the league at 59.8 rushing yards per game.

Josh Jacobs is back at practice after coming off the commissioner’s exempt list, but Matt LaFleur still hasn’t committed to playing him. Detroit could get safety Brian Branch and center Cade Mays back; both practiced fully on Thursday.

If the Packers can’t run the ball, Detroit’s front can go after Love without having to worry much about the handoff. If Green Bay finds even a little balance, Love has the receivers to make them pay..

Rams at Raiders

The Rams are 2–4, even though they’re putting up 401.3 yards per game, which ranks third in the league. Their defense is also allowing less than 300 yards a game. The only other team to ever reach both of those marks were the 2007 Patriots. The Raiders started 3–0, then dropped three straight while still scoring 27 points a game. There’s talent on both sides, and plenty of football that looks promising right up until somebody has to actually finish the job.

Los Angeles just lost 18–16 to Arizona after taking the lead with 47 seconds left. Davante Adams is headed to injured reserve with a hamstring injury that’s expected to keep him out six to eight weeks. Defensive tackle Poona Ford and kicker Blake Grupe are both done for the season. Puka Nacua left practice early on Thursday with a calf issue, so his status is completely up in the air — and would be a huge deal with Adams already out.

Las Vegas can move the ball with Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers, but the run game is averaging just 79.2 yards, 30th in the NFL. Ashton Jeanty has 313 yards on 98 carries. In the 33–30 loss to Buffalo, the Raiders went 2-for-5 in the red zone and threw an interception that helped turn a tied game into a ten-point hole. The defense has also given up 30 or more points in three straight games.

Matthew Stafford leads the league with 1,794 passing yards, but Maxx Crosby can wreck a series if the Rams keep making Stafford carry everything.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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