Fantasy drafts have a way of making every decision feel bigger than it really is. You’re staring at the clock, watching your favorite players disappear and wondering whether to trust the safest workload, the best offense, or the player with the kind of upside nobody else can match.

Sometimes, the answer is obvious. At a spot like kicker, you know a guy like Brandon Aubrey can turn a stalled drive into a five-point swing.

Other positions are much harder to sort out. Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson both have a legitimate case to be the first player off the board. Ja’Marr Chase is competing with Puka Nacua, who just caught 129 passes, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, who's topped 100 receptions in four straight seasons.

There’s no perfect draft strategy, either. Taking the top quarterback too early can mean passing on an elite running back. Drafting the best defense before the value dries up at other positions can leave your roster thin. The names matter, but so does the price.

Josh Allen Still Owns Quarterback

The Pick: Josh Allen

Quarterback rankings get messy pretty quickly after Allen.

He’s finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in six straight seasons and has been the QB1 four times during that stretch. Even last season, when Buffalo leaned more heavily on the running game and Allen posted his lowest passing-yard total since 2019, nobody else gave us the same weekly mix of floor and upside.

Allen threw for 3,668 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2025. Those numbers are solid, but they aren’t why he’s sitting at the top of this list. The rushing production is what separates him. He ran for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns, giving him nearly 142 fantasy points with his legs alone. No other quarterback came within 40 points of that total.

That’s the part of Allen’s game nobody else can really copy. Lamar Jackson might run for more yards. Joe Burrow might throw for more. Jalen Hurts gets plenty of chances near the goal line. Allen can do all of it, and he plays in an offense that’s perfectly happy to turn him into a 245-pound running back whenever a play breaks down.

Buffalo also gave him another legitimate weapon by trading a second-round pick for D.J. Moore. Moore's coming off a disappointing 50-catch season in Chicago, but he’s had six career seasons with at least 1,100 receiving yards. He also gets to reunite with Joe Brady, who was his offensive coordinator for two seasons in Carolina. Add Moore to Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Keon Coleman, and Allen has plenty of options to work with.

The only reason this is even a discussion is Allen’s price. Aggregated ADP has him going around the beginning of the third round — some platforms have him creeping into the middle of the second. That’s a lot to pay for a quarterback in a one-quarterback league, especially when useful starters will still be available a few rounds later.

Once the elite running backs and first-round receivers are gone, his weekly advantage starts to feel more valuable than hoping one of the backs left breaks away from a crowded committee. I’m just not forcing him into the middle of Round 2.

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow

Burrow's the guy for managers who want elite passing production without having to pay the Josh Allen tax.

The injury concerns are real, though. Burrow missed nine games last season after surgery for a severe turf toe injury, and he’s now missed at least six games in three of his six NFL seasons. He also doesn’t give us much as a runner, so he needs Cincinnati’s passing game to stay aggressive if he’s going to challenge Allen.

The upside is still pretty obvious. Burrow led the NFL with 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdowns in 2024. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are still arguably the best receiver duo in football, and Cincinnati's still one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses.

Burrow’s ADP is sitting around the end of the fifth round or the beginning of the sixth in 12-team leagues. That’s a much easier price to build around. Allen is still the quarterback I’d most like to have, but Burrow might be the better pick if the first five rounds fall the right way.

Gibbs Wins The Hardest Debate

The Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs

There’s really no wrong answer between Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. Which, honestly, makes this decision even more annoying.

Robinson led the NFL in yards from scrimmage. Gibbs scored more touchdowns, played in the better offense, and now has a clearer path to an even bigger role. They both catch passes. They both make explosive plays without needing perfect blocking. And they’re both 24 years old, right in the middle of their primes.

Gibbs gets the tiniest of edges.

He finished 2025 with 1,223 rushing yards, 616 receiving yards, and 18 total touchdowns. He also caught 77 passes and averaged 5.0 yards per carry while sharing the backfield with David Montgomery. That gave Gibbs 1,839 yards from scrimmage on 320 touches, which was 46 fewer touches than Robinson had in Atlanta.

Detroit traded Montgomery to Houston and replaced him with Isiah Pacheco, who averaged just 6.7 PPR points per game in Kansas City last season. Pacheco was already expected to have a smaller role than Montgomery, and now an MCL sprain has his availability for the start of the season up in the air. The Lions even brought Kareem Hunt in for a visit, which tells us they’re not exactly thrilled with the depth behind Gibbs right now.

The Lions shouldn’t give Gibbs 400 touches, and fantasy managers shouldn’t want that either. The appeal is that they won’t have to take him off the field as often as they did when Montgomery was one of the league’s best complementary backs. Even 30 extra touches compared to last season could push Gibbs past 2,000 yards from scrimmage.

Detroit will have a new play-caller in Drew Petzing, but Gibbs fits the kind of running game Petzing has stuck with in the past. He can line up in the backfield, motion out wide, and turn a simple checkdown into a touchdown. He’s basically a matchup problem wherever the Lions put him.

And he’s still surrounded by Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and one of the league’s better offensive lines. That’s about as good of an environment as a running back can ask for.

Second Choice: Bijan Robinson

Robinson’s case starts with the workload, but it doesn’t end there. He might just be the best running back in football.

He handled 366 touches last season and turned them into a league-high 2,298 yards from scrimmage. He ran for 1,478 yards at 5.1 yards per carry, then added 820 yards on 79 catches. He’s also played every game through his first three NFL seasons, which is a pretty important detail when we’re talking about a player going this early.

Atlanta lost Tyler Allgeier in free agency after he scored eight rushing touchdowns in 2025. That should open up more goal-line work for Robinson, which is an area where his fantasy numbers haven’t always matched the amount of offense he creates. He scored 11 touchdowns last season, which is good, but it still feels like a light total for a player who did this much with the ball.

The bigger question is everything around him. Michael Penix Jr. is coming back from a torn ACL, Tua Tagovailoa's struggled throughout the summer, and Kevin Stefanski still hasn’t named a Week 1 starter. Robinson’s receiving role gives him some protection when Atlanta falls behind, but the Falcons may not create as many scoring chances as Detroit does for Gibbs.

Honorable Mentions: Christian McCaffrey And Derrick Henry

Christian McCaffrey reminded us what he can do when his body cooperates. He led all running backs in snaps, routes, touches, targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points last season. He finished with more than 2,100 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns, which is exactly why he can still go nuclear when everything lines up.

The problem is that everything doesn’t always line up anymore. McCaffrey handled 450 touches between the regular season and playoffs and just turned 30 in June. San Francisco felt comfortable enough to trade Zamir White, so there’s no reason to panic. But still, there’s more risk here than with Gibbs or Robinson.

Derrick Henry comes with a different kind of concern. He’s been healthy enough to play all 17 games in three straight seasons, but he’s also 32 years old and has more than 2,800 regular-season touches on his body. At some point, that kind of mileage has to matter. Right?

Maybe not yet. Henry still ran for 1,595 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2025. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry and finished seventh among running backs in PPR points per game despite catching just 15 passes. Baltimore’s offense is going to keep giving him chances to score, and Henry's spent most of his career making normal aging curves look pretty foolish.

Chase Has The Best Path Back To WR1

The Pick: Ja’Marr Chase

Ja’Marr Chase led the NFL in targets last season, and somehow it still felt like he left a little on the table.

He caught 125 passes for 1,412 yards and eight touchdowns in 16 games. That was enough for another first-team All-Pro selection and a top-five fantasy finish, even with Joe Burrow missing more than half the season. Chase has now topped 1,000 yards in every season of his career, and he's also finished as the WR5 or better three times in five years.

The biggest reason I’m comfortable putting him first is what happened the last time Burrow played a full season. Chase caught 127 passes for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2024, won the receiving triple crown, and finished as fantasy’s clear WR1.

Cincinnati isn’t going to stop feeding him. Chase saw 185 targets last season, and the Bengals don’t have a running quarterback who’s going to steal a bunch of touchdowns near the goal line. When they need an explosive play, Chase gets the ball. When they need a third-down conversion, Chase gets the ball. When they get into the red zone, Burrow's looking for Chase or Tee Higgins.

Chase did hyperextend his left knee during practice this week, so it’s something to keep an eye on this close to the start of the season. He called it a minor tweak and said he could’ve played if Cincinnati had a game the next day. The Bengals held him out of the following practice and plan to keep their starters out of the preseason finale, which gives him nearly three weeks before the opener.

Unless that diagnosis changes, Chase is still my WR1. The volume held up even without Burrow last season. With Burrow back, the touchdowns and big plays should follow.

Second Choice: Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua has the strongest argument to go ahead of Chase because, well, he already did it last season.

Nacua led the NFL with 129 receptions and finished second with 1,715 yards and 10 touchdowns. He also added 105 yards and another score on the ground. In PPR leagues, he finished inside the weekly top six 10 times and had only one game outside the top 22.

The usage was just as impressive. Nacua saw nearly 29% of the Rams’ targets and was Matthew Stafford’s first read on more than a third of his routes. Sean McVay did a great job using motion to get Nacua clean releases and easy touches, but this wasn’t just a scheme thing. Nacua was still one of the best receivers in the league after the catch and with contested catches.

At this point, there’s no fluke left to explain away. Nacua's finished sixth or better in fantasy points per game in all three of his NFL seasons. That’s a pretty good track record.

Chase still gets the edge for me, mostly because of how much Puka had to deal with throughout the offseason. He's still elite, so I’m not expecting some dramatic collapse. But when a player has an offseason as loud and rough as his was off the field, I do think it’s fair to wonder if that can have some effect.

Nacua feels like the safer bet to catch 120 passes. Chase has the better chance to combine that kind of volume with 15 touchdowns.

Honorable Mentions: Amon-Ra St. Brown And Justin Jefferson

Amon-Ra St. Brown might be the least exciting elite pick in fantasy football, and I mean that as a compliment.

You pretty much know what you’re getting. He caught 117 passes for 1,401 yards and 11 touchdowns on 172 targets last season. It was his fourth straight year with at least 100 receptions, and he’s finished fourth in fantasy points per game among wide receivers in three consecutive seasons. Detroit can change coordinators, add receivers and give Jahmyr Gibbs more work, but St. Brown’s role in the middle of the field isn’t going anywhere.

There’s a little more target competition in Detroit than there is in Cincinnati or Los Angeles, but St. Brown’s role has held up through all of it. He’s Jared Goff’s first look on third down and one of the most heavily targeted receivers in the red zone. His ceiling might be a touch lower than Ja’Marr Chase’s or Puka Nacua’s, but his weekly floor is right there with them.

Justin Jefferson is the bounce-back pick.

Minnesota’s quarterback mess dragged Jefferson down to career lows last season: 84 catches, 1,048 yards, and just two touchdowns. His target share actually climbed above 30%, but too many of those throws were late and way off target.

Kyler Murray changes the whole equation. He doesn’t need to turn back into an MVP candidate. Jefferson just needs competent quarterback play. In the five games Jefferson played with Carson Wentz last season, he averaged 10 targets, 6.8 catches, 95.4 yards, and 16.3 PPR points without catching a single touchdown.

Murray's gotten the ball to an elite fantasy receiver before. DeAndre Hopkins caught 115 passes for 1,407 yards in 2020 when he was with the Cardinals. Kevin O’Connell will move Jefferson all over the formation and should give Murray easy ways to get him the ball.

The Forgotten Three

Tight End Pick: Trey McBride

Brock Bowers is going first at tight end in a lot of places, but I’d still take Trey McBride.

McBride just put together one of the best tight end seasons we’ve ever seen. He set an NFL record with 126 catches, finished with 1,239 yards, and scored 11 touchdowns on 169 targets. His 18.6 PPR points per game were almost four more than any other tight end and would’ve ranked fifth among wide receivers.

The biggest reason I’m buying back in is Jacoby Brissett. McBride’s season really took off after Brissett came in for Kyler in Week 6, and 10 of his 11 touchdowns came with the veteran quarterback under center.

Brissett's a true veteran backup in every way possible. He's been in the league long enough to know that when all else fails, find the big guy. And he just so happens to have one of the best in the league with McBride. 

There’s going to be some regression. The Cardinals probably don’t want to spend another season throwing 40-plus times every week while playing from behind, and they drafted Jeremiyah Love third overall to help make sure they wouldn't be. But McBride doesn’t need another 126-catch season to be worth the pick. If he catches around 100 passes and scores seven or eight touchdowns, he’ll still have a pretty big edge over most of the position.

Honorable Mention: Brock Bowers

Bowers is really good. Like, “I’m not going to argue with you if you take him first” good.

He caught 112 passes for 1,194 yards as a rookie, then followed that up with 64 catches, 680 yards, and seven touchdowns in just 12 games last season while playing through a PCL injury and bone bruise. Bowers says his knee is now close to 100%, and Las Vegas still doesn’t have a receiver who can take over his role as the center of the passing game.

The quarterback situation and schedule are really what separate him from McBride for me. Kirk Cousins is going to start for a while and should look his way pretty often, but when rookie Fernando Mendoza eventually takes over, I'm not sure that'll be the case. They also face a gauntlet of defenses in the middle of their season that can really key in on him and make things tough for the third-year tight end.

McBride's already shown us exactly what his connection with Brissett can look like.

D/ST Pick: Houston Texans

Houston was the best defense in football last season, and there’s no reason to expect a major drop-off.

The Texans led the NFL by allowing just 277.2 yards per game, finished second at 17.4 points allowed, and forced 29 turnovers. Will Anderson Jr. had 12 sacks, Danielle Hunter added 15, and Derek Stingley Jr. picked off four passes. As a team, Houston’s secondary came away with 19 interceptions and the pass rush averaged 2.8 sacks per game. That's absurd.

That’s pretty much the fantasy formula we’re looking for. The low point totals give Houston a steady floor, and then the sacks and turnovers create the big weeks that can swing a matchup. The Texans also added Jadeveon Clowney to a pass rush that was already making life miserable for opposing offensive lines.

The one problem is the schedule. Houston opens against Buffalo and Cincinnati, which is about as rough as it gets for a defense. That’s why I wouldn’t reach too early just to get them. The Texans are my favorite full-season defense, but I’d still be ready to stream someone else in those first two weeks.

Honorable Mention: New England

The Patriots finished as a top-10 fantasy defense last season, then added Kevin Byard after he led the NFL with seven interceptions. He’ll join a secondary that already includes Christian Gonzalez and promising second-year safety Craig Woodson. Christian Barmore also generated 55 pressures between the regular season and playoffs, even though only three of them ended in sacks. You'd assume that number would take a jump up next season.

New England has some really nice matchups on the schedule, including games against Las Vegas and the Jets in Weeks 5 and 6. The Patriots get the Jets again during the fantasy playoffs, too.

Houston has more talent and is the defense I’d rather sit on all season. New England might be easier to manage week to week, though, especially if you’re willing to play the matchups instead of locking yourself into one defense.

Kicker Pick: Brandon Aubrey

Jason Myers scored more last season. Brandon Aubrey is still the kicker I want first.

Aubrey made 36 of 42 field goals in 2025, including 11 from at least 50 yards and three from beyond 60. He also hit 47 of 48 extra points and finished in the top three fantasy kickers in each of his first three seasons.

The setup in Dallas is pretty much perfect for him. The Cowboys play indoors, move the ball well enough to get into field-goal range regularly, and trust Aubrey to try kicks most teams wouldn’t even consider. He already owns the NFL record with six made field goals from at least 60 yards.

If your league gives bonus points for long kicks, that gives him a real edge instead of making the position feel like a weekly coin flip.

Honorable Mention: Jason Myers

Myers deserves plenty of credit after making a league-high 41 field goals and all 48 of his extra points for Seattle. He finished the regular season as fantasy’s top-scoring kicker, then made a Super Bowl-record five field goals to help the Seahawks win the championship.

Even so, I’m not spending anything more than a final-round pick on either guy. Take Aubrey if he’s still there. Take Myers if someone grabs Aubrey first. The difference between the best kicker and the fifth-best kicker won’t matter nearly as much as finding one more running back who suddenly earns a starting role.

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.

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