Gerrit Cole, the Yankees’ towering right-hander and six-time All-Star, is officially on the shelf for 2025.

After his second spring training outing turned sour — where he allowed six runs in just 2⅔ innings — Cole felt something was off. Tests showed a torn ulnar collateral ligament, the dreaded UCL tear that spells out Tommy John surgery. 

Scheduled for Tuesday in Los Angeles, this procedure will keep him off the mound for at least the next 14 to 18 months, wiping out his season and leaving Yankees fans wondering how their rotation will survive.

A Troubling Trend for Cole

What makes this particularly concerning is it’s the second year in a row Cole’s dealt with a major elbow issue. Last season, we saw him sidelined due to inflammation and edema, pushing his regular-season debut to June. 

Now at 34 years old, the concern amps up even more. Tommy John surgery for a pitcher already in his mid-30s isn’t exactly a small bump in the road. It’s a detour — one that could reshape the latter part of Cole’s career.

The Yankees Are in Trouble

For the Yankees, it’s a brutal reminder that injuries can derail the best-laid plans. They came up just short in the 2024 World Series, and now they’ll have to navigate 2025 without their ace. 

The rotation was already facing headwinds: Luis Gil, last year’s American League Rookie of the Year, is out three months with a lat strain. Giancarlo Stanton’s tendon pain in both elbows has him on ice indefinitely. DJ LeMahieu’s calf strain will cost him a chunk of the early season. If it feels like the team’s trying to tread water while wearing cement shoes, that’s because they kind of are.

With Cole and Gil both missing, the Yankees could easily be down 275-300 innings of prime pitching. That kind of gap puts a ton of pressure on the rest of the rotation, specifically Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, who now need to deliver top-tier performances consistently. 

The offense isn’t off the hook either. Stanton’s absence means there’s an immediate need for power in the lineup — someone has to pick up those lost homers and RBIs, or the team risks slipping behind in a ridiculously competitive American League.

How Do the Yankees Replace Cole?

Naturally, the Yankees’ front office might start sniffing around the free agent and trade markets. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn are familiar names out there. If the front office decides to swing big, trade targets like Sandy Alcantara or Dylan Cease could surface, although prying them away from their teams won’t be cheap. 

Then there’s the in-house gamble: prospects like Will Warren have turned heads this spring with a nasty changeup and renewed curveball, and Carlos Carrasco or Allan Winans might be asked to do more than just spot start.

A Blow to the AL East Race

Cole being out for the year doesn't just affect the Yankees — it changes the whole AL East picture. The Orioles and Red Sox suddenly have a much clearer path to making noise in the division. Any games the Yankees were supposed to dominate with Cole on the mound now feel a lot more up for grabs, and in a tight race, that kind of swing matters. 

Losing an ace of Cole’s caliber can be a five-to-ten-win difference on paper, and that kind of swing can separate first place from fighting for a postseason spot come September.

What This Means for Cole’s Legacy

On a personal level, this setback could dent Cole’s Hall of Fame track. He’s 47 wins shy of that 200 mark and still needs 749 strikeouts to reach 3,000. Those are the kinds of milestones that often help secure a plaque in Cooperstown.

Missing a full year doesn’t guarantee he won’t reach them, but it certainly makes the climb steeper. It also puts more pressure on the seasons he has left when he returns — assuming, of course, that recovery goes smoothly.

What Comes Next?

For now, though, we can only wait and see how the recovery unfolds. Tommy John surgery has given plenty of pitchers a second (and sometimes third) act, but it’s never guaranteed.

Until then, the 2025 season marches on without Gerrit Cole, and the Yankees will have to piece together a rotation that can survive in the cutthroat AL East.