I went 2‑for‑4 on this division last year, which honestly feels about right for the NFC North. Every time you think you’ve got it figured out, this division finds a new way to make you look stupid.

Last season was a perfect example. Chicago jumped from five wins to winning the division. Detroit scored like one of the best offenses in football and still missed the playoffs. Green Bay looked like a contender one week and a young team the next. Minnesota somehow won nine games while barely being able to score.

That’s the NFC North in a nutshell — nobody’s ever completely out of it, and nobody’s ever completely safe either.

Which is why these win totals are always tricky. You’re not just asking whether a team is good. You’re asking how they survive six division games that are usually fistfights, plus whether the coin‑flip moments that decide close games go their way or not.

And last year? A lot of those coin flips decided the division.

Chicago Bears — Under 9.5

This one feels like that meme with the one guy standing up in the courtroom full of people all staring at him. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe I deserve the reaction this one will probably get. But I’m on the Under.

And the funny thing is, I don’t even feel great about fading them.

The Bears were legitimately good last year. They went from five wins to eleven, won the division, and even grabbed a playoff win along the way. That’s real progress.

Their offense wasn’t some gimmicky, perfect‑conditions type of attack either. They could run the ball, they protected the quarterback well, and when they needed explosives, they usually found them.

They scored 25.9 points per game, which is the kind of number you don’t just stumble into by accident.

And Caleb Williams? Year two was when things really started to look like the version people imagined when he came out of college.

He threw for 3,942 yards, a Bears single‑season record, and the biggest difference wasn’t just the production — it was how much calmer and cleaner everything looked. The sacks got cut in half, the offense flowed better, and he found a way to increase his yards per attempt while cutting back on the deep shots; living in that intermediate range that Ben Johnson loved to attack with Jared Goff.

So why am I still under?

Because they lived on the edge.

Not "they won a few close games." Not "they were decently clutch." I mean historically clutch.

The Bears had seven wins when trailing in the final two minutes. That’s an NFL record. That’s the kind of season where every bounce feels like it’s landing your way.

And those seasons are awesome when you’re living through them. But they’re also the hardest ones to repeat.

A big reason those wins kept happening was the defensive formula they rode all year:

• 33 takeaways (most in the league)

• A huge chunk of those coming from a couple key defensive backs

• The best turnover margin in football

Turnovers are real. Creating turnovers is absolutely a skill.

But when your whole defensive identity becomes "we’re going to steal two possessions every week," history usually says some of that swings back the other direction the next year.

And when the ball starts bouncing the other way — even just a little — games that used to end with a dramatic comeback suddenly end with a quiet loss instead.

That’s the difference between eleven wins and nine in the NFL.

The Offseason Problem: They Took A Gut Punch At Center

This is the part that makes me feel more confident about the Under than I want to be.

Chicago just got hit with a major blow up front: Pro Bowl center Drew Dalman retired at 27.

That’s brutal timing for a team that wants to keep building around Caleb. And it comes one year after he signed a 3-year $42 million deal.

Dalman played every snap in the regular season and was a huge part of why Chicago’s offense could be physical (top-3 rushing attack) and protect. Now you’re replacing the quarterback of the offensive line in an offseason where you were already going to have decisions to make.

The Takeaway Engine Is About To Get Raided

If you’re going to bet the Bears to hit 10+ again, you’re probably betting one of two things:

1. The offense takes another leap.

2. The defense keeps stealing possessions at the same rate.

Here’s the issue:

18 of those 33 takeaways are going to hit free agency with Byard, Brisker, Wright, and a few others set to hit the open market. If you lose even one of those high-impact takeaway guys, you can’t just shrug and go “eh, next man up.” Takeaways aren’t like rushing yards where you can plug-and-play volume.

And Chicago isn’t exactly swimming in cap space right now — so keeping everyone is a whole lot easier said than done.

The Counterpoint (And Why I Said This One’s Close)

If you’re looking for the case for the over, it’s simple:

• Caleb is going into Year 3.

• Ben Johnson + Caleb already clicked.

• Chicago’s young weapons are a year older.

If one of the young pass-catchers makes a real jump — like a true, consistent WR1 leap — that’s how this flips, and I end up very wrong.

Because if the offense becomes less dependent on short fields and starts consistently driving the field, the turnover regression won't have nearly as big of an impact.

That’s the most realistic way Chicago burns me.

Green Bay Packers — Over 10.5

Green Bay is in that stage where you stop calling them “young and promising” and you start calling them what they are:

a complete roster that’s done building and is ready to go take something.

That's why I'm on the Over.

They were 9–7–1 last season, they played good defense, and their quarterback was extremely efficient. Jordan Love had 23 TD, 6 INT, 66% completion in 15 games, which is exactly the kind of stat line that tells you a quarterback is starting to really understand the offense instead of just surviving it.

And then there’s the obvious piece of this whole equation: Micah Parsons is on the Packers now.

Even coming off a brutal knee injury, he changes how offenses have to approach Green Bay the second he steps on the field. You can’t just block him with one guy and move on. Protection schemes start shifting. Tight ends start chipping. Running backs have to help.

And when that starts happening, it opens things up for everybody else on the front. Rashan Gary, the interior rush, the blitz packages — suddenly the whole thing becomes harder to deal with.

And even if Parsons misses the first few weeks of the season while working his way back, this roster has enough stability across the board to tread water until he’s fully rolling.

The 2025 Season In One Sentence

The Packers were a good team that still had stretches where the offense felt like a committee instead of a fully unleashed attack.

They finished with the 16th scoring offense and the 11th scoring defense, which basically paints the picture of a team that was solid everywhere but not always explosive enough to separate from people.

So you get a team that’s never really out of games — but also one that occasionally let opponents hang around longer than they probably should have.

They Have Very Few Holes To Poke At

Not zero. Few.

• Love is stable.

• The run game has a real foundation.

• The defense has star power.

• The coaching staff clearly knows what this team is.

That last one matters more than people think. There’s no identity crisis here. Matt LaFleur isn’t experimenting every week trying to figure out what works. They know how they want to play.

And here’s the sneaky thing with Green Bay:

They don’t need to be perfect to win 11 games.

They just need to be consistent.

And when you look at the roster, it’s built for exactly that.

The Schedule Angle

I actually have them splitting with Detroit, dropping one to Minnesota in that classic divisional “how did we lose that one?” game, and losing three AFC games — Bills, Patriots, and Texans.

Even with that built into the projection, they still land around 12 wins in my eyes.

Part of that comes down to the way the offense is trending.

Last season they scored 30+ points just three times, which was tied for the lowest among playoff teams. That’s not really what you expect from a team with this level of offensive talent.

But when you look at the schedule, there are some defenses coming up — Cowboys, Dolphins, Jets, and a few others — where there’s a real opportunity for those numbers to spike.

And the other piece here is the weapons around Love. It feels like every year one or two of them takes a small step forward. Not some huge breakout headline — just steady improvement.

If that trend continues again this offseason, there’s a very real path where this offense starts looking more complete and balanced than it did a year ago.

The One Thing That Could Flip It

If Parsons isn’t fully Parsons — or if the pass rush gets hit with injuries — the defense could slip from “top-third” to just kind of average again.

And if that happens, the math changes a little bit.

Now the offense has to win shootouts instead of playing balanced football.

They can absolutely do that, but it becomes a very different type of bet — and one I wouldn’t feel nearly as comfortable making.

Detroit Lions — Over 10.5

Detroit is the pick I’m most confident in. I love the Over in this spot.

Not because I think they’re flawless. Because they’re not. But I do think last year’s 9–8 season was one of those weird NFL years where the record doesn’t fully reflect what the team actually was.

And through all of that weirdness, the two things that matter most for Detroit never really went away:

1. Their offense is still elite.

2. Their culture is real.

Detroit scored 28.3 points per game last year. That was 4th in the NFL. And they did it while the season kind of felt like it was constantly trying to mess with them.

They missed the playoffs, sure — but the way it happened was very “NFL randomness + a couple disaster games.” The type of season where three or four moments swing differently and suddenly you’re talking about a 12‑win team instead of a 9‑win one.

The Christmas Day game at Minnesota is the perfect example. Detroit turned it over six times.

Six.

That game basically ended their season on the spot. And that’s why I’m treating 2025 more like an outlier than a warning sign.

The Offense Is Still The Engine

Jared Goff threw for:

• 4,564 yards

• 34 TD

• 8 INT

That’s not a quarterback you’re fading in win totals. That’s a quarterback you ride as long as the system around him stays intact.

Amon‑Ra St. Brown had 1,401 yards and 11 TDs, Jahmyr Gibbs added 1,223 rushing yards and 13 TDs of his own.

This is a top‑tier offense, and it hasn’t just been a one‑year thing. They’ve been piling up yards and points for three straight seasons now.

When an offense does that for multiple years in a row, it usually means the structure is real — the line, the quarterback, the weapons. It’s not some one‑season spike.

That’s why I don’t see it suddenly falling off a cliff.

The Montgomery Trade… And Why I’m Not Scared Of It

Let’s talk about the move everybody in Detroit is reacting to emotionally.

Detroit traded David Montgomery to Houston.

That breaks up “Sonic and Knuckles,” which was legitimately one of the most fun backfields in football.

But I actually understand the logic here. And honestly, I think it might end up helping them more than people expect.

Gibbs is a home‑run hitter. Every time he touches the ball, the defense has to account for the possibility that the play is about to turn into 30 yards. The more touches he gets, the more stress you’re putting on the defense every single drive.

If Detroit leans into him as a true feature back — not “run him into the ground,” but make him the centerpiece — you start getting that Christian McCaffrey‑type effect where he feels less like a true running back and more like a weapon.

And Detroit didn’t just dump Montgomery for nothing either.

They got interior offensive line help (Juice Scruggs) and draft picks.

That kind of move tells you what they’re thinking:

“We’re doubling down on the trenches so the identity of this team doesn’t change.”

The Coaching Staff Storyline Matters (But It Doesn’t Scare Me)

Detroit fired offensive coordinator John Morton after one season.

That’s a big deal on paper.

But it’s also not automatically a disaster.

Sometimes moves like that are just a team admitting something didn’t quite feel right and deciding to fix it early instead of letting it linger.

Detroit’s offense under Dan Campbell has had a clear identity for years now. Physical, aggressive, creative when it needs to be. They averaged nearly 30 points per game last season even with an OC they clearly didn’t think was the long‑term answer.

If Drew Petzing can blend his system into that identity instead of trying to reinvent it, this offense could actually feel even smoother.

The Defense: Good Enough Is Enough

Here’s the thing about the Lions, they don’t need a top‑five defense to win 12 games. They just need a defense that can:

• avoid getting shredded every week,

• steal a couple key possessions,

• and not implode in the biggest moments.

Last year they gave up 24.3 points per game, which isn’t where a contender ideally wants to live.

But this isn’t a roster that needs to be rebuilt from the ground up either.

They already have a real centerpiece on the pass rush with Aidan Hutchinson, who had 14.5 sacks last season.

If the defense improves even a little, Detroit becomes a very difficult team to deal with again.

A Schedule That Could Fuel A Big Bounceback

Because they finished last in the division last year, their uncommon opponents ended up being:

• Titans

• Cardinals

• Giants

That’s a pretty friendly draw compared to what some of the other teams in NFC North have to deal with.

And if you already believe Detroit is a legitimate contender, that type of schedule can quietly help push a good team into a really big season. The kind where you look up in December and suddenly realize:

“Oh… this team might actually be fighting for the 1‑seed.”

Minnesota Vikings — Under 8.5

This was a difficult Under for me because I’m someone who actually believed in — and honestly still believes in, to a certain extent — J.J. McCarthy. I just don’t think he’s ready to be what this team needs right now.

Minnesota is the hardest team in this division to talk about because two things can both be true at the same time:

1. They’re not a bad roster.

2. They also feel like a franchise that isn’t totally sure what direction it’s heading.

They went 9–8 last year with the seventh‑best scoring defense, but also the seventh‑worst scoring offense.

So the formula was pretty obvious most weeks. The defense would keep them alive, keep the game close, maybe steal a possession or two.

And then the offense would just kind of grind its way through the rest of the afternoon hoping that was enough.

Some weeks it was.

But it rarely looked easy.

J.J. McCarthy: The Potential Is Real… The Results Weren’t

McCarthy made 10 starts last year.

The stat line wasn’t exactly pretty:

• 11 TD

• 12 INT

• 73 rating

• 58% completions

Now, the one thing worth mentioning is that they still went 6‑4 in those starts, which tells you the team around him was doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

And that’s not me burying him. Young quarterbacks struggle all the time before things eventually click. Sometimes the growth curve isn’t linear.

But the issue for Minnesota isn’t whether McCarthy might become good someday. The issue is whether he’s ready to be good right now, because the roster they’ve built doesn’t really feel like one that’s designed to grow with a young leader.

They need someone who can help them win games this season.

The Front Office Shakeup Is A Loud Signal

The Vikings fired GM Kwesi Adofo‑Mensah.

When you fire the general manager, that’s usually the organization admitting that somewhere along the line, things didn’t go the way they hoped. And whether it’s fair or not, the spotlight tends to swing pretty quickly toward the biggest decisions that were made during that tenure.

Quarterback decisions are always at the top of that list.

Now Rob Brzezinski is running football operations through the draft while the organization figures out who the long‑term GM will be.

That’s not necessarily a disaster.

But it does tell you the franchise is in a bit of a transitional moment. And transitional moments usually aren’t where I love betting Overs.

The Cap Crunch Is Starting To Bite

Minnesota is also dealing with some real cap pressure.

They’ve already been connected to reports about moving on from veterans like Aaron Jones and Javon Hargrave.

And now there’s even chatter that they could be open to moving a big‑name edge like Jonathan Greenard if the right offer comes along.

That doesn’t sound like a team that’s thinking, "We’re one move away from contending."

It sounds more like a team that’s trying to balance the books while they figure out what the next version of the roster is supposed to look like.

The Kyler Murray Wild Card

Now here’s the part that could absolutely make this pick age terribly.

Kyler Murray is going to be released by Arizona at the start of the league year. And Minnesota has already been floated as one of the teams that could make sense.

To make things even more enticing for the Vikings, he’ll still be getting guaranteed money from Arizona, which means he could realistically sign somewhere for the minimum.

And if Minnesota ends up with Kyler — with Kevin O’Connell calling plays, Justin Jefferson getting open when plays break down, and Jordan Addison stretching the field…

Yeah, that suddenly becomes a very uncomfortable offense to defend.

That’s the one scenario where this Under starts to get shaky.

Because Kyler’s talent is rare enough that he can change the ceiling of an offense almost overnight.

Even If They Add A Veteran, The Bar Is Still High

Nine wins isn't some impossible number. But when you look at the path Minnesota has to navigate, it gets tricky pretty quickly:

• Detroit and Green Bay are both expected to win around 10-11 games

• Chicago is coming off an 11-win season and a division title

• And outside the division they still have games against teams like the 49ers, Commanders, Bills, and Patriots

That’s not exactly a soft landing.

If they end up rolling with Malik Willis or one of the other veteran options floating around, I still feel pretty comfortable on the Under.

Kyler is really the only scenario where I’d start seriously reconsidering this pick.

Nothing Ever Goes According To Plan In The NFC North

If you’re looking for the simplest way to summarize my card, it basically comes down to this:

• I’m betting Detroit and Green Bay are the most stable week-to-week teams in the division.

• I’m betting Chicago comes back to earth a little in the areas that swung games for them last year.

• And I’m betting Minnesota’s QB uncertainty keeps them from getting back to that 9-win range.

And yes — I’m fully aware that I’m basically betting against chaos in the most chaotic division in football.

But that’s kind of the whole point of win totals.

You’re not trying to predict every crazy bounce of the ball or every weird Sunday that swings a game. You’re trying to figure out which version of each team feels the most repeatable over 17 games.

Right now, Detroit and Green Bay feel like the repeatable teams in this division.

Chicago’s 2025 magic — especially in the turnover department — doesn’t feel quite as reliable. 

Now we’ll see if the NFC North decides to humble me again.

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro. Win totals from Draftkings Sportsbook.

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