All eyes will be on JerryWorld as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. These two teams are recognizable enough to carry a standalone national window, even if their combined 2-6 record isn’t exactly what Amazon imagined when the schedule came out.

The short week makes the game more interesting anyway.

Tampa Bay's 0-4 and will be playing this one without Baker Mayfield. Undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels will be stepping in for his second NFL start. Dallas is 2-2 after an emotional comeback win in Houston, but they were just getting their hearts broke in Brazil the week before.

Neither team has time to make any drastic changes. The winner will be the one who already has the answers that work when everybody's sore and one missed protection call can wreck an entire possession.

The Short Week Changes Everything

Coaches aren’t spending the week cooking up something clever from scratch. They’re figuring out which parts of the offense and defense their players can run cleanly without needing a bunch of full-speed reps.

Eagles coach Nick Sirianni once summed up the short-week formula pretty well:

Keep things simple, keep things that guys can learn and execute, that you've been executing all year.

Simple doesn’t have to mean predictable. It just means communication becomes even more important. If one offensive lineman slides the wrong way, a free rusher is coming. If one defensive back misses a motion adjustment, CeeDee Lamb could be running through a whole lot of empty grass.

Dallas’ home-field advantage matters because the crowd noise makes all of those conversations tougher for Tampa Bay. The Cowboys also get to sleep in their own beds after two straight road games, including that grueling 10-hour flight back to Texas.

That’s not a small thing during a week when every hour of recovery matters.

Tampa Bay’s Key: Make Jalon Daniels’ Job Easier

Jalon Daniels showed enough in his first start to make it pretty clear why Todd Bowles immediately said he’d stay the quarterback.

Daniels completed 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards and threw a touchdown. Yes he has two interceptions, but he also added 55 rushing yards in Tampa Bay’s 17-14 loss to Green Bay. He didn’t look rattled. He extended plays, made things happen with his legs, and led an 84-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.

That’s something the Bucs can work with.

What they can’t do is ask Daniels to clean up busted protections all night. Tampa Bay has given up an NFL-high 16 sacks through four games. Their last chance against Green Bay ended when safety Evan Williams came untouched off the edge on fourth-and-11.

Dallas’ pass defense has been awful. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 71.3% of their throws for 970 yards, nine touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 122.7 passer rating.

That sounds like an invitation to throw all over the Cowboys, until you remember Tampa Bay is putting a rookie quarterback on the road with only three days to prepare.

The Bucs should build this game around Bucky Irving and Daniels’ legs. Irving has 241 rushing yards at 4.3 yards per carry. Daniels gives Tampa Bay another number in the running game, and he can make Dallas pay if their edge rushers get too aggressive upfield.

The goal isn’t to hide Daniels. It’s to keep him out of third-and-9.

Screens, movement throws, quick completions to Chris Godwin and Cade Otton, those things can really help Daniels stay in rhythm. Emeka Egbuka also needs to become more than a decorative piece after catching two passes for 13 yards Sunday.

Most of all, Tampa Bay has to protect the football. The Bucs handed Cincinnati 21 points with three straight first-half fumbles in Week 1. Daniels’ two interceptions helped Green Bay build the lead Tampa Bay spent the rest of the game chasing.

An 0-4 team with a backup quarterback doesn’t get to give away possessions.

Dallas’ Key: Let The Veteran Quarterback Control The Game

Dak Prescott is playing too well for Dallas to make this harder than it needs to be.

Through four games, he’s completed 70% of his passes for 1,065 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception. He just went 32-of-45 for 335 yards against Houston, then capped the comeback with a 12-yard touchdown pass to CeeDee Lamb.

Lamb, meanwhile, has 37 catches for 498 yards and four touchdowns. He caught 17 passes for 189 yards Sunday, which is the kind of workload that makes a defense lose sleep. George Pickens’ presence keeps defenses from sending the entire secondary Lamb’s way, even though Pickens still hasn’t found the end zone this year.

Tampa Bay’s defense deserves more credit than you'd expect for a winless team. The Bucs have held three straight opponents under 300 yards and rank fourth in total defense, third against the run.

They’ll also be without Antoine Winfield Jr., who’s expected to miss two to four weeks with a rib fracture.

Dallas should spend the opening quarter making Tampa Bay communicate without him. Move Lamb into the slot. Stack him behind Pickens. Use motion to force the Bucs to show whether they’re playing man coverage or passing routes through zones. Then let Prescott get the ball out before Todd Bowles’ pressure packages have a chance to turn the game into chaos.

Javonte Williams still has to matter, too. His three touchdowns in Houston gave Dallas some balance near the goal line, even if his 3.7 yards per carry this season haven’t exactly been overwhelming. Tampa Bay can’t be allowed to ignore the run and spend every snap hunting Prescott.

The Early Sign To Watch

Watch the free rushers.

Not the sacks. The free rushers.

If Tampa Bay's burning timeouts and changing protections with five seconds left on the play clock, then the short week has already done its job. Dallas can play from ahead and make the rookie carry the entire offense.

But if the Bucs are getting clean exchanges, running the ball efficiently, and giving Daniels some defined throws, they can put the pressure on Dallas quick. And that's not where the Cowboys are at their best

The same goes for Dallas when they have the ball. Tampa Bay’s best chance is to create confusion before Prescott can start feeding Lamb. If Dallas recognizes the pressure and avoids negative plays on early downs, the Cowboys should be in control of the night.

The Pick

Dallas is the better team, has the better quarterback and gets the game at home. Tampa Bay’s defense will keep this from becoming embarrassing, but asking Daniels to outscore Prescott while playing behind a line that's already allowed 16 sacks is too much.

The Bucs will hang around because Dallas’ defense still can’t be trusted. Joey Porter Jr. might be able to help if he goes, but one corner doesn’t erase a unit that's allowed nine passing touchdowns without an interception.

Eventually, though, Prescott and Lamb will find the matchup Tampa Bay can’t cover without Winfield out there. Daniels will end up getting forced into a long-yardage situation, and Dallas will finally create the turnover their defense has been missing.

Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 17.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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