If there's anything we've learned from this year's NCAA Tournament, it's that March Madness never disappoints — even without the Cinderella teams. Even with an abundance of dominant performances, the first two rounds gave us plenty of reasons to love this time of year. And now, as we head into the Sweet 16, the excitement is hitting a fever pitch. 

For the first time since expanding in 1985, every team left standing comes from a power conference, with a record-setting seven squads representing the SEC. But this isn't about the teams who have been eliminated, it's about who can win it all from here.

Duke Looks Unstoppable

Let's start by talking about Duke because, frankly, it's impossible not to. The Blue Devils didn't just beat Mount St. Mary's and Baylor — they dismantled them. 

Against Baylor, Duke set a record with the most points per possession in an NCAA game in nearly a decade. Tyrese Proctor is playing like a man possessed, leading Duke with killer shooting and floor leadership. And Cooper Flagg, despite battling back from injury, has looked every bit the superstar he's hyped to be.

Duke's offensive firepower makes them the obvious favorite. But before you start engraving their name on the trophy, remember — they've got Arizona up next, a team that, while flawed, could surprise if Caleb Love gets enough help. Arizona handled Oregon and Akron convincingly, but they'll need more from their supporting cast if they're going to pull off a major upset. 

If Duke clears that hurdle, their path to the Final Four might be the smoothest of any contender.

Who Else Could Steal the Show?

Florida's Quiet Rise

Don't sleep on Florida. The Gators aren't just flying under the radar — they've got the tools to win the whole thing this year. Let's start with Walter Clayton Jr., whose clutch shooting performance against the two-time reigning national champs, UConn, showed everyone that he's made for March. His NBA-level 3s off the dribble under intense pressure proved the Gators can rely on their stars when the lights shine brightest.

But it's not just about Clayton Jr. — Florida is deep, long, and incredibly versatile, making them a matchup nightmare for almost anyone in the tournament.

At 32-4 and fresh off winning the fiercely competitive SEC tournament — a league that, by the way, set a record by sending seven teams into this year's Sweet 16 — Florida isn't just peaking at the right time; they're showing championship-caliber resilience and consistency. 

The statistical backing is clear: this team can flat-out play. Their length and athleticism allow them to dominate defensively while creating mismatches offensively, something that's crucial when games get tight late in March.

Houston's Unfinished Business

Houston isn't just quietly good — they're flat-out dangerous, and they've got everything needed to go all the way this year. Let's start by appreciating their gritty win over Gonzaga, a team that seemed to have a permanent reservation in the Sweet 16 with nine straight appearances before Houston sent them packing.

What's even more impressive is Houston's consistency. Making six consecutive Sweet 16 appearances themselves isn't just impressive — it's currently the longest active streak in men's college basketball. 

This team knows what it takes to compete deep into March, and they've got a massive chip on their shoulder after last year's Sweet 16 loss to Duke, a game they were leading until injuries intervened. For players who experienced that heartbreak, this year's tournament isn't just business as usual; it's unfinished business.

Guard L.J. Cryer stepped up huge against Gonzaga, showcasing the kind of leadership and clutch play every championship team needs. When Purdue awaits in the next round, playing practically in their backyard, Houston’s resilience will be tested yet again. But the Cougars seem built for challenges like these. They can shoot, they can defend, and they can close out games.

The fact that they've navigated a tougher path early on might just be their secret weapon. They've faced quality opponents and come out stronger each time. 

Auburn's Defensive Dominance

Auburn is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019, and they're not here just to enjoy the ride — they genuinely have the pieces to take home the title. Their impressive 32-4 record is no fluke, and after a gritty win over Creighton where they found their defensive swagger again, the Tigers look ready for anything March throws at them. 

Despite All-American Johni Broome having an off night offensively, Auburn showcased exactly what makes them a nightmare: relentless defense and dominant rebounding. This ability to win without their biggest star at his best says a lot about their depth and toughness.

Bruce Pearl has openly expressed confidence in this group, even after a few late-season hiccups, and why shouldn't he? They've proven they're resilient, talented, and deep. 

Michigan is up next, and while the Wolverines have shown plenty of grit themselves — squeaking through tight matchups thanks to Dusty May’s coaching and Roddy Gayle’s hot shooting — Auburn’s defensive intensity and presence on the glass could present Michigan with problems they haven't faced yet.

Kentucky Poised for a Breakthrough

Kentucky might not be everyone's first pick for the title, but overlooking them could be a huge mistake. Entering as a No. 3 seed with a 24-11 record, the Wildcats have found their stride at just the right moment. First-year head coach Mark Pope has masterfully handled a challenging situation — taking over a roster without a single returning scholarship player — and turned it into a cohesive, competitive group that's now eyeing a serious Final Four push.

Their Sweet 16 showdown against Tennessee is a familiar one, and Kentucky has plenty of reasons to be confident. They've already beaten the Volunteers twice this season, including an impressive 11-point victory even without a key rotation player. 

Sure, the old adage says it's tough to beat a team three times in a single season, but Kentucky's prior success offers them a clear psychological edge.

This matchup with Tennessee won't be easy — tournament games against familiar foes rarely are — but the Wildcats' proven ability to handle the Vols this season makes them dangerous. Don't be shocked if Kentucky not only clears this hurdle but continues on to surprise everyone with a deep run all the way to San Antonio.

Alabama's Offense Could Power a Championship Run

Alabama might just be the most underrated team left in this tournament, and their offense could very well carry them to a championship. Entering the Sweet 16 as a No. 2 seed with a solid 26-9 record, the Crimson Tide have quietly built one of the nation's most potent offenses. 

After comfortably dispatching Robert Morris and Saint Mary's, they've showcased their ability to adapt to various styles, even flexing some impressive defensive muscles against a tough Saint Mary's squad.

Coach Nate Oats knows what his team brings to the table: shooters who can stretch the floor, move the ball quickly, and simply overwhelm defenses. They're heading into their third consecutive Sweet 16, bringing valuable tournament experience and confidence.

Their upcoming matchup against BYU is certainly intriguing, pairing two offensive powerhouses in what should be a high-scoring affair. But Alabama seems particularly well-suited to handle BYU’s similarly sharpshooting style, mainly because they excel at the type of up-tempo, high-scoring battles that BYU also favors. 

In fact, Coach Oats has openly declared that his team is among the toughest to guard in college basketball — and looking at how effortlessly they've been scoring, it's hard to argue against him.

Given the dominance of favorites throughout this tournament, Alabama advancing past BYU feels almost expected. But it's not just about surviving this round for these contenders.

Arkansas: A Dark Horse Emerges

Arkansas might be the closest thing we have to a Cinderella story this year —b ut with legendary coach John Calipari at the helm, they hardly feel like underdogs. 

Sure, they're the only double-digit seed left at No. 10, but they've already proven they're not your typical low seed. Stunning victories over Kansas and a massive upset of St. John's have turned plenty of heads. Arkansas is hitting their stride at exactly the right time, going 10-5 since February, with eight of those victories against teams who made the tournament.

This team is built differently. Loaded with former high-level recruits and talented transfers, their athleticism, length, and speed make them a tough matchup for anyone. Yes, the potential absence of leading scorer Adou Thiero due to injury could be a concern, but Arkansas has shown they can adjust and win big games even without him.

Coach Calipari knows something about leading a talented team with a rocky regular season to deep tournament runs — just look at his 2014 Kentucky squad that reached the title game. 

Arkansas has that same feel: dangerous, talented, and peaking at the perfect moment. So while they might be seen as an unlikely contender by the odds-makers, their recent momentum, upset victories, and championship-caliber coaching mean you absolutely can't count them out.

Michigan State Primed for an Elite Eight Run

Michigan State is quietly one of the strongest teams left in this year's tournament, and they're set up perfectly to cruise into the Elite Eight without breaking too much of a sweat. 

With a solid 29-6 record as a No. 2 seed in the South Region, they've already shown they can comfortably handle business, easily dispatching Bryant and New Mexico in the early rounds. This Spartans squad embodies the vintage style of coach Tom Izzo: tough, relentless defense combined with physical dominance on the boards.

The emergence of freshman Jase Richardson has elevated this team from good to potentially elite. Richardson’s improved play gives the Spartans another reliable scoring threat, which complements their gritty defensive identity perfectly. 

Up next is Ole Miss, a team that's played well but may find it difficult to match Michigan State’s toughness and physicality. Ole Miss has had a nice run, knocking off teams like North Carolina and Iowa State, but they haven't yet faced a team as physically imposing and defensively disciplined as Michigan State.

With Izzo guiding them and their defense clicking at just the right time, look for Michigan State to handle Ole Miss decisively and continue their march toward a potential Final Four berth.

What Matters Most: Efficiency, Coaching, Momentum, and Health

When it comes to cutting down the nets, it’s always about balance. Duke, Florida, and Houston each boast the kind of efficiency on both ends that championship teams have. 

Coaching also matters — Duke’s Jon Scheyer, Houston’s Kelvin Sampson, Arkansas' John Calipari, and Michigan State’s Tom Izzo, all have the chops to navigate March’s madness.

Momentum and confidence are huge factors. Kentucky and Arkansas might not be top seeds, but they’re playing fearlessly. On the other side, injuries could quickly derail dreams; teams like Duke and Arkansas need to stay healthy to fulfill their potential.