Sunday Night Football gives one game the entire spotlight, and this week, it’s Baltimore at Atlanta. Kickoff is Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, and this matchup has a lot more going on than the records might suggest.

The Ravens are 3-1, with an offense that forces defenses to worry about Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson and the deep ball all at once. The Falcons are 2-2, but they’ve turned things around after an 0-2 start, putting up 80 points over the last two weeks in wins over Green Bay and New Orleans. With Michael Penix Jr. back at quarterback, Atlanta’s run game finally has a passing attack that can make defenses pay for loading up near the line of scrimmage. Now the Falcons get to see how real that progress is at home, in their third straight primetime game.

The biggest question is Jackson’s ankle. He injured it against Tennessee and missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. Whether he plays or not will completely change how Baltimore approaches this one.

The Line of Scrimmage Won’t Be Won by Reputation

Putting Derrick Henry across from Bijan Robinson makes this feel like a contest to see which star running back can break the bigger play. But the more interesting question is which offensive line can actually give their guy somewhere to run.

Baltimore's rushed for 614 yards through four games, with Henry accounting for 374 of them and a league-leading seven rushing touchdowns. Atlanta’s defense, though, has given up just 193 rushing yards on 71 carries. That’s 2.7 yards per carry, and no opponent has broken a run longer than 17 yards.

Baltimore can’t expect to flatten this front just by handing Henry the ball over and over. The Falcons added size inside, and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has been creating pressure without sending many extra rushers. Through four games, Atlanta has a 43.3% pressure rate while blitzing on just 20.9% of defensive snaps.

Their adjustment should be to make that front move before asking Henry to run through it. Motion, misdirection, and throws to the sideline can keep Atlanta from getting comfortable in the middle. That matters even more if Tyler Huntley starts. A backup quarterback going up against a good run defense doesn’t need a game plan that boils down to, “Henry, please fix this.”

Atlanta has their own version of the same problem. Robinson's second in the league with 494 rushing yards, but Baltimore's allowed 3.9 yards per carry. The Ravens know he can turn one missed assignment into a touchdown. Safety Kyle Hamilton put it pretty simply:

Eleven [are] needed, because he can make 10 miss.

The Falcons can’t let “stop Bijan” become Baltimore’s entire defensive plan. Keep the play action convincing by letting Penix hit Drake London behind linebackers who’ve stepped up. That’s the adjustment that keeps Atlanta balanced if their first few runs gain two yards instead of twenty.

Both Quarterbacks Have Real Pressure, But for Very Different Reasons

Jackson was playing great football before his injury, with a 119.6 passer rating and a league-best 10.1 yards per attempt. He threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the first half against Tennessee. After he left, Huntley completed eight of nine passes, but Baltimore didn’t score in the second half.

Huntley can run, and he’s won starts for the Ravens before. He also changes what Atlanta has to worry about downfield. If he plays, offensive coordinator Declan Doyle has to give him manageable throws without letting the Falcons crowd the box and take away Henry.

If Jackson plays, the question is how much his ankle will let him escape pressure and threaten the defense with his legs. The Ravens’ offensive line is already adjusting: three centers are on injured reserve, rookie guard Vega Ioane has moved to center, and newly acquired Cam Jurgens just isn't ready to go yet.

Penix’s test is different. Atlanta went their first two games without taking a snap in the red zone. In his two starts since coming back from a knee injury, the Falcons have gained 918 yards and scored 80 points, with one turnover and no more than one sack allowed. He hasn’t had to make a spectacular play on every drive. He’s just kept the offense moving well enough for Robinson and London to make their own plays.

Baltimore's going to give him a much better idea of how real that progress is. The Ravens can generate pressure, but they haven’t always finished the rush or held up in coverage. Four receivers have already caught at least seven passes for 80 yards against them. Penix should have chances to find London, but he’ll need to take the quick answer when it’s there, too.

If he waits for every play to turn into a highlight, Baltimore’s pressure could turn Atlanta’s balanced offense into the pass-heavy game the Falcons are trying to avoid.

Close to the Goal Line, Every Choice Gets Louder

Both teams have backs who can finish drives. The Falcons scored five rushing touchdowns last week against New Orleans, with Robinson getting two and Brian Robinson Jr. adding three. With Penix back, Atlanta has more options near the goal line instead of letting every defense sit there and guess run.

Baltimore has shown they can hold up in those spots too now. The Ravens stopped Tennessee on fourth-and-goal from the 2 last week, they also forced Dallas to settle for a late field goal after the Cowboys had first-and-goal at the 2. That’s a good reminder that even a long Robinson run won’t mean much if Atlanta gets stuck trying to punch it in.

This is also where Baltimore’s mistakes could get costly. The Ravens have committed 39 penalties for 329 yards, including 11 false starts. A flag that turns second-and-goal into second-and-long can take Henry out of the easiest part of the playbook.

For Atlanta, the concern is the opposite: if the Falcons lean too hard on Robinson, Penix could end up having to save them on an obvious passing down after the defense has already won two snaps.

The pick: Falcons 27, Ravens 23.

Atlanta’s run defense gives the Falcons a chance to make Baltimore work for every Henry carry, and Penix has really seemed to unlock something for this offense. A healthy Jackson could change this pick in a hurry. Until I hear he's playing, though, Atlanta has the better chance to keep their full offense available for all four quarters — and in this matchup, that feels like the difference.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

Want more NFL coverage? Head to Sports Pass for the latest. And for more stories that keep you informed and entertained, YourLifeBuzz has you covered.