This game has no business feeling this important in the first week of October, but here we are.

The Falcons and Saints are both 1-2. Carolina’s sitting at 1-2, too. Tampa Bay's still fighting for their first win and now have to do it without their quarterback. Nobody in the NFC South has pulled away, which is either encouraging or a nice way of saying the whole division stinks.

These games count a little more because the teams play twice and could eventually use head-to-head results as a tiebreaker. Atlanta's already lost to Carolina, and New Orleans is just getting started with their division schedule.

So this isn’t just the last standalone game of the NFL week. It’s the first real chance for either team to take control of a division that still looks wide open — and a little confused.

Kickoff is Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN, with streaming available on ESPN+ and Disney+.

This Building Is Part Of The Matchup

The Superdome was already going to be loud. Monday’s anniversary celebration should make it completely unhinged.

Twenty years ago, the Saints returned to the Superdome for the first time after Hurricane Katrina forced them to spend the entire 2005 season without a true home. U2 and Green Day performed before the game. More than 70,000 people packed the building. Then, 83 seconds after kickoff, Steve Gleason came flying through Atlanta’s protection and blocked Michael Koenen’s punt.

Curtis Deloatch picked it up at the one and fell into the end zone, the Saints won 23-3 and one football play became a symbol of something much bigger than football.

New Orleans is bringing members of that 2006 team back Monday. Gleason and Deloatch will serve as Legends of the Game, and there's going to be a halftime show built around the city’s music and the anniversary.

Atlanta knows exactly what’s coming. Michael Penix Jr. talked about it this week:

It’s going to be rowdy.

That doesn’t decide the game, but pretending this is just a normal road environment would be ridiculous. The Falcons have to avoid letting one early penalty, turnover, or blocked kick turn the whole night into a replay of 2006.

Penix Gave Atlanta An Actual Offense

The Falcons scored 16 points in their first two games combined and didn’t run a single play in the red zone.

Then Michael Penix Jr. came back, and suddenly, everything looked different.

Atlanta piled up 498 yards, converted 60% of their third downs, and held the ball for more than 37 minutes in a 35-14 win at Green Bay. Penix started 1-of-5 with an interception, but he settled in and completed 17 of his next 20 passes for 239 yards and a touchdown.

More importantly, the Falcons finally looked like they had an offense that wasn’t asking Bijan Robinson to carry the whole thing while the defense sent all 11 at him.

Tommy Rees used screens and play action to get Penix comfortable. Drake London caught nine passes for 194 yards. Green Bay had to respect the middle of the field and the deeper routes, which opened up more room for Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr.

The Falcons finished with 242 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Bijan accounted for 194 of those yards and finished with 213 yards from scrimmage.

One good night doesn’t erase the first two disasters. Green Bay’s defense was awful, and Penix is still just getting back into things after a long recovery from knee surgery. But this game did show that Atlanta has an offensive formula that can work.

Run the ball. Keep Penix comfortable. Let London punish defenders who creep toward the line. And don’t make the quarterback solve every problem by himself.

Tyler Shough's Being Asked To Do Exactly That

New Orleans has the opposite problem.

Tyler Shough's completed 68.9% of his passes for 917 yards and eight touchdowns. Chris Olave already has 375 receiving yards. The Saints rank third in passing offense and are averaging 27 points per game.

When Shough's spinning it well, the offense moves.

The problem is that New Orleans keeps putting him in situations where he has to throw his way out of trouble the Saints helped create.

Shough threw for 410 yards in the opener against Detroit because New Orleans fell behind 21-0. He completed 27 of 34 passes and led a fourth-quarter comeback against Baltimore. Last week, he threw four touchdowns and helped build a 27-16 lead over Las Vegas.

Then the Saints turned the ball over four times in the fourth quarter and lost 35-27.

New Orleans has played roughly eight-and-a-half quarters and an overtime without a giveaway. During that stretch, they've outscored opponents 81-49. In the other three-and-a-half quarters, the Saints committed seven turnovers and were outscored 34-0.

That’s the entire season in two sentences.

Shough's been good enough to keep rescuing New Orleans, but he’s also been careless enough to keep creating the emergencies in the first place.

Monday’s matchup puts even more on his shoulders. Atlanta is allowing an NFL-low 47.7 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry. The Saints are averaging 3.8 yards per rush, and Alvin Kamara's really struggled with just 51 yards on 18 attempts.

New Orleans probably isn’t going to run their way through this defense. Shough will have to beat them through the air.

The good news is that Atlanta ranks 29th against the pass and won't have A.J. Terrell out there, who’s on injured reserve. Olave against a secondary missing their best corner is a matchup New Orleans has to attack.

Which Defense Can Create The Short Field?

Neither of these teams really has room to act superior here.

Atlanta has the NFL’s worst turnover margin at minus-six. New Orleans is 27th at minus-four. Both defenses should probably spend the week staring at those numbers.

New Orleans has the better pass rush, with seven sacks to Atlanta’s five. Chase Young has 3.5 of them by himself. The Saints’ best path to a short field is forcing Penix into obvious passing situations and finding out whether that calm finish at Green Bay holds up in a much louder building.

Getting to that point is the hard part.

New Orleans ranks 27th against the run, giving up 128.7 yards per game and 4.7 per carry. Linebackers Kaden Elliss and Pete Werner, along with edge rushers Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings, haven't practiced all week.

Atlanta’s defensive plan is a little cleaner: shut down the run, make Shough keep dropping back and wait for the mistake that seems to always show up.

That plan gets a lot less comfortable if Shough protects the ball and starts feeding Olave against an injured secondary.

The Matchup That Decides It

Everything comes back to Bijan Robinson against the Saints’ front.

Atlanta's second in the league in rushing. New Orleans is 27th in rushing defense. That's where this game is going to be won.

If the Saints can’t slow him down on early downs, the Falcons can quiet the crowd, protect Penix, and keep Shough on the sideline. The pass rush won’t mean much if Atlanta’s living in second-and-4 all night.

But if New Orleans can bottle up Robinson, the whole game changes. Penix will have to operate in the loudest environment he’s seen this season and Chase Young will get more chances to tee off.

Stopping Bijan is easier said than done though.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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