Divorce Isn’t Rising—Here’s What’s Really Happening

The idea that “half of all marriages end in divorce” is a familiar phrase often repeated at weddings or in conversations about family life. But research shows that this statistic is outdated and inaccurate. Divorce rates in the United States have been falling since the 1980s.

The reality is more complex: while fewer marriages are ending in divorce, fewer people are getting married at all. And those who do marry tend to be older, more educated, and more financially secure.

Divorce Trends Over Time

According to sociologist Philip Cohen of the University of Maryland, divorce rates peaked around 1980 and have been on a steady decline since. He compares the public perception of divorce to that of crime statistics: people often assume the rates are always climbing, when in fact they are falling.

At the same time, marriage rates have decreased at an even faster pace. In 1920, the marriage rate was 92.3 per 1,000 unmarried women. By 2022, it had dropped to 31.3—a 66% decline.

Susan Brown, a researcher at Bowling Green State University’s National Center for Family & Marriage Research, explains that one reason marriages last longer today is that people are waiting until they are more financially and emotionally prepared. “As people wait longer to get married, they’re more secure financially and emotionally mature,” she said.

Who Marries—and Who Divorces

Data shows that marriage is more common among individuals who are older, wealthier, and more educated. Those with only a high school diploma or some college education tend to have the highest divorce rates. Meanwhile, those with less than a high school education are the least likely to marry at all.

Brown describes marriage today as “an engine of inequality.” Marriage is increasingly seen as something to pursue after reaching financial stability, rather than a partnership built to create it. This has shifted marriage into a higher standard—something fewer people feel able to achieve.

Economic Factors and Marriage

These trends create a divide. Couples with education and financial security are more likely to marry, pool resources, and build wealth. Others may avoid marriage altogether or face higher divorce rates if financial stress becomes overwhelming.

For working-class Americans, this means marriage is becoming less accessible. Rising housing costs, student loans, and stagnant wages all make it harder for young adults to achieve the stability often seen as a prerequisite for marriage. By the time some reach that point, they may be in their 30s or 40s—or never pursue marriage at all.

On the other hand, couples who marry young without financial security are more vulnerable to divorce. This does not suggest a lack of commitment, but rather the pressures that come with economic stress.

The Exception: Gray Divorce

While overall divorce rates have declined, one group stands out. Baby Boomers over the age of 65 are divorcing at significantly higher rates than previous generations. This “gray divorce” trend means older adults are splitting at about four times the rate they did in 1990.

According to Cohen, the same generation that experienced peak divorce in the 1980s is now divorcing again in retirement years.

Policy and Perception

Despite these trends, debates about marriage and divorce often focus on outdated ideas. Some state lawmakers have proposed limiting no-fault divorce, framing it as a way to preserve “traditional family structures.” But since divorce rates are not rising, experts note that such policies are not addressing the real issue: declining marriage rates among working- and middle-class Americans.

What Strengthens Marriage?

The enduring myth that “50% of marriages fail” persists because it is simpler than the more nuanced truth. In reality, marriage has become concentrated among those who can afford it.

Experts argue that making divorce harder will not increase marriage rates or reduce stress on families. Instead, policies that improve financial stability—such as living wages, affordable housing, and accessible healthcare—could make marriage more attainable and sustainable for a wider group of people.

The Bottom Line

Divorce is less common today than in decades past, but so is marriage. The institution is increasingly shaped by economic inequality: those with the means to build stable lives are more likely to marry and stay married, while others opt out altogether.

The 50% divorce rate statistic may be a myth, but it reflects a deeper truth about inequality in marriage today.

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