The Packers and Vikings haven’t played a single meaningful snap yet, and Sunday’s loser won’t be anywhere close to eliminated. But that doesn’t mean this game is just another Week 1 matchup.

These teams share the NFC North with the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions, so they’ll see each other twice while chasing the same division title and the guaranteed home playoff game that comes with it. Every win against a division rival matters a little more because it also gives a real rival a loss.

That’s why this opener carries some real weight. Green Bay and Minnesota have 16 games left after Sunday, but one of them will already have an early edge in the race.

One Win Can Already Create Separation

The Packers went 9-7-1 last season and made the playoffs before losing to Chicago in the Wild Card round. Minnesota finished 9-8 and missed the postseason, even after winning their last five games.

That’s how close these teams were. Green Bay got one extra game in January, but neither team exactly ran away from the other during the regular season.

They split their two matchups, too, though the second one came with a pretty big asterisk. Green Bay handled Minnesota 23-6 in November, sacking J.J. McCarthy five times. Then the Vikings won the mostly meaningless Week 18 rematch where the Packers rested most of their starters.

So, yeah, there’s some history here already. Both teams are coming into this season expecting to make the playoffs, and one of them is going to leave Week 1 with an early division win and a little extra confidence.

Green Bay Still Has The Safer Foundation

The biggest thing Green Bay has going for them is pretty simple: Jordan Love knows what he’s doing in this offense. He’s coming into his fourth season as the Packers’ starting quarterback, while Kyler Murray is getting ready for his first real game in Minnesota’s system.

Love has led Green Bay to the playoffs in each of his first three seasons as the starter. He’s thrown 80 touchdowns and just 28 interceptions during that stretch, and he’s now at the point where Matt LaFleur trusts him to change protections and handle the offense at the line of scrimmage.

That experience could matter against Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who has a way of making a normal passing situation feel like every defender is standing in the wrong place on purpose. The Vikings crowd the line, show pressure from all over the formation, and don’t tell you who’s actually coming until the ball gets snapped.

Love said this week that Minnesota’s pressure can show up on any down. At least he’s seen this movie before. Sunday will be his sixth time preparing for a Flores defense since taking over as Green Bay’s starter.

The Packers should also have a full stable to work with in the passing game. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft are finally healthy at the same time, and second-year receiver Matthew Golden gives Green Bay another player who can make something happen downfield. Watson, Reed, and Kraft didn’t play one snap together last season, so this group should have more answers than they did for most of 2025.

Green Bay isn’t exactly walking into this game at full strength, though. Josh Jacobs is still on the Commissioner Exempt list, and Micah Parsons will miss at least the first four games while he recovers from knee surgery.

That leaves MarShawn Lloyd leading a pretty inexperienced backfield and forces the Packers to find ways to create pressure without the guy who had 12.5 sacks last season.

Over the course of a full season, I’d probably trust Green Bay’s roster more. Right now, though, the Packers are a little easier to deal with.

Minnesota Has A Very Real Path

Minnesota’s whole case starts with one question: What can Kevin O’Connell get out of Kyler Murray?

The Vikings finished 28th in total offense and 29th in passing last season, bouncing between J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer. That’s not exactly a recipe for offensive stability. Murray won the job after signing a one-year deal, and now he gets the kind of supporting cast he hasn’t had in quite a while.

Justin Jefferson has started his career with six straight 1,000-yard seasons, which is a ridiculous way to begin an NFL career. Jordan Addison gives Minnesota another receiver Green Bay can’t ignore, and then Jauan Jennings and T.J. Hockenson make it tough to spend the entire afternoon rolling coverage toward Jefferson.

The Vikings also want to make Murray’s life easier with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason in the backfield. Minnesota went 7-2 last season when they ran for more than 100 yards, and a healthier offensive line led by Christian Darrisaw gives that plan a much better chance of working.

Green Bay’s defense still has Xavier McKinney patrolling the back end, and the Packers added veterans Zaire Franklin and Javon Hargrave. But Micah Parsons’ absence changes this matchup. Murray can hurt a defense with his legs, and if Green Bay gives him too much time, he’ll eventually find Jefferson or Addison somewhere downfield.

Minnesota’s defense can keep this game close by themselves. The Vikings ranked third in total defense and second against the pass last season, and Brian Flores still has Dallas Turner, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, Byron Murphy Jr., and a legend who's seen it all in Harrison Smith to work with. That’s a pretty good group, and it’s one reason this feels like a much tougher opener for Green Bay than people are making it seem.

Give Me Green Bay, Barely

There isn’t a pick here that feels especially comfortable. Minnesota’s at home, has the more proven group of skill players, and has a defense that could make Green Bay’s rebuilt offensive line sweat.

I’m still leaning Packers, mostly because I like their overall roster — especially those overlooked positions like linebacker and guard. Plus, Jordan Love knows Matt LaFleur’s offense, he’s seen Brian Flores’ pressure packages before, and he shouldn’t need everything around him to be perfect to put together a good afternoon.

Kyler Murray could eventually look really good in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. I really think by the end of the year, he will. But asking him to immediately keep pace with Love while learning a new system and dealing with a Green Bay secondary that can make you pay for one bad decision feels like a lot for his first game.

Packers 27, Vikings 24. Green Bay gets the early division win, but Minnesota should make it pretty clear that the NFC North isn’t going to be decided anytime soon.

The Packers and Vikings kick off Sunday, Sept. 13th, at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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