The Patriots are heading to Germany after giving up 45 points at home. Now they’ve got to deal with an offense featuring Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams.

Not exactly the week you want to be figuring out your coverage.

New England’s 45-27 loss to Green Bay dropped the Patriots to 5-4 and exposed problems that won’t disappear just because the team changed time zones. Maye threw three first-half interceptions and the defense gave up seven explosive passing plays. Detroit, meanwhile, comes in at 6-2 with four straight wins.

Munich’s getting a meaningful November game. Whether they get a competitive one depends on whether New England can make Detroit work a little harder than Green Bay did.

There’s a Reason the NFL Keeps Coming Back

Sunday’s kickoff is at 9:30 a.m. Eastern, and 3:30 in Munich. FOX will have the broadcast from Allianz Arena, which is FC Bayern Munich's stadium.

For American viewers, it’s football before the usual Sunday routine has even gotten going. In Munich, it’s an afternoon game with a whole weekend built around it.

The NFL estimates Germany has more than 20 million fans, making it the league’s biggest fanbase in Europe. Munich hosted regular-season games in 2022 and 2024, and another one’s already scheduled for 2028. The league’s flag football program has also reached more than 40,000 young athletes in Germany since launching in 2020. So this is more than selling out a stadium once a year. There’s a real investment here.

These teams give fans something familiar to latch onto. New England’s bringing that championship history, including all six Super Bowl rings for display at its Munich fan headquarters. Detroit’s taking over Hofbräuhaus and hosting a fan festival with Big Sean and Kevin Saunderson. Apparently, packing light wasn’t really part of the plan.

Then there’s St. Brown. His mother, Miriam, is German. He speaks the language fluently, and he has dual citizenship. Back in March, he described playing football in Germany as something that’s “always been a dream of mine since I was a kid.”

Pressure’s Only Useful if It Gets There

New England’s path starts with Gibbs and the line of scrimmage. Keep him from putting Detroit in second-and-four all afternoon and give the pass rush a few chances to actually attack.

Simple enough on the whiteboard. A lot harder once Gibbs starts moving.

Gibbs is averaging 4.8 yards per carry with nine rushing touchdowns. Detroit ranks third in explosive-play rate, according to Fantasy Points Data, but the danger goes way past somebody outrunning the secondary. The Lions use play-action on 34.4% of their dropbacks, the league’s third-highest rate. New England ranks last in EPA allowed against it. That’s a rough combination.

Sell out to stop Gibbs, and the linebackers can leave space behind them. Keep everybody back and Gibbs gets room to work.

The Patriots also need to distinguish between sending pressure and actually creating it. They’re sixth in blitz rate this season but 20th in pressure rate. Goff doesn’t get rattled just because five guys are running toward him. Somebody has to get there.

That makes New England’s defensive front against Detroit’s protection the matchup I’m watching first. Can the Patriots disrupt the pocket without borrowing so much help from the secondary that St. Brown gets an easy answer underneath?

There’s a communication issue to clean up, too. Green Bay used quick snaps to catch New England during a few coverage adjustments. Three of those plays gained 40 or more yards.

Mike Vrabel’s response Wednesday was pretty direct:

When the center has his hand on the ball, we should probably be ready.

Hard to argue with the standard there. Against Detroit’s speed, getting lined up late will end in touchdowns.

Detroit Hasn’t Been Running Away From Everybody

Here’s what keeps this from being an automatic Lions pick: their offense hasn’t exactly been rolling over the last month.

Detroit’s last three wins came with 20, 19, and 19 points. In Miami, Goff threw for 170 yards without a touchdown and took three sacks. The Lions needed four Jake Bates field goals and an eight-yard Gibbs touchdown on fourth-and-one to win 19-9.

Their defense has carried more of the load lately. Detroit has held their last four opponents to 21 points or less, and Miami managed just 182 total yards without getting it into the end zone. That improvement deserves some credit, even if the season-long defensive numbers still look pretty rough.

Still, Maye should have chances. Fantasy Points Data has New England fifth in offensive explosive-play rate, and Detroit ranks 30th at preventing them. The Patriots don’t need to reinvent the offense to find some yards here.

They do need their quarterback to take what’s there. Against Green Bay, all three of Maye’s interceptions came on throws traveling more than 18 yards downfield. There’s a difference between trusting your arm and making every possession depend on it.

DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry should be involved early. Get some completions, stay out of obvious passing downs, and give the offensive line a chance to hold up. New England’s injury issues make that patience even more important, especially after Rhamondre Stevenson and multiple offensive linemen left the Packers game.

A.J. Brown being back out there would help, but traveling with the team doesn’t mean he’s cleared to play. Vrabel made that distinction Wednesday. Detroit has some uncertainty of their own: Goff, St. Brown, and Brian Branch were limited in Wednesday’s practice. Those are some key players from both sides of the ball.

The Pick

Lions 30, Patriots 21.

I think Maye gives New England enough offense to hang around. I’m just not sure the Patriots can make it through four quarters without giving Detroit a couple of big plays.

A loss drops the Patriots to 5-5 going into their bye, with another two weeks to figure out why the same things keep falling apart against good teams. Detroit would move to 7-2 before coming home for Tampa Bay and Chicago, keeping the Lions right in the middle of the NFC North race.

Keep an eye on Detroit’s first few second downs. If Gibbs is picking up four or five yards and Goff's getting the ball out before the rush gets there, New England could be in for a long afternoon.

Even if we’re watching it over breakfast.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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