Hunter Tierney Mar 21, 2025 13 min read

From Play-In to Parade: Predicting the 2025 NBA Playoffs

Jun 17, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) holds up the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy after the Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks in game five of the 2024 NBA Finals at the TD Garden.
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March Madness will be over in a flash, but the real madness is just getting started in the NBA. With the playoff picture taking shape and teams gearing up for a final push, fans are bracing for what promises to be a wild postseason. It’s time to look ahead and map out how the 2025 NBA Playoffs might unfold.

This season has been a thrilling blend of blockbuster trades, high-profile debuts, and under-the-radar success stories that only true hoop junkies saw coming. Yet, as every fan knows, the postseason is a different beast. Reputations are made (and unmade) in these pressurized series, and teams that spark in the regular season can either go supernova or burn out quickly when the margin for error shrinks.

We’ve got potential juggernauts in both conferences, hungry challengers looking to stake their claim, and just enough unknowns to keep us guessing.

Play-In Tournament Predictions

Mar 14, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) reacts alongside Bradley Beal (3) against the Sacramento Kings at Footprint Center.
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The Play-In has been a breath of fresh air, injecting extra urgency into teams fighting to get into the final playoff spots. This year, the East will likely see the Hawks facing the Magic, and the Bulls squaring off against the Heat. In the West, the Kings will probably be hosting the Suns, while the Clippers battle the Timberwolves. It’s a quick, intense format where one mistake can end your season — and that’s exactly why it’s so fun.

Eastern Conference: The Hawks, riding slightly more veteran experience, should outlast a still-developing Magic squad. Atlanta’s backcourt of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray tends to take over in pressure moments, which might be enough to push them past Orlando. 

Meanwhile, the Bulls feel like they have just enough defensive spark and late-game shot creation to handle the Heat, especially if Chicago’s knack for dramatic comebacks reappears.

Western Conference: Sacramento can get streaky on offense, and playing at home should give them the energy needed to topple the disappointing Suns. The Kings may not have the star power Phoenix does, but the Suns just can’t seem to find consistent form. 

As for the Clippers-Timberwolves matchup, I see the Timberwolves jumping the Clippers for home court. Either way, Minnesota has too much youth for LA to handle. The Clippers have some established playmakers on their team, but they're all closer to the end than the beginning. Anthony Edwards and Co. are a team that relies heavily on pushing the pace. 

Will any of these winners make a deep playoff run? Probably not. But the Play-In often sets the stage for at least one dark horse who finds a hot streak at the perfect time.

First Round Matchups

Eastern Conference

Mar 4, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Talen Horton-Tucker (22) fouls Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) during the second half at United Center.
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Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Chicago Bulls (8)

The Cavaliers enter the playoffs having looked like a complete juggernaut throughout the regular season. Their offense, which leads the league at an impressive 122.4 points per game, is powered by a deep roster that doesn’t rely on just one superstar. 

That being said, Donovan Mitchell has been electric, not only scoring but also orchestrating the offense in crunch time. The question is whether Cleveland’s regular-season dominance translates to postseason success — they're not a very battle-tested team.

Chicago, on the other hand, stumbled into this spot and that will take shape in the way the play as well. Their shaky defense concedes around 119.9 points per game, which ranks among the worst in the league, and going up against Cleveland’s prolific offense is a rough draw. 

Barring a miraculous defensive turnaround, this could be a quick series. If the Bulls can’t slow the pace or force the Cavs into bad shots, we might be talking a five-game series at most.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)

Boston fields one of the most balanced lineups in recent memory. They can score in spurts — their entire starting five have proven they each have 40-point potential on any given night — and they clamp down defensively, allowing just 108.0 points per game. That’s among the top defensive marks in the league, making them a nightmare for a Hawks team that struggles to get consistent stops of its own.

Atlanta can put up points, but allowing 119.4 points per game is a glaring weakness. The Celtics’ deep rotation exploits any defensive lapses, and with Boston’s wings pushing the tempo, this feels like a mismatch. Unless Trae Young catches absolute fire and orchestrates some improbable late-game heroics, this series has “sweep” written all over it. 

The Hawks simply don’t have the length or interior presence to disrupt what the Celtics do best.

New York Knicks (3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6)

(Given the remaining schedule, I think it’s most likely that the Bucks fall behind the Pistons in seeding and wind up in this matchup, rather than the 4-5.)

It’s rare to see a six-seed that the public believes in, but that’s exactly what can happen when you’ve got Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard on the same roster. The Knicks boast a solid record and plenty of talent on paper, but they’ve struggled against the league’s elite. 

Their ball-dominant offense often comes up flat in crunch time, leaving fans frustrated. Meanwhile, the Bucks are as playoff-tested as it gets, with championship DNA.

Giannis is a one-man wrecking crew in the open court, and Dame has made a career out of hitting dagger shots in pressure situations. If the Knicks can’t handle that combination, this series could get out of hand for them. Sure, Karl Anthony-Towns and Jalen Brunson are capable of big nights, but can they do it when the lights are brightest?

I think the Bucks pull off the upset here and earn themselves a second-round date with Cleveland. Giannis tends to reach another gear once the postseason rolls around, and that’s a tough thing to bet against. 

Indiana Pacers (4) vs. Detroit Pistons (5)

On paper, the Pacers look like the clear favorite. Tyrese Haliburton leads a balanced, efficient offense that racks up 116.9 points per game. The team spreads the floor, shares the ball well, and can turn even a modest lead into a sizeable one if their shooters start heating up. But the Pistons bring a level of physicality that can transform a seven-game series into a war of attrition.

Detroit loves to slow the pace, bump you off your spots, and force you to earn every bucket. For a smaller, quicker Pacers lineup, that can be tiring over a long series. If Indiana prevails, they may find themselves drained heading into the next round. 

Even so, the Pacers’ offensive cohesion probably wins out. The Pistons just don't seem to have enough consistent scorers to match points every night.

Western Conference

Feb 1, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) shoots over Sacramento Kings guard Keon Ellis (23) during the second half at Paycom Center.
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Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Sacramento Kings (8)

The Thunder have ascended to top-dog status behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP-caliber season. Averaging 33.0 points per game himself and leading a squad that posts a massive +12.93 average margin of victory (which would be an NBA record if it holds), SGA has proven that OKC is more than just a young, plucky team — they’re a genuine powerhouse.

Sacramento’s run-and-gun style might steal a game if the Thunder come in complacent. But the Kings’ defensive lapses (giving up 115.7 points per game) make it difficult for them to keep up against a team that punishes every mistake. 

Expect the Thunder to move on in dominant fashion, likely in four or five games.

Houston Rockets (2) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (7)

Here we have two defensive-oriented teams, but the Rockets have a much steadier overall presence. After rebuilding for a few seasons, Houston is now near the top in rebounding (48.7 boards per game) and defensive efficiency (109.1 points allowed). Those are numbers that often translate well to playoff basketball.

Minnesota’s defense is even better on paper, anchored by Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, and they might stifle the Rockets for stretches. The problem is whether the Wolves can generate enough offense, especially when the pace slows down. Anthony Edwards can be the difference-maker if he explodes for 30-plus consistently, but in the end, Houston’s discipline should prevail. 

Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

(Given the remaining schedule, I think it’s most likely that the Nuggets jump the Lakers in seeding and wind up in this matchup, rather than the 4-5.)

Even though Steph Curry is always capable of a 50-point outburst, Denver’s all-around game might be too solid to crack over a full seven-game series. Nikola Jokić is averaging a triple-double — 29.1 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.3 assists — and orchestrating one of the league’s most efficient offenses (50.6% from the field, 31.1 assists per game). 

The Warriors rely heavily on Curry’s heroics and Draymond Green’s defense, but if their supporting cast isn’t lighting it up, they’ll struggle to match Denver’s team-wide consistency.

Expect at least one or two vintage Curry explosions, but maintaining that edge across multiple games is tough. With Jokić dissecting defenses and a roster that excels in transition and half-court sets, Denver should advance in about five or six games, reasserting themselves as a legitimate contender.

Los Angeles Lakers (4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5)

The Lakers turned heads by pairing Luka Doncic with LeBron James, forming a duo that could redefine “pick your poison.” Luka handles the lion’s share of the offense, while LeBron serves as the defensive captain, helping to shore up the paint and direct traffic on that end of the floor.

Memphis loves to push the pace — they average 122.7 points — but can they slow the game down when it matters? The playoffs often require half-court execution and composure, which might be where the Grizzlies fall short against an older, wiser Lakers squad. If the Grizz rely too much on transition buckets and quick strikes, they could get burned by the methodical play of LeBron and Luka in the clutch.

I see the Lakers moving on, and relatively easily, with both LeBron and Luka in playoff mode. 

Conference Semifinals Predictions

Mar 9, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) runs down the court after making a basket against Cleveland Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen (31) in the first half at Fiserv Forum.
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Eastern Conference

After the dust settles, we’re likely looking at two matchups: Cleveland vs. Milwaukee and Boston vs. Indiana. 

The Cavs’ depth faces the playoff-tested Bucks, who rely on Giannis’s unstoppable drives and Dame Lillard’s never-ending supply of clutch shots. Cleveland’s second unit could be the difference, especially if Milwaukee leans too hard on its stars.

Boston squares off against Indiana in a classic “heavy favorite vs. scrappy underdog” scenario — also a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Final. 

The truth is, the Pacers can’t match the Celtics’ talent at most positions, and Boston’s defensive versatility might stifle Tyrese Haliburton’s clever playmaking. 

Expect Boston to move on and Cleveland to outlast the Bucks in a potential grind-it-out series.

Western Conference

In the West, the Thunder would host the Rockets in a showdown of contrasting styles — OKC’s wide-open, high-octane system against Houston’s slower, more defensive approach. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s isolation scoring might break the Rockets’ scheme if he keeps finding seams in the half-court. Expect the Thunder to squeeze by in a tight series that could go the distance.

Meanwhile, Denver clashes with the star-laden Lakers. Nikola Jokić’s methodical dominance meets the pick-and-roll brilliance of Luka Doncic and the all-around veteran savvy of LeBron James. 

If the Nuggets can’t contain that duo, it becomes a shootout. Then again, stopping Jokić — who can pass out of any double team — poses its own puzzle. 

Denver’s continuity and championship pedigree should help them to survive, especially if they limit turnovers and force the Lakers to defend multiple actions every possession.

Conference Finals Predictions

Nov 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) drives past Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) in the second half at Ball Arena.
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Eastern Conference: Boston Celtics (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)

Cleveland has been the story of the year, but Boston has more high-level playoff reps, particularly with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown leading the charge. If the Cavs can’t keep the pace high, Boston’s defensive discipline could choke off their usual scoring flurries. 

The Celtics also have multiple ways to attack — if Tatum struggles, Brown or quite literally any other starter can step up.

It could still be a slugfest, because Cleveland’s offense is like a well-oiled machine when things are clicking. But in the end, the Celtics just find a way to close out games, winning in six or maybe seven if the Cavs refuse to quit.

Western Conference: Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (1)

Here, we get the unstoppable youth of OKC versus the seasoned excellence of Denver. Jokić’s numbers speak for themselves, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has put the Thunder on the map. 

The deciding factor might be the supporting cast — Denver’s group has proven chemistry, while the Thunder, as phenomenal as they are, still have some raw edges.

If Oklahoma City’s role players can match Denver’s consistency, especially when Jokić is orchestrating, this might go seven. Still, I see the Nuggets edging them out by leveraging their experience in critical moments. A few timely three-pointers or an unstoppable Jokić pick-and-roll could tip the series Denver’s way.

NBA Finals Prediction: Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets

Jan 1, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) and Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) during the second half at Ball Arena.
Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The grand finale pits Boston’s star-studded, defensive-minded squad against the free-flowing, Jokić-led Nuggets offense. 

On any given night, Jokić can be the best player on the floor, creating havoc with his passing and scoring. Boston, though, has a deeper rotation, able to absorb an off game from Tatum or Brown thanks to complementary pieces like Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, or Kristaps Porzingis.

In a long series, depth and defense often prevail. While Denver’s offense is capable of producing highlight-reel plays, the Celtics can switch matchups, close out on shooters, and force the Nuggets into Plan B. If Jokić faces relentless double teams, will the rest of Denver’s cast consistently hit open shots? Possibly — but Boston’s ability to adapt is top-tier.

Expect a showdown that could produce multiple classics. But in the end, I see Boston hoisting banner #19. The Celtics’ combination of playoff experience, defensive versatility, and multiple shot creators can be devastating once they smell a title. 

But of course, this is the NBA Playoffs — we know better than to assume anything. All it takes is one injury, one hot streak, or one unexpected hero to shift the entire narrative. That’s what makes this time of year so addictive. When the games tip off, it’s all up for grabs — and that, my friends, is precisely why we love it.

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