The expanded World Cup was always going to do one of two things. Either the new teams and new slots would get chewed up and spit out by the traditional powers, confirming every cynical take about FIFA doing it solely as a cash grab. Or the extra room at the table would give a specific tier of teams exactly the amount of breathing room they needed to stop being interesting and start being dangerous.

We're two weeks in, and so far it seems like the second thing.

Not all of it. The giants are still mostly acting like giants. Argentina and France look like Argentina and France. Germany is being Germany. Spain, when healthy, reminds you why Spain is Spain. None of that is a surprise. But underneath that first layer, there's a tier of teams that has spent the last several years building toward exactly this moment — and the expanded format plays right into their hands.

For years, international soccer felt like it had two classes. There were the handful of countries everyone believed could actually win the thing, and then there was everybody else hoping to catch lightning in a bottle for a match or two.

That gap still exists. It just isn't nearly as wide as it used to be.

Morocco: The One You Already Know Can Do It

Morocco isn't a project anymore. That conversation ended somewhere around the quarterfinal against Portugal at the 2022 World Cup — the one that had Cristiano Ronaldo walking off the field in tears and an entire continent celebrating history. They became the first African and first Arab nation to reach a World Cup semifinal, and somewhere along the way, people stopped looking at them like a fun underdog story.

Four years later, they show up in North America as the sixth-ranked team in the world, sitting above Portugal, above Germany — and nobody’s really arguing it.

That number isn't a fluke. It's the resume.

Through two group games, Morocco has done nothing to shake that standing. They opened with a 1-1 draw against Brazil — one of the few teams you can still comfortably put a tier above almost everyone — and it didn’t feel like Morocco was hanging on for dear life. Ismael Saibari’s goal in the 21st minute was more of a reminder than a surprise. Walid Regragui's successor, Mohamed Ouahbi, walked into a real team, with real habits, that knows exactly how they want to play.

Then Saibari scores again two minutes into the Scotland match, and you can almost feel the game tilt. Morocco gets the lead and immediately drops into that mode they’re most comfortable in — not defensive, just controlled. They don’t rush. They don’t force it. They just make you play their game for the next 80 minutes.

The pass-completion number against Scotland caught everyone's attention — 601 passes, the most by any African nation in a World Cup game since 1966. And yeah, it’s a big number, but it’s not just trivia. It’s identity. They want the ball. They want structure. They want to suffocate you without it ever feeling chaotic. Brahim Díaz from Real Madrid running the attack, Achraf Hakimi — fresh off a Champions League title with PSG — owning that right side, and Bilal El Khannous with a teenager in Ayyoub Bouaddi running the midfield that just doesn’t give you anything cheap.

And then there’s 18-year-old Ayyoub Bouaddi looking like he belongs on this stage already. He might be the best example of where this program is headed. He had multiple countries trying to convince him to play for them. He chose Morocco. A few years ago that would've felt like a recruiting win. Now it just feels like the best choice.

The round-of-32 draw lines them up with the Group F runner-up — right now that’s tracking toward Japan, Sweden, or the Netherlands . On paper, those are “good” matchups. Manageable. Winnable.

You know who else looked at matchups like that and felt fine about it? Spain and Portugal in 2022. We all saw how that ended.

Japan: The Team That Already Proved the Template Works

Japan has already lived this story once. At the 2022 World Cup, they finished ahead of both Germany and Spain in one of the toughest groups in the tournament. Those weren't fluky wins built on lucky bounces or one spectacular counterattack. Japan had a plan, trusted it, and executed it against two countries that almost always expect to control games. Then they pushed Croatia all the way to penalties in the Round of 16 before seeing their tournament end in heartbreaking fashion. They walked away disappointed, but they also walked away knowing they belonged on that stage. That confidence doesn't disappear after four years. If anything, it grows.

They came back for 2026 with essentially the same identity, only now everything feels a little more polished.

In their opener against the Netherlands — a squad loaded with Premier League stars and Champions League regulars — Japan ended with a 2-2 draw that honestly felt more convincing than the final score. The Dutch had more possession, but Japan dictated the moments that actually mattered. Every time they forced a turnover, they attacked with purpose instead of simply just to survive, and by the end it felt like the Netherlands was just happy tha match was over.

Then Tunisia showed up, and Japan reminded everyone they don't have to play every match the same way.

Instead of absorbing pressure and picking their moments, they controlled almost everything from the opening whistle. Ayase Ueda scored twice, first with a beautiful curling strike from outside the box before adding a looping header late in the second half. Junya Ito added another after weaving through defenders on his own. It looked effortless for them out there.

That's probably my favorite thing about this Japanese team. They're incredibly flexible without ever feeling like they're changing who they are. If they need to defend for stretches, they're disciplined enough to do it. If they need to press higher, they'll make you uncomfortable for 90 minutes. If they're expected to have the ball, they don't suddenly look out of place. Everything feels organized and everyone understands their role. Takefusa Kubo might be the headline name, but every match seems to give us a different standout because the structure around them is so solid.

The next test is Sweden, and it doubles as the decisive match for second place in the group. A win sends Japan through. A draw could very well be enough too. Either way, the conversation around this team has already changed. We're well past asking whether Japan can compete with the world's best.

Colombia: The Most Complete Team You Might Be Sleeping On

Six points. Already through to the Round of 32. Control of their own destiny in Group K. Colombia has done just about everything you could ask from a team that missed the last World Cup entirely and came back looking like they had a point to prove.

The easy story to tell is that this is James Rodríguez's farewell tour. He's 34 now, and there's a very real chance this is the last time we see one of the greatest players in Colombian soccer history on the World Cup stage. If that's how it plays out, it'll be worth appreciating. He was the Golden Boot winner in 2014, he's still one of the smartest creators on the field whenever he puts on the yellow shirt, and you can still see flashes of the player who took over a World Cup a decade ago.

But if you're only looking at James, you're missing why this team actually feels dangerous. That starts with Luis Díaz.

Díaz just finished another outstanding season after making the move to Bayern Munich, and he looks like a player who has completely settled into life being one of Europe's elite. He scored seven goals during CONMEBOL qualifying, second only to Lionel Messi, and every time Colombia needs someone to stretch a defense or create something out of nothing, he's usually the first place they look. Against Uzbekistan in the opener, he was the most dangerous player on the field, and while the 3-1 made it look easy, Colombia honestly controlled even more of that game than the final score suggests.

The second match against DR Congo might've been even more impressive, even if it wasn't nearly as entertaining. Colombia controlled 64 percent of possession, outshot DR Congo 20-8, and spent most of the afternoon patiently waiting for the breakthrough instead of forcing one that wasn't there. Daniel Muñoz eventually found the winner, giving him his second goal of the tournament, but the bigger takeaway was how calm Colombia looked. They never felt rushed. They never looked frustrated. They just kept playing their game until it paid off.

That's the sign of a team that's comfortable in their own skin.

Néstor Lorenzo has built a squad that doesn't really have an obvious weakness. They can slow matches down when they need to. They can speed them up when Díaz gets space to run. They defend with discipline, they're organized in midfield, and they don't seem overly dependent on any one player having a spectacular afternoon. James can create. Díaz can change a game in an instant. On most nights, somebody is going to make your life miserable.

The final group game is Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo. Bernardo Silva. Bruno Fernandes. A team that just put five goals past Uzbekistan. It's exactly the kind of measuring-stick game you want before the knockout rounds. A win would make a statement. A draw would still feel like a solid result. Honestly, even a competitive loss probably wouldn't change how I look at Colombia going forward.

Norway: Erling Haaland Doesn't Need the World to Be Balanced

Without Haaland, I'm not sure anyone would've taken Norway all that seriously. They hadn't qualified since 1998. They ended up in a group with France. They're still a relatively small soccer nation compared to the heavyweights of Europe.

Then Erling Haaland scored twice against Iraq. Then he scored two more against Senegal.

And then Erling Haaland goes out and scores twice against Iraq, follows it up with two more against Senegal, and suddenly Norway has six points, four Haaland goals, and a knockout spot locked up before things even get tense.

That's what happens when the best striker on the planet decides he wants to have a World Cup.

Norway opened with a comfortable 4-1 win over Iraq before facing a much tougher test against Senegal, a team loaded with experience and built around players like Sadio Mané and Kalidou Koulibaly. The final score was 3-2, but it honestly felt more controlled than that for most of the afternoon. Haaland opened the scoring just before halftime, added another early in the second half after doing what he does better than almost anyone else — turning relentless pressure into a goal — and Leo Østigård's header off a corner stretched the lead even further. Senegal made things interesting late, but Norway never really looked rattled.

The funny thing about building a team around Haaland is that everyone knows exactly what you're trying to do, and it still doesn't seem to matter.

You can’t single-cover him. That’s not a real option. Double him, and now Martin Ødegaard has space to operate, and he’s been quietly running games in both matches without needing to force anything. Drop your line, and Haaland will just live in that space behind you for 90 minutes. Try to press, and Norway will happily go over the top and let him chase it down. Every choice feels wrong about five seconds after you make it.

That's the kind of problem that keeps coaches awake the night before a match.

Norway had only lost once in their last 18 matches coming into this tournament, and it doesn’t feel fluky when you watch them. There’s structure there. And now and now they have the confidence to know if things get tight, they’ve got the most unfair bailout option in the game.

Friday's showdown with France decides who wins the group. Both teams have already qualified, but there's still plenty on the line — including the Golden Boot. France is still one of the deepest and most talented squads in the tournament, led by Kylian Mbappé, who has somehow continued raising the bar even after becoming his country's all-time leading scorer.

It's also the kind of game Norway has spent years waiting to play. They can win it, and have every right to think that way.

Egypt: The Group G Chaos Nobody Predicted

Belgium came into this tournament looking like the obvious favorite to win Group G. The talent has never been the question. The expectation was simple: get through the group without much stress, then start thinking about the knockout rounds.

Instead, two matches in, they still haven't won.

A 1-1 draw against Egypt followed by a frustrating 0-0 stalemate against Iran has completely flipped the group on its head. Throw in Nathan Ngoy's red card against Iran, and Belgium suddenly looks like the team trying to survive instead of the one everyone else is chasing. That's not how anyone expected this group to unfold, but it's opened the door for Egypt to grab control, and they've looked more than ready to walk through it.

And yeah, a big part of that is Mohamed Salah. Of course it is.

At 33, still playing at a level where defenses have to account for him before they even think about anything else. But what stands out watching Egypt isn’t just that Salah is dangerous — it’s that he makes everything around him easier. The spacing looks better. The decisions come quicker. Even when he’s not directly involved, you can feel the attention he pulls. When he does get on the ball in a dangerous area, something’s coming out of it. Salah's become just as dangerous creating opportunities as he is finishing them himself.

The difference this time, though, is that Egypt finally feels like more than just Salah carrying the weight of an entire nation.

Omar Marmoush has developed into one of Europe's most dangerous attacking players since getting to Manchester City. He gives them another level of pace and directness that stretches defenses in ways Egypt hasn't always been able to do in the past. Trezeguet still seems to have that knack for showing up in big moments, and the entire attack feels less predictable. Opponents can't just throw two defenders at Salah and call it a day anymore because somebody else is usually waiting to make them pay.

That was obvious against New Zealand.

Egypt conceded first, and instead of looking rattled, they stuck with the game plan and slowly started taking control. Salah found the equalizer and eventually helped create another goal from a corner. Trezeguet added the insurance goal late, and by the final whistle, Egypt had secured the country's first World Cup win. More importantly, they looked like a team that expected to find a way back instead of hoping one would just show up.

That's a really valuable trait in tournament soccer because every knockout match eventually gets a little weird. You're going to concede goals. You're going to have stretches where nothing seems to work. The teams that keep advancing are usually the ones that stay composed when the game starts getting messy, and Egypt has shown plenty of that through its first two matches.

Cape Verde: The One No One Has an Answer For

This is Cape Verde's first World Cup. Ever.

They got here through one of the most remarkable qualifying runs in recent soccer history, and when the draw had them paired up with Spain, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia, most people figured they'd be fighting just to keep games respectable. That's usually how these stories go. A debutant shows up, enjoys the experience, maybe steals a point if everything breaks perfectly, and heads home with some fun memories.

Cape Verde never got that memo.

The first game was Spain. It ended 0-0.

And it didn’t feel like one of those scores where you’re waiting for the stats to tell the real story. It was the real story. Cape Verde didn’t sit in a shell and pray. They pressed when it made sense, they kept the ball when they could, and they created just enough to make Spain uncomfortable. Vozinha had his moments — and yeah, he came up big when needed — but this wasn’t a 12-save survival act. Spain struggled because Cape Verde made them struggle. There’s a difference.

Then came Uruguay, and somehow the performance got even more impressive.

The two-time world champions rolled into the match with Darwin Núñez, Federico Valverde, and a roster packed with players from Europe's biggest clubs. Cape Verde didn't care. Kevin Pina buried the country's first-ever World Cup goal with a beautiful free kick in the 21st minute, sending their fans into absolute mayhem. Uruguay eventually fought back to take the lead, and for a while it looked like reality had finally caught up to the tournament newcomers. Then veteran goalkeeper Fernando Muslera came charging out of his box for no good reason, and Hélio Varela calmly rolled the ball into an empty net. Suddenly Cape Verde had taken points off another giant.

That's two matches against Spain and Uruguay. Two points.

Not many people would've believed that before the tournament started.

Cape Verde now heads into its final group match against Saudi Arabia with a genuine chance to reach the knockout rounds. Win, and they're right in the conversation for second place. Even if they don't finish in the top two, they've already put themselves in the mix for one of the best third-place spots because of the two points along the way.

That's the part I keep coming back to.

They don't play like a team that's thrilled to be invited to the party. They play like a team that spent four years preparing for this exact opportunity. Logan Costa has been outstanding organizing the back line, the midfield never seems rushed when they're under pressure, and every time they spring forward on the counter, they do it with real purpose. Everything about them feels earned.

Cape Verde has a population of just over half a million people, scattered across a chain of islands off the coast of West Africa. On paper, they have no business trading blows with Spain and Uruguay.

Good thing World Cups aren't played on paper.

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