The Rockets Have a Way to Make Wemby’s Night Longer
You could sell Rockets–Spurs on the old clips alone. Hakeem Olajuwon taking league MVP David Robinson apart in the 1995 Western Conference Finals. Manu Ginóbili sneaking up on James Harden to block the shot that saved a playoff game in 2017. There's enough Texas basketball history for more than one rivalry.
But Friday’s game isn’t a museum tour. Houston's trying to become more than a 52-win team that gets bounced in the first round. San Antonio's trying to prove last season’s trip to the NBA Finals wasn’t the ceiling.
The recent history is probably more useful than the ancient stuff anyway. San Antonio took three of four from Houston last season. The Spurs won the first meeting, 121-110, on a Prime Video NBA Cup night, then finished the series with a 145-120 demolition in March. Houston’s one win was the interesting one: Down 16 in January, the Rockets held San Antonio to 14 fourth-quarter points and won 111-106. Alperen Sengün had 20 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists. Reed Sheppard scored 12 of his 21 in the fourth.
That game’s a pretty good reminder that this matchup can flip in a hurry. But what's Sengün going to do with Victor Wembanyama in front of him?
He can slow a possession down and find a cutter before the help gets there. Wembanyama can take those lanes away with his length. He led the league with 3.08 blocks per game last season, but the scarier part is the layups players decide not to take. Houston needs Sengün to keep creating through that.
Wembanyama really needs to bounce back after that opener too. He scored 12 points on 1-for-13 shooting in San Antonio’s 116-104 opening loss to Oklahoma City, then called himself “indecisive” afterward. It was only one game, and he still blocked six shots, but Houston probably isn’t going to give him much room to reset. Amen Thompson and the Rockets’ other long defenders can crowd his catches, and Sengün can really make him work on the other end. Then there’s Durant, who opened with 30 points against Dallas and can rise up for a clean jumper over just about anybody when the offense bogs down.
The biggest style clash could come on the glass. Houston was the NBA’s best offensive rebounding team last season, and San Antonio was the best defensive rebounding team. If the Spurs finish possessions, De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper can get out and run before Houston sets their defense. If they don’t, the Rockets will keep getting extra chances, and that can make even a great Wembanyama defensive stand feel like it didn’t matter.
That’s the battle I’d keep an eye on late, when the easy transition chances disappear and every missed shot starts to feel expensive. Fred VanVleet is back to run Houston’s offense after missing last season, which will make a huge difference for them down the stretch when they need a calm mind to settle things down.
Wembanyama feels due for a much more decisive night, and San Antonio has plenty of ways to create offense around him. But if Houston controls the offensive glass and keeps giving Durant another look every time a possession should be over, things could get dicey for the reigning West champs.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com.
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