Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes on Sunday. Lamar Jackson lasted one snap.

That’s how a pretty good Thursday night quarterback matchup turned into a game where Baltimore might hand the ball to an undrafted rookie making his first NFL start. Jackson had already missed three games with a high ankle sprain when he injured his throwing thumb on the Ravens’ first offensive play in Buffalo. He’ll need surgery and is headed to injured reserve.

To make matters worse, Tyler Huntley hurt his toe in that same game, and Jesse Minter said he’s probably not going to be ready to play Thursday. That leaves Joe Fagnano, who’s dealing with an ankle injury of his own, in line to start. Baltimore also brought Austin Reed back to the practice squad Monday.

Jacksonville's 5–2 and leads the AFC South after beating Indianapolis 42–7. Baltimore's lost three in a row. On paper, these offenses are still separated by only about 12 yards per game. But they get there in very different ways. Jacksonville's converted 48% of their third downs, and Lawrence is averaging 8.5 yards per throw. Baltimore's converted 39% and leans way more on the ground game. Thursday should tell us just that Ravens’ running game can carry.

Baltimore Could Use a Boring Night From Derrick Henry

The last time Derrick Henry played a Thursday night against Jacksonville, he ran for a 99-yard score. He was still a Titan then, and he finished that game with 238 yards and four touchdowns. The Ravens would gladly take a repeat. But honestly, what they really need is a steady stream of four-yard runs.

Henry has 632 rushing yards and eight touchdowns this season. Jacksonville is giving up 3.4 yards per carry and held Jonathan Taylor to 23 yards on eight attempts Sunday. But nose tackle DaVon Hamilton went down in that game and is out for the season. If the Ravens can move whoever takes his snaps and get a blocker up to Foyesade Oluokun, Henry should have room to get rolling before a linebacker gets a clean shot at him.

I’d keep an eye on the middle of Jacksonville’s line during Baltimore’s first two drives. That should tell us a lot about how much of the playbook the Ravens can actually use.

A steady run game also gives Baltimore a chance to get Zay Flowers involved. He had 608 receiving yards going into Buffalo and somehow left with exactly that many. Get him a quick throw with room to turn upfield. Let Mark Andrews settle over the middle after a run fake. If Baltimore gets to third-and-2, they can hand the ball to Henry again or ask Fagnano to make one quick read. That’s a whole lot better than asking him to find a receiver eight yards downfield while somebody’s coming free off the edge.

Jacksonville Wants to See Third-and-8

If Fagnano starts, he’s got the tougher third-down assignment. He went 10-for-21 for 91 yards with a pick and took three sacks after coming in against Buffalo. The Bills blitzed on nearly two-thirds of Baltimore’s dropbacks, and the Ravens converted just three of 13 third downs. Jacksonville can take a page from that. Show a linebacker coming, make the rookie account for him, then drop him into the window where the quick throw is supposed to go. Make Fagnano solve the problem twice: once before the snap and again with the ball in his hands.

The Jaguars have nine interceptions and a plus-seven turnover margin, and you saw exactly what that can do right before halftime Sunday. A Daniel Jones pass went through Tyler Warren’s hands, Rayuan Lane III took it 92 yards the other way, and an Indianapolis trip to the red zone turned into a 28–0 Jacksonville lead. Lane was already in for Eric Murray, who’s now out for the season. Baltimore may try to test that reshuffled secondary with play-action if Henry gets the safeties stepping forward. Jacksonville can make that a lot tougher by winning on first down.

Baltimore Has to Make Lawrence Hold the Ball

Lawrence has 17 touchdown passes and four interceptions through seven games, and that first drive against Indianapolis was a pretty good example of what Jacksonville wants to do. They went 98 yards, with a 46-yard throw to Brenton Strange helping get things moving. Bhayshul Tuten added a 39-yard touchdown run and then scored on a screen.

Tuten was listed as a nonparticipant on Monday’s walkthrough because of ankle and foot injuries, so his status is worth watching. Those easy yards after the catch can be a quarterback’s best friend when a pass rush is coming, especially on the road.

Baltimore has 17 sacks to Jacksonville’s 15, but the Ravens have played an extra game. The matchup I’ll be watching is Walker Little, filling in for Anton Harrison at left tackle, against Baltimore’s edge rushers. If Mike Green or Trey Hendrickson can win around the corner while Kyle Hamilton takes away the quick throw, Lawrence may have to hold the ball for an extra beat. That’s when the noise and the pass rush can start to matter.

But if Strange is catching the ball on second-and-6 and Parker Washington's finding room downfield, the Ravens could spend a lot of Thursday waiting for Derrick Henry to get back on the field.

Who Wins Thursday Night?

Jaguars 27, Ravens 16. I can see Henry keeping this close into the fourth quarter. What I have a harder time seeing is Baltimore consistently getting off the field against Lawrence while also keeping their own quarterback out of the situations where Jacksonville can take the ball away. If the Ravens need a touchdown late, Henry’s probably not going to be a major factor.

For Baltimore, there’s the more immediate issue of having to make up ground while Jackson’s out. Thursday’s a chance to make that climb a little easier.

All stats courtesy of Fatnasy Points Data.

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