China's Singles' Day Shopping Festival Is Tanking

Alice Zhang spent about half what she did last year during China's Singles' Day shopping festival. Her pay got cut over 20%, so she bought cheaper stuff and skipped new shoes.

"I've made a conscious effort to cut back," said the 29-year-old Guangzhou marketer, who spent around 3,000 yuan ($421) this year.

Singles' Day is China's version of Black Friday—an extended discount campaign that started in 2009. The day originally celebrated being single on November 11 (Double 11). Now it's just retailers desperately trying to move inventory.

This year's festival started October 9, days earlier than 2024. Early start usually means weak sales, not strong demand.

The Numbers Aren't Great

Chinese retail data provider Syntun said combined sales topped 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) as of October 31. Last year sales hit 1.44 trillion yuan total, up 26% year-over-year.

Whether spending is recovering after the pandemic and China's property market crash remains unclear. Economists watching Singles' Day as an economic indicator aren't optimistic.

"Confidence remains quite downbeat among households," said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank.

Boosting consumer spending is supposedly a top priority for China's Communist Party. But, it’s not working based on how people are actually shopping.

Nobody's Buying Big Stuff

Value-conscious shoppers are sticking to necessities and cheap goods. Big purchases aren't happening.

Starting sales early reflects retailers compensating for weak consumer spending, said Shaun Rein, managing director at China Market Research Group. "It's an attempt by players like Alibaba and JD.com to drum up business. But it's not going to be easy."

"A lot of people have been complaining that the discounts this year are not very strong," said independent consumer analyst Yaling Jiang. She's seeing serious "consumer fatigue."

Zhang Shijun, a 45-year-old Beijing staffer, summed it up: "Apart from daily necessities, I don't need to buy any big items. I still need to buy some clothes for my family, because winter is coming."

Fake Discounts Don't Help

Sonia Song, a freelance media worker in Guangzhou, suspects retailers inflate prices before Singles' Day to exaggerate discounts.

She researches deals intensely now, watching livestreaming platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu to compare prices across Taobao and JD.com.

"I'll only buy what's cheapest or most cost-effective now," Song said.

The Chinese government offering trade-in rebates all year for appliances and vehicles didn't help either. Already bought a discounted washing machine in March? November discounts don't matter.

"If you bought a new washing machine earlier in the year at a discount, further discounts, no matter how steep, are not likely to attract new purchases," said ING's Song.

Retailers Look Elsewhere

Chinese e-commerce giants are expanding internationally because domestic sales stink. Alibaba-owned Taobao is running Singles' Day promotions in 20 countries now, according to consultancy Bain & Company.

The U.S. ended its tariff exemption for small shipments, hurting Shein and Temu. So Chinese companies are pivoting to Southeast Asia—Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines.

Jacob Cooke, CEO of consultancy WPIC Marketing + Technologies, said beauty and health products might outperform this year among people who can still afford extras. That's a shrinking demographic.

Incomes Dropped, Spending Followed

Gao Liang works at a Beijing fitness club. Used to spend 3,000 to 5,000 yuan yearly on Singles' Day—food, clothes, whatever. Then his income dropped 20% this year.

"Our business hasn't been doing well these years because we've seen fewer customers, and perhaps they've cut their spending on fitness and swimming," Gao said. Might grab clothes and shoes if he finds deals, but that's it.

"I don't think I will spend that much this year. Given my unstable income, I don't need to hoard things."

That's the reality. Incomes fell. Economic confidence tanked. People buy necessities, and skip everything else.

Stretching Sales Doesn't Work

Singles' Day used to be one day—November 11. Now it's a month-long slog starting early October. Retailers stretched it hoping for more sales. Instead they're spreading reduced spending across more weeks.

Starting earlier doesn't create demand. Just spreads existing demand thinner. Shoppers don't suddenly have extra money because sales started in October instead of November.

Consumer fatigue is real. Fake discounts backfire. Unstable income and low confidence trump any sales event.

Gao Liang said it best: given unstable income, why hoard things? That's not a shopping festival problem. That's an economy problem. And no amount of extended discount periods fixes that.

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