Four games in, there’s still plenty of room to explain things away. Maybe it was a bad bounce or just a brutal matchup. Maybe your team’s record doesn’t tell the whole story.

That gets a lot harder in Week 5.

The week starts with an 0-4 team trying to keep their season alive in Dallas, heads to London for a contender-or-impostor showdown and wraps up with Josh Allen facing Matthew Stafford. The first month gave us plenty of clues. Now those clues are starting to show us the real story.

Dallas Gets The First Pressure Test

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET On Prime Video

Dallas is 2-2, but the offense is starting to look like they know exactly what they want to be. Dak Prescott just threw for 335 yards against Houston, and CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards. It really seemed like covering him was more of a suggestion than an actual game plan.

The defense still gave up 397 yards and 7.6 yards per play, which is pretty much how Dallas turns every game into a stress test.

Tampa Bay's 0-4 and Baker Mayfield's expected to miss at least three weeks with a dislocated thumb. That puts undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels in line to make his second start. Of the previous 109 teams to start 0-4 since 1990, only one made the playoffs.

So for Tampa Bay, this is an elimination game essentially. For Dallas, it’s a chance to get above .500 before trips to Green Bay and Philadelphia. Lose this one at home, and the Cowboys are looking at a very different long weekend.

London Belongs To Jacksonville Until Further Notice

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET On NFL Network

Jacksonville isn’t heading to London for the experience anymore. The Jaguars are playing their 15th international game, more than any other franchise, and Trevor Lawrence is 4-3 there. At this point, it’s basically a long commute to a second home.

And this team has been pretty good once they get there. Jacksonville's 3-1 in London with a plus-51 point differential. They've also forced 39 takeaways since the start of last season, tied for the most in the league. They just got to Joe Burrow 20 times Sunday.

That’s a rough matchup for Philadelphia.

The Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down against the Rams and now have a league-high 15 three-and-outs. Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Lane Johnson, and several defensive starters are all dealing with injuries, too.

A Jaguars win would be even more proof that they're legitimate AFC contenders and turn Philadelphia’s two-game skid into a full-blown crisis. Jacksonville's spent years asking everyone to take them seriously. Sunday is its chance to make that argument impossible to ignore.

Sunday’s Division Games Have Real Weight

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET On FOX/Fox One and CBS/Paramount+

Bears-Packers is the early game to circle. Chicago’s 3-1 and just won twice with backup quarterbacks and 360 rushing yards in those two wins. Tyson Bagent’s expected to start again while Caleb Williams works his way back from a hamstring injury.

Green Bay’s 2-2 and keeps making every game harder than it needs to be. To make matters worse, they just lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper for the season. This rivalry didn’t need any extra fuel after last season.

Then 4-0 San Francisco visits 3-1 Seattle. The 49ers have scored 122 points and given up 64. Seattle’s the defending champion. A San Francisco win creates a two-game cushion; a Seattle win gives the division a tie at the top and gives the Seahawks the head-to-head edge.

That’s a massive swing for Oct. 11th.

There are other games on, Houston-Tennessee gives two 0-4 teams one chair and tells them to fight over it. Denver can bury the 0-4 Chargers while Kansas City watches from its 4-0 bye. Minnesota’s pass rush gets Tyler Shough after New Orleans spent far too much of Monday night trying to keep him upright. But those seem more like second-screen games to me.

Atlanta Suddenly Looks Like Atlanta Again

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET On NBC and Streaming On Peacock

Michael Penix Jr. has completely changed the feel around the Falcons.

In his first game back from last year’s ACL tear, Atlanta ran for 242 yards against Green Bay. Bijan Robinson had 194 of those yards and then Drake London added 194 through the air. Monday night looked just as smooth. Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. both scored twice, the offensive line controlled the game and Penix kept everything on schedule.

Now Baltimore comes to town, and Lamar Jackson is day to day with an ankle injury. The Ravens didn’t score after halftime once Jackson left Sunday’s game.

If Lamar plays, this could be one of the best run-game matchups of the week. If he doesn’t, Baltimore’s defense will have to hold up against Atlanta’s backfield while Tyler Huntley tries to piece together enough offense.

Either way, the Falcons can move ahead of Carolina in the NFC South. That would’ve sounded wildly optimistic two weeks ago. Now? Not so much.

Bills-Rams Is The Monday Night Calibration Game

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET On ABC and ESPN, Streaming On ESPN+ and Disney+

Buffalo and Los Angeles aren’t desperate. They’re still figuring out exactly how good they are.

The Bills are 3-1, but their defense just gave up 405 yards to New England. The Rams are 2-2 after outgaining Philadelphia 414-172 and finally finishing a game they spent most of the afternoon trying to claw back into.

Josh Allen going up against Aaron Donald and Trent McDuffie is more than enough reason to stay up. The bigger question is whether Buffalo can look like a complete team again, or whether the Rams can show that their uneven start was just noise.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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