If you think you’ve got the AFC North figured out, you’re probably getting ahead of yourself.

The Browns are 5–2 and sitting on top of the division. The Steelers are also 5–2. The Bengals just scored 35 points in a half against Baltimore. And the Ravens — the team I felt best about before the season — are in last place at 4–3.

So, which one do you trust?

Cleveland has needed a late scoring drive to win every game. Pittsburgh has won three straight, including a 16–10 game in Paris that didn’t do much to answer the questions about their offense. Cincinnati looked completely lost for the first half Sunday, then suddenly looked like a team capable of beating anybody. Baltimore's been a mess without their two-time MVP quarterback.

Sunday should tell us a little more. Cleveland goes to Pittsburgh for a rematch, and Baltimore travels to Buffalo. Cincinnati hosts Tennessee, the same 1–6 team that nearly knocked off the Browns last week. All three games kick off at 1 p.m. ET.

The real question isn’t which team has the best record on Monday. It’s which version of these teams will still be around in December.

Cleveland Earned Their Lead. They've Also Earned the Questions.

I’m done calling the Browns’ wins accidents. You don’t lead a game-winning drive in all five of your wins by just tripping into the end zone. Deshaun Watson has done exactly that, becoming just the third quarterback since the 1970 merger to lead one in each of his team’s first five wins.

He did it again in Tennessee. The Titans tied the game with 58 seconds left, and Watson moved Cleveland 55 yards in four plays before Andre Szmyt hit the winner as time expired. Watson finished with 308 passing yards, his first 300-yard game as a Brown. Quinshon Judkins ran for 96 yards and two touchdowns. KC Concepcion caught eight passes for 129 yards and added 23 more on the ground. Those are real contributions. This wasn’t Watson getting lucky on one last heave and calling it a day.

And I owe Concepcion one. I wasn’t sure how much his game would translate. Now I keep watching him get open, make the first guy miss, and give Watson somewhere useful to go with the ball. That’s been huge for an offense that spent too much of the season asking somebody to make one tough play after another. Judkins looking like a real rushing threat matters too.

But you can believe all of that and still wonder how Cleveland keeps putting itself in a position to need a rescue. Tennessee scored touchdowns on its first two possessions, and Tony Pollard finished with 129 rushing yards and three scores. The Browns are 5–2 with 133 points scored and 146 allowed. A negative point differential doesn’t erase the wins. It does tell us the margin has been awfully thin.

The defense has a foundation. Carson Schwesinger’s read and forced fumble against Baltimore helped turn that game around, and Cleveland shut the Ravens out over their last nine possessions. Jared Verse, brought over in the Myles Garrett trade, gives the front a serious edge presence. Mason Graham’s return in Week 7 helps too. But after what Pollard did, Pittsburgh will want to find out whether Cleveland can stop a back who’s been carrying his own offense.

This rematch should also tell us something about Watson. In the Browns’ 27–24 win over Pittsburgh in Week 4, he threw for 268 yards and led another last-minute scoring drive. The young receivers made plays. Cleveland’s defense sacked Aaron Rodgers five times. Pittsburgh only pressured Watson on 21.6 percent of his dropbacks.

If the Steelers get home more often Sunday, can Watson stay on schedule before the last two minutes? Can Judkins keep him in manageable downs? Can Concepcion keep creating easy yards when Pittsburgh knows the ball might be coming his way?

I like what Cleveland’s building more than I did a month ago. I’m just not ready to treat its ability to win close games as a plan for winning the division.

Pittsburgh's Found a Run Game. Now They Need Touchdowns.

If you only saw the score from Paris, you probably filed the Steelers’ win under ugly but counts. Fair enough. They scored 16 points against New Orleans and found the end zone once.

Watch how they got through the game, though. Pittsburgh ran the ball 30 times for 148 yards. Jaylen Warren had 101 rushing yards and 137 from scrimmage. Warren and Rico Dowdle combined for 223 yards from scrimmage, giving Mike McCarthy the pairing he’d wanted to use all along. The Steelers converted 10 of 16 third downs and kept Rodgers from having to throw his way out of trouble on every series. McCarthy said getting to 30 rushing attempts had been a goal. For once, the offense was able to stick with it.

That’s a more promising sign than the score. Warren’s balance and work after contact have shown up a lot this season; in Paris, 71 of his 101 rushing yards came after contact. Rodgers also hit DK Metcalf for 51 yards. This isn’t an offense with no way to hurt you.

It is an offense that took seven possessions to score one touchdown against the Saints. Rodgers said afterward they're “not playing as well as we can.” He’s right. Long drives can keep a defense fresh, but if they keep ending in field goals, Pittsburgh will eventually need more than 16 points.

Sunday's the place to find out whether the run game is real or a one-week aberration. Warren had 93 yards on 17 carries in the first meeting with Cleveland, and Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns. Pittsburgh still lost because Rodgers took five sacks and threw two interceptions. One good week on the ground won’t fix that protection by itself.

The defensive question is just as important. Cleveland’s offense was comfortable enough in the first meeting to score three straight second-quarter touchdowns. The Steelers made plays late, but their pass rush never really got to Watson. They need to make him play through four quarters of pressure, not wait for another opportunity after he’s already moved the ball.

Cincinnati’s Best Case Has Evidence Behind It Now

The Bengals’ first half in Baltimore was brutal: 59 yards, two first downs, and no points. Coming off a bye, too. I don’t want to brush that aside just because the next 30 minutes were spectacular.

But those next 30 minutes happened. Cincinnati scored touchdowns on their first five possessions after halftime and won 35–13. Joe Burrow completed 16 of his last 18 passes for 249 yards and four touchdowns. Tee Higgins caught six passes for 148 yards. Baltimore gave Ja’Marr Chase plenty of attention, and Higgins made them pay for it. The Bengals’ defense adjusted at halftime, too, sacking Tyler Huntley four times and taking away the run.

Afterward, Chase said he’d been getting on everybody in the locker room. You can call that the spark if you want. What I care more about is what happened once the ball was snapped. Burrow started finding Higgins in the spaces Baltimore left open, and Cincinnati’s defense finally started working together.

There’s reason to think the defensive improvement might stick, too. The Bengals have now gotten multiple sacks in all six games and have 20 for the season. Boye Mafe has five. Cincinnati's 4–2 with a plus-41 point differential, best in the division. None of that guarantees anything, but it’s a better reason to trust this team than one wild half of football.

Tennessee is an awkward next opponent. The Titans are 1–6, and the Bengals should beat them at home. They’re also the team that just ran through Cleveland early and tied the game in the final minute. Cincinnati doesn’t need another 35-point second half to prove anything Sunday. They need a first half that doesn’t make one necessary.

If the defense can handle Pollard and Burrow can get the offense moving before they're desperate, that’d be a quieter — and more convincing — step forward.

I had Cincinnati as a playoff team before the season because Burrow, Chase and Higgins gave them a clear offensive answer. My question was whether the rebuilt defense would get them enough stops. Six games in, there’s a real case that they can.

Baltimore Can Still Have the Highest Ceiling. But They Have the Most Urgent Problem.

It’s impossible to talk about Baltimore’s offense without starting with Lamar Jackson. He’s missed three straight games with an ankle injury. Tyler Huntley's kept the Ravens competitive at times, but Jackson changes what a defense has to worry about before the snap. He creates more room for Derrick Henry. He changes what happens when a play breaks down.

As of Tuesday, Jackson’s Week 8 status is still up in the air. Jesse Minter said he expects to know more when practice starts back up on Wednesday and hopes Jackson will be in a “decent spot.” The Ravens haven’t said he’ll play in Buffalo:

I'm not going to speak really on the details of anybody's injury. So, look, if Lamar's able to play, healthy enough to play and play the way that obviously we feel like he needs to play, then he will play.

The whole situation has been strange. Lamar also has a history of keeping the organization in the dark about injuries, especially in contract years — which he’s essentially in now. When Minter was asked about whether a report saying the Ravens were “shocked” by Lamar’s decision not to play last week was a mischaracterization, he said:

I would say a little bit, but he got a little bit of work in on Friday... and then what happened – happened.

Getting Jackson back would help enormously. It wouldn’t explain away everything we’ve watched.

Baltimore led Cleveland 10–0 and lost 13–10. They had a lead on Cincinnati 13–0 at halftime and lost 35–13. The offense went scoreless after halftime in both games. Against the Bengals, Henry had four second-half carries for 13 yards and finished with 45 yards on 17 attempts. Some of that was game flow. Some of it was blocking. Some of it was what happens when opponents don’t have to give Huntley the same attention they’d give Jackson. Either way, the Ravens still need an answer.

And the defense can’t just hand this problem back to Lamar. Cincinnati scored on five straight second-half drives. The Ravens’ scoring differential is plus-65 in first halves this season and minus-70 in second halves. That’s more than one bad afternoon. Minter called the Ravens “too much of a momentum team.”

After watching the last two weeks, it’s hard to argue with him.

I still understand why I liked this team so much coming into the season. Zay Flowers is making plays after the catch and looks more confident every week. Kyle Hamilton can change a possession with one read. Henry and a healthy Jackson are a nightmare to defend together.

Baltimore’s top gear might be higher than anyone else’s in this division.

Buffalo will test whether the Ravens can find that gear for more than a half. The Bills are 5–1 and are coming off their bye. They've scored 197 points in six games. Josh Allen threw for 255 yards and two touchdowns in their Week 6 win over the Raiders, even with Las Vegas doing a decent job of keeping him from running. He can beat a defense from the pocket, which is a tough assignment for a Ravens secondary that just watched Joe Burrow complete 16 of 18 passes after halftime.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

Want more NFL coverage? Head to Sports Pass for the latest. And for more stories that keep you informed and entertained, YourLifeBuzz has you covered.