The NFC feels impossible to sort out this year.

Seattle's coming off a Super Bowl win. The Rams might have the deepest roster in the conference. San Francisco went 12–5 last season despite another long list of injuries. Detroit and Green Bay still have two of the NFC’s best offenses. Chicago won the North, Philadelphia's only two years removed from a championship, and Washington's already shown what Jayden Daniels can do when everything clicks.

The problem isn’t finding seven playoff teams. It’s figuring out which good teams get left out.

After working through all 272 games, I ended up with six NFC teams winning at least 12 games, three teams from the NFC West making the playoffs, and the defending champions opening the postseason on the road.

The two picks I’ll have to defend most are Tampa Bay winning 12 games and Washington jumping from 5–12 to 11–6. Neither of those are a comfortable projection. Tampa’s win total is around 8.5 in the betting market, and Washington’s is around 7.5. But I’m taking both to win their divisions because I believe in their quarterbacks and I don’t see either division having a clear-cut favorite.

Here’s how the seven playoff teams shake out.

1. Detroit Lions

Fourteen wins is a huge jump for a team that went 9–8 last year. But the more I look at Detroit, the less wild it feels.

The Lions still finished sixth in offensive DVOA. Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta give them one of the deepest groups of skill players in football. Even with the offensive line in flux and the defense never really getting healthy, Detroit finished with a positive point differential. This looked more like a good team having a frustrating year than a team that suddenly fell apart.

The schedule gives the Lions a pretty clear path back. They get the Jets, Panthers, Cardinals, Dolphins, Falcons, Titans, and Giants. The NFC North won’t be a cakewalk, but Detroit doesn’t have to deal with the weekly street fight that is the NFC West, either.

The offensive line is the biggest question. Taylor Decker's gone, first-round pick Blake Miller's being thrown into the lineup right away, and Penei Sewell's moving to the left side. Isiah Pacheco’s knee injury also leaves the backfield a little thinner behind Gibbs. And with Drew Petzing taking over as offensive coordinator, Goff has another new voice and another version of the offense to learn.

Still, Detroit already has the hardest pieces to find. They have the smart quarterback, the explosive running back, and the receivers who make defenses cover every inch of the field. That stuff doesn’t just vanish after one disappointing season. Neither does Dan Campbell’s culture.

The defense should be better, too, as long as Aidan Hutchinson stays healthy. Detroit added DJ Wonnum and drafted Derrick Moore in the second round to give Hutchinson more help up front. The bigger concern is the secondary, where injuries to Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph have made safety depth a real problem early in the season.

Getting to 14 wins will take good health and a few close games breaking Detroit’s way. I think the schedule gives the Lions enough room for all of that. They win the North, grab the No. 1 seed, and make everybody else come through Ford Field.

2. Los Angeles Rams

This is the easiest team in the conference to talk yourself into.

The Rams scored 518 points last season and finished first in offensive DVOA, both through the air and on the ground. Matthew Stafford won MVP throwing to Puka Nacua, who caught 129 passes for 1,715 yards, and Davante Adams, who scored 14 touchdowns. Kyren Williams gave Sean McVay a reliable running game, which kept defenses from treating every snap like it was just another Stafford dropback.

And then there’s the defense. They finished fourth in DVOA before Los Angeles added Myles Garrett, Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, and brought back Aaron Donald.

Garrett set the single-season sack record with 23 last year. McDuffie's one of the few corners who can actually change how an offense has to play. The Rams did give up Jared Verse in the Garrett trade, so this wasn’t some painless Madden move. They gave up a young, foundational pass rusher and a lot of draft capital for the most disruptive defensive player in football.

That’s the kind of move a team makes when they know exactly where they are in the window.

Stafford's 38. Adams is 33. McVay isn’t interested in easing into some three-year reset. The Rams want another Super Bowl while Stafford can still stand in the pocket and pick apart whatever coverage a defense puts in front of him.

There are still some things that could go sideways. Nacua's got some off the field issues and could end up suspended to start the season. Garrett's had some knee swelling. The tackle depth could get shaky if Alaric Jackson misses time. Nate Scheelhaase's also a first-year offensive coordinator — but McVay is still calling the plays, so the basic identity of the offense isn’t going anywhere.

The NFC West will cost the Rams a few games. Seattle and San Francisco are too good for anybody to casually walk through this division at 6–0. That’s the biggest difference between Los Angeles finishing 13–4 here and Detroit getting to 14–3.

I still think the Rams are the best team in the conference. They just aren’t my No. 1 seed.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is where the projection starts feeling a little uncomfortable.

Tampa Bay went 8–9 last season after starting 6–2 and then dropping seven of their final nine games. The Buccaneers finished 18th in offensive DVOA, 19th on defense, and gave up more than 24 points per game. Then Mike Evans left for San Francisco after 12 seasons in Tampa where he racked up 13,052 receiving yards and 108 touchdowns.

So, yeah, predicting a four-win jump probably needs some explaining.

The case starts with Baker Mayfield and the pieces still around him. Bucky Irving already looks like one of the league’s most dangerous young running backs. Emeka Egbuka made an immediate impact as a rookie. Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan give Mayfield two more real options, and Cade Otton's still a useful target over the middle.

Nobody’s replacing Evans one-for-one. That’s not how this works. Tampa will have to make up his production by committee and find a new answer when they need somebody to win a contested catch on third-and-8. Luckily for them, Egbuka looks more than ready to step into that role.

Zac Robinson's Tampa Bay’s fifth offensive coordinator in five seasons, which is, frankly, a ridiculous amount of turnover. His biggest job will be keeping Mayfield aggressive without making the entire offense depend on him pulling something out of thin air late in the down.

The defensive changes are more interesting to me. Tampa added Alex Anzalone, A’Shawn Robinson, and Al-Quadin Muhammad, then drafted Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. with the 15th pick and linebacker Josiah Trotter in the second round. Vita Vea’s contract situation also got resolved before the season, so the middle of Todd Bowles’ defense is still intact.

This probably isn’t going to be an elite defense. But it should be deeper and better at creating pressure without asking Bowles to dial up a blitz every other snap.

The 12-win projection also says something about the NFC South. Carolina won the division last year, but there isn’t a team here that should scare Tampa Bay. If the Buccaneers can take care of business in their six divisional games and Mayfield stays healthy, the rest of the schedule is manageable enough for them to stack up wins.

I don’t think Tampa Bay's the third-best team in the NFC. I do think they're the best team in their division, and the playoff format rewards that with the No. 3 seed.

4. Washington Commanders

Washington's the pick most likely to make this whole thing look either really smart or really dumb.

The Commanders went 5–12 last season. They finished 23rd in offensive DVOA and 28th on defense. Kliff Kingsbury and Joe Whitt Jr. are gone, so David Blough and Daronte Jones are taking over as coordinators. Blough's only been coaching for a few years, and he’ll be calling plays for the first time.

The schedule isn’t doing Washington any favors, either. It’s one of the toughest in the league, and the injuries have already started piling up. Laremy Tunsil had surgery for a torn triceps and could miss most of the season. Johnny Newton tore his pectoral muscle. Drake Jackson is out for the year, and several other defensive additions have dealt with injuries during camp.

So, no, 11 wins isn’t exactly the safe pick here.

I’m making the jump because of Jayden Daniels. We’ve already seen him take Washington to the NFC Championship Game as a rookie. Last season’s injuries and regression were real, but they didn’t erase the player who completely changed the feel of this franchise a year earlier.

The Commanders also gave him a more interesting group of weapons. Stefon Diggs came into town to help Terry McLaurin on the outside. Chig Okonkwo adds some speed at tight end. Rachaad White gives the backfield a legitimate receiving option, and third-round receiver Antonio Williams gives Blough another movable piece to work with.

The defense was rebuilt with a lot more speed, too. Odafe Oweh gives Washington a proven edge rusher. Leo Chenal and first-round linebacker Sonny Styles can fly around. Charles Omenihu, K’Lavon Chaisson, Amik Robertson, Nick Cross, and Ahkello Witherspoon give Jones more options with his fronts and coverages.

Losing Tunsil changes the ceiling of the offense, and Washington can’t spend the first month of the season trying to figure out their protection rules. Daniels is going to take some hits. He’ll have to create outside the structure of the offense, and there will be games where the new system looks pretty messy.

But I also just don’t see a runaway favorite in the NFC East. Philadelphia's changing offensive coordinators again and traded A.J. Brown. Dallas is still trying to build a defense you can trust against good teams. The Giants are starting another transition under John Harbaugh.

Washington doesn’t need to become the best roster in the conference. They need Daniels to be the best quarterback in the division, and they need the rebuilt defense to go from awful to just above average. On my board, that’s enough for 11 wins and an NFC East title.

5. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay finished 9–7–1 last season, made the playoffs, and then blew an 18-point halftime lead to Chicago in the wild-card round. That ending was ugly, but it also made the Packers look a little shakier than they really were.

The offense finished fifth in DVOA, and Jordan Love ranked second among quarterbacks in EPA per dropback while throwing for nearly 4,000 yards. He did that even after Tucker Kraft went down with a torn ACL halfway through the season.

The Packers expect Kraft back early in the season. Micah Parsons is also working his way back from the ACL tear he suffered in December, after putting up 12.5 sacks in his first season with Green Bay. If both players are close to full strength by October, this team could look a lot different than the one that limped into January.

There’s been plenty of turnover, too. Rasheed Walker, Quay Walker, Romeo Doubs, Rashan Gary, Kingsley Enagbare, and Elgton Jenkins are all gone. Jordan Morgan is taking over at left tackle, and the defense is moving from Jeff Hafley to Jonathan Gannon after Hafley left to become Miami’s head coach.

Green Bay tried to make up for some of those losses by adding Javon Hargrave, trading for Zaire Franklin, and drafting cornerback Brandon Cisse, defensive tackle Chris McClellan, and edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton. The defense is younger and probably a little more unpredictable, but a healthy Parsons can cover up a lot of problems.

The Packers also have the fourth-hardest schedule based on last year’s opponent winning percentage. That’s the main reason I have them finishing behind Detroit, even with a 12–5 record.

By January, though, this could be one of the most complete teams in the NFC. Love's just entering his prime and Parsons gives Green Bay the kind of game-wrecking defender who can take over a playoff game by himself.

6. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle is the defending champion, and I’ve got them dropping from 14 wins to 12 and losing the division.

That’s not me predicting some kind of Super Bowl hangover. It’s more about how brutal the NFC West is going to be.

The Seahawks were really, really good last season. Mike Macdonald built the best defense in football, Sam Darnold gave the offense the stability they needed, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba turned into a legitimate No. 1 receiver. Seattle didn’t luck into a championship because a bunch of weird things broke their way. They were one of the best teams in the league from September all the way through February.

But the changes still matter. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left to become the Raiders’ head coach, so first-time coordinator Brian Fleury now has to keep the offense moving. Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III is in Kansas City now, and Boye Mafe, Riq Woolen, and Coby Bryant are all also gone from the defense.

Seattle did keep Rashid Shaheed and extended Smith-Njigba. Rookie Jadarian Price gives the backfield some extra speed, but Zach Charbonnet is still working his way back from an ACL injury, and replacing Walker won’t be simple.

The defense is why I’m still comfortable giving Seattle 12 wins. Macdonald and Aden Durde are both back and that front can create pressure from all kinds of looks. And to make matters worse, the secondary's good enough to make quarterbacks hold the ball just a little longer than they want to when the pass rush doesn't get home.

They may not win the toughest division in football, but that’s a pretty scary six seed.

7. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco had the second-best offense in football by DVOA last season. But their defense ranked 26th. That pretty much tells you what the offseason was about.

The 49ers added Osa Odighizuwa, brought Dre Greenlaw back, and got Raheem Morris to replace Robert Saleh, who took the Tennessee head-coaching job. Morris is now San Francisco’s fifth defensive coordinator in five seasons. He’s experienced and flexible, but at some point, all that turnover means players are spending more time learning a new system than playing fast in the one they already know.

The offense looks different, too. Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings are gone. Ricky Pearsall's out for the season. George Kittle's still working his way back from the Achilles tear he suffered in January.

San Francisco tried to patch some of that together by signing Mike Evans and Christian Kirk and then drafting De’Zhaun Stribling with their first pick. Evans gives Brock Purdy the big, dependable outside target the offense needed after losing Aiyuk and Jennings. Kirk can work the middle of the field when he’s healthy, which is a pretty important qualifier.

Really, this whole projection comes down to health.

Nick Bosa's still being managed as he works back from his torn ACL. Fred Warner's coming back from a fractured ankle. Mykel Williams is another guy coming back from an ACL injury. Christian McCaffrey's healthy for now, but the depth behind him has already taken some hits.

If the main pieces stay on the field, Kyle Shanahan and Purdy can get this offense back into the top five. McCaffrey still forces defenses to show their hand before the snap, and Evans gives Purdy a big target to lean on whenever a safety creeps toward the backfield.

Twelve wins would usually get you a home playoff game. In the NFC West, it sends the 49ers to Los Angeles as the No. 7 seed after a three-way 12–5 wild-card tie-breaker goes their way.

The Two Omissions That Hurt

Philadelphia's the best team left out, and it’s not particularly close.

The Eagles still have Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, one of the league’s best defensive tackles in Jalen Carter, and a secondary built around Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. Vic Fangio's still running the defense, and Philadelphia’s schedule isn't overly daunting.

The problem is that the questions are sitting in some pretty important places. The Eagles traded A.J. Brown to New England and are installing their fifth offense in five seasons under first-time coordinator Sean Mannion. Jeff Stoutland is gone, Lane Johnson's getting closer to the end of his career, and both Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson dealt with injuries last season.

Philadelphia also brought in Jonathan Greenard to lead the pass rush, but he opened camp on the PUP list with a pectoral injury. First-round receiver Makai Lemon, Dontayvion Wicks, Hollywood Brown, and Elijah Moore give Hurts plenty of options, but none of them are A.J. Brown. You can’t just swap out a receiver like that and expect the offense to look exactly the same.

The Eagles can absolutely win the East. I just have the offensive transition costing them a few frustrating games early, while Washington takes the head-to-head matchups that ultimately decide the division.

Chicago's the other painful one. Ben Johnson took the Bears from five wins to 11 and built a top-10 offense in his first season. Caleb Williams threw for 3,942 yards, and D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai gave Chicago one of the league’s more efficient rushing attacks.

The issue is the defense. They finished 25th in DVOA and leaned heavily on takeaways — it can be really hard to repeat that kind of luck. Chicago also lost both starting safeties, including Kevin Byard after his seven-interception All-Pro season, and now has to deal with the hardest schedule in the league.

Declan Doyle left to become Baltimore’s offensive coordinator, too. That’s not ideal, but with Johnson there, I don’t think it’s a fatal loss. The bigger concern is the combination of defensive regression, a first-place schedule, and six games against Detroit, Green Bay, and a revitalized Minnesota.

That’s enough to push a good Bears team out of the playoff field.

In another division, Philadelphia and Chicago might both get in. In this NFC, there just aren’t enough chairs.

How the NFC Playoffs Play Out

Wild Card Weekend

(2) Rams Over (7) 49ers

San Francisco can be healthy and still lose this game. Honestly, this is just too much for this 49ers roster to overcome.

The Rams’ offense is elite. Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams give Sean McVay enough answers to put up points against anybody. The defense has also been completely reworked, with a new-look secondary built around Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, the single-season sack leader in Myles Garrett, and likely the best defensive tackle of all time, Aaron Donald, coming out of retirement while still in his prime. Barring a run of injuries, they should easily be one of the best units in the league.

That’s what makes this matchup so frustrating for San Francisco. This is a good 49ers roster. It might be a really good one. But the NFC West is brutal, and the Rams have too many ways to make a team pay. If the 49ers play light to protect against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, Kyren Williams can keep Los Angeles on schedule. If they bring pressure, Matthew Stafford knows where the answer is before the rush gets there.

Purdy, McCaffrey, and Evans will make plays. The problem is asking San Francisco to do that for four quarters while Myles Garrett attacks the edge and Trent McDuffie takes away the 49ers’ best third-down option.

The 49ers keep it close into the second half. Then Los Angeles forces one obvious passing situation, Garrett wrecks it, and the Rams pull away.

(6) Seahawks Over (3) Buccaneers

This is technically an upset, but I’m not sure it’ll feel like one by kickoff.

Tampa Bay beat Seattle 38–35 last season in one of the weirdest quarterback games of the year. Mayfield completed 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards. Darnold threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns before a late interception gave Tampa the deciding possession. Egbuka had 163 receiving yards. Smith-Njigba had 132.

The bigger thing is what Seattle became after that game. Macdonald’s defense grew into a championship unit. They disguise coverages and can consistently get home with four rushers. Tampa’s offense is still dangerous, but Evans isn’t there anymore when Mayfield needs to throw up a 50-50 ball and hope his guy makes a play.

Seattle’s running game could have a tough afternoon, and the Buccaneers should be able to put some pressure on Darnold. I just trust the Seahawks’ defense more than I trust either offense to win this game late. Seattle forces one big turnover and sends the defending champs into the divisional round.

(5) Packers Over (4) Commanders

Green Bay beat Washington 27–18 last season, with Love throwing for 292 yards and two touchdowns and the Packers sacking Daniels four times.

This is a weird one for me because I actually trust Washington’s quarterback more. Usually, that’s enough to sway me in a playoff matchup. Daniels can make plays that most quarterbacks simply can’t, and Washington has more weapons now on the outside.

I still think the offenses are pretty close, though. Daniels will create some explosive plays, and Love has enough around him to attack a Washington secondary that’s been rebuilt. Kraft coming back also gives Green Bay a much better option over the middle.

The difference is the depth around the quarterbacks.

A healthy Parsons against a Washington offensive line probably still missing Tunsil is the matchup I can’t get past. Gannon can move Parsons around and make the Commanders figure out where he is on every snap. Green Bay’s younger secondary should be much more settled after a full season together.

I trust Daniels more than I trust Love in a vacuum. I just don’t think Washington can ask him to carry them past this Packers roster.

Divisional Round

(1) Lions Over (6) Seahawks

Seattle’s reward for beating Tampa is a trip to Detroit to face a rested Lions offense. Not exactly a great prize.

The Seahawks have the defense to make this uncomfortable. They can pressure Goff without giving him an easy answer in coverage, and their secondary tackles well enough to keep St. Brown from turning every short catch into a first down.

The bye ends up being the difference. Detroit gets an extra week for their rebuilt offensive line to rest up. Gibbs also won’t be carrying the extra workload Seattle’s backs just took on during Wild Card Weekend.

This won’t be the shootout Detroit would prefer. Seattle should be able to slow things down and drag the game into the fourth quarter to try and give Darnold a chance to steal it.

Eventually, though, Gibbs breaks off one big run against a tired front. Then Goff finds St. Brown on a third down that lets Detroit bleed out the clock.

Seattle’s repeat bid ends here.

(2) Rams Over (5) Packers

The Rams will probably have a little more breathing room against Green Bay than they did against San Francisco.

The Packers can absolutely score. Love will probably hit Watson or Reed for at least one big play, and Jacobs gives Green Bay a way to make Los Angeles pay if the Rams get too caught up in stopping the passing game.

But eventually, I think the protection matchup starts to decide things. Morgan will have a full season at left tackle by then, but handling Myles Garrett in a road playoff game is a completely different challenge. The Rams can get pressure without blitzing, and McDuffie gives them a way to mess with whichever receiver Love is leaning on most.

Green Bay makes the Rams work early, but Los Angeles takes control after halftime and moves on without the late-game panic they needed to survive against San Francisco.

NFC Championship Game

(2) Rams Over (1) Lions

This is the matchup I was hoping for after working through the whole bracket: Stafford going back to Detroit, Goff facing the team that traded him, and two offenses doing everything they can to try and break the scoreboard.

The Lions have the better running back. The Rams have the better pass rush. Detroit gets to play at home. But Los Angeles has the better secondary, and I trust Stafford just a little more if this turns into a straight-up passing game.

Neither defense will get much of a break.

Gibbs forces the Rams to decide whether McDuffie should stay glued to St. Brown or creep closer to the line. Williams keeps the safeties honest. LaPorta finds room whenever Los Angeles spreads out to deal with the receivers.

On the other side, Nacua and Adams go after a Detroit secondary that’s been dealing with depth issues since August. Hutchinson gets home a few times, but Stafford gets the ball out quickly enough to keep the Lions’ pass rush from taking over. McVay keeps moving Nacua around, and every new spot creates another problem for Detroit to solve with Adams or Williams.

This feels like one of those conference championship games where 30 points is just the starting point. Detroit scores late to tie it, and Stafford gets the ball back with enough time for one last drive in the stadium where his career began.

I've got Los Angeles going back to the Super Bowl for the second time in the Stafford era. That doesn’t mean Detroit’s 14-win season was a fluke or that the Lions blew their chance.

It means the Rams built the deepest win-now roster we've seen in quote some time.

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.

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