Daniel Gafford blocked Tarris Reed Jr. at the rim in the fourth quarter of the first Mavericks-Spurs matchup for what looked like the momentum-turning play.

Reed got the ball back anyway.

Seven seconds later, Julian Champagnie hit a three. A Dallas team that had been within a couple of possessions suddenly found themselves down nine. Then Dylan Harper hit another three, and the gap was 12.

Victor Wembanyama watched all of it from the bench.

That’s the stretch I’d make Dallas watch again before Wednesday. The Spurs won 122–106 on October 24, and it’s fair to wonder how different that game would’ve looked with Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving out there. It’s also fair to ask how much that would’ve helped if Dallas still couldn’t get their hands on the ball after a stop.

San Antonio had 15 offensive rebounds and scored 25 second-chance points. That’s not a small detail buried in the box score. That was the game. Dallas got stops and then couldn't finish the possession, which is about as useful as locking the garage and leaving your front door wide open.

The Mavericks can’t give the Spurs extra chances and expect the math to work out. Not with Wembanyama potentially back in the mix. Not with San Antonio’s length flying around the offensive glass. And not against a team that already showed they can turn one broken possession into a nine-point swing before Dallas has time to breathe.

Round two tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

What Happens When Flagg Gets Downhill?

Flagg’s averaging 25.2 points and 6.5 assists, and that second number is the one I’m watching Wednesday. Wembanyama's blocking four shots a game, so if Flagg gets into the lane and sees Wemby step up, the real question is what he does with the ball before Wemby gets a hand on it. Gafford rolling behind him is one option. A pass to the corner is another, as long as somebody makes the Spurs pay for leaving them open.

Irving changes how often Flagg has to make that read from a standstill. Against Houston on Friday, they combined for 68 points and scored 27 of Dallas’s 40 in the fourth. With Irving out Monday, Flagg went 3-for-19 and turned it over six times in a loss to a Sacramento team that hadn’t won yet. As coach Dusty May put it afterward, Irving does a lot for Dallas by "making big shots and calming us down.” If Irving plays Wednesday, Dallas can put the ball in his hands and get Flagg moving before the catch. If he sits, I’ll be watching how much work Flagg has to do just to get to that first good look.

San Antonio can spread that work around. De’Aaron Fox can get downhill, Stephon Castle can run the offense, and Harper can take over stretches himself. Harper had 22 in Dallas and led the Spurs with 17 points and eight assists against Utah on Monday. Wembanyama scored 12 in that one. San Antonio still won by 22.

Who Wins?

I’ve got San Antonio. If it’s a one-possession game late, watch P.J. Washington and Gafford when the shot goes up. Gafford’s blocks and Washington’s rebounds in traffic mattered against Houston even on a night when the two stars had 68. If Dallas can get those same stops all the way to the rebound, Flagg gets another trip down the floor with a chance to decide it. If the Spurs get the ball back, Dallas has to guard Fox and Wembanyama all over again. That sounds exhausting.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com.

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