Portland’s had a rough couple of nights. First, Luka Dončić dropped 53 points on the Blazers. Then they came home and got run over by San Antonio. Now Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder are coming to town for a nationally televised matchup.

Apparently, the schedule didn’t think Portland had enough on their plate.

The Thunder visit Moda Center on Tuesday at 11 p.m. Eastern on NBC and Peacock. Damian Lillard facing Oklahoma City would usually be enough to draw a crowd, but this game comes with an extra layer: both teams are trying to figure out how much they can handle without some important players.

Oklahoma City's 8-2 and riding a four-game winning streak. Portland is 6-3 after opening the season 6-1. That’s still a strong start, even if the last two games have taken some of the shine off the Blazers’ early-season buzz.

Shai's Still Here

Oklahoma City's missing Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Cason Wallace. That's a massive chunk of their scoring and rim protection sitting in street clothes. This isn't the full-strength group Portland expected when the schedule came out.

Unfortunately for the Blazers, the guy averaging 29.9 points is available. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's also shooting 39.1% from three, so backing off and hoping he'll cool off isn't exactly a great plan.

And the replacements haven't just been filling space. Ajay Mitchell scored 35 in Friday's win at Memphis. Against Washington on Saturday, rookie Aday Mara had 18 and Jared McCain added 19. Shai finished that one with 30 points and nine assists. The Thunder won 114-75.

Portland should make those other guys beat them. They just need to remember that some of them already have.

Dame Gets the Billing. Deni Makes It Work.

For anyone catching up, Damian Lillard's back in Portland and playing again after missing last season while he recovered from his Achilles injury. He's averaging 19.4 points, and that familiar deep pull-up is still a problem for defenses.

But Deni Avdija's the other name you need to know. He's averaging 22.3 points and 6.3 assists, and Portland's best bet Tuesday is getting him downhill before Oklahoma City's defense has time to settle in.

The plan's pretty simple: make somebody help on Deni, then get the ball to whoever that defender leaves open. If that's Dame, great. If it's a big near the basket, take that too. There's no prize for making the possession harder than it needs to be.

Ja Morant's hamstring injury takes away another way to break down a defense, which puts more on Avdija, Lillard, and Jrue Holiday. Morant's still waiting on his four-week reevaluation.

But there's a massive gap between Portland's 119.3 points a game and Oklahoma City giving up 104.2. The Blazers want their creators to keep generating good shots. The Thunder want to make every one of those shots feel like work.

Getting a Shot Would Help

The Lakers loss is the warning sign. Portland turned it over 24 times and gave up 17 offensive rebounds. Los Angeles turned those mistakes into 28 points off turnovers and 21 second-chance points. That’s a whole lot of help for an opponent that already has Luka.

Saturday needs some context, too. Avdija said the Blazers didn’t get home from Los Angeles until 5 a.m. before turning around to play the Spurs. Micah Nori wasn’t treating that loss like proof his team had suddenly gotten too comfortable:

It’s an ass-kicking. But it’s not humble pie.

With a day of rest before Tuesday, Portland needs to clean things up late. Shai won last season’s Clutch Player of the Year award, leading the league with 175 clutch points and 16 go-ahead clutch baskets. Oklahoma City went 20-7 in those close games when he played.

That’s why I’m taking Oklahoma City in this one. Another road win would say a lot about how this reshuffled supporting cast is holding up.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com.

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