Jalen Hurts won Super Bowl MVP just 18 months ago. Now, somehow, we’re already talking about him wearing Honolulu blue.

That is the NFL for you.

ESPN’s Dan Graziano recently looked ahead to the quarterback situations that could become major storylines by 2027, and one of his more surprising ideas involved the Lions. His long-shot scenario: Detroit misses the playoffs again, decides Jared Goff isn't the quarterback who can finish the job, and looks for a veteran replacement. One of the names he mentioned was Jalen Hurts.

It sounds absurd right now. The Eagles just won a Super Bowl with Hurts, and neither team is actively looking for a new quarterback.

But that's what makes the idea interesting. For it to happen, both teams would have to take a major step backward at the same time. Detroit would need to lose faith in Goff, Philadelphia would need to lose faith in Hurts, and both front offices would have to somehow make the money work.

That is a lot of “ifs.” But in the NFL, those “ifs” can pile up quickly.

This Needs Two Different Disasters

1. A Detroit Downfall

The Detroit half of this is a lot harder to imagine than one disappointing season might make it seem. The Lions went 9-8 and missed the playoffs in 2025, but Jared Goff still completed 68 percent of his passes for 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions. He finished second in the league in passing yards, second in touchdowns, and third in passer rating. Detroit also ranked fourth in scoring and fifth in total offense.

So, yeah, the frustration isn’t really about Goff being bad. It’s about the Lions having so much around him, and still not getting where they want to go.

Detroit got all the way to the NFC Championship Game after the 2023 season and had a 17-point lead on San Francisco at halftime before watching the Super Bowl appearance slip away. Then they went 15-2 in 2024, earned the No. 1 seed, and turned the ball over five times in a 45-31 divisional-round loss to Washington. Last season brought a different kind of disappointment. They didn’t even make it back to January, and six turnovers in a Christmas loss to Minnesota officially knocked them out.

Goff was responsible for five of those turnovers. He threw two interceptions and somehow lost three fumbles. It was about as ugly as a loss can get, especially when the rest of Goff’s season had been pretty damn good.

Now there's real pressure on him in 2026. The Lions aren’t trying to figure out whether Goff's a good quarterback. They figured that out a long time ago. He helped pull the franchise out of the basement and gave a fan base that had spent decades expecting the worst a real Super Bowl window.

The question now is whether “good” is still enough when the roster's this talented and this expensive. Graziano’s most likely outcome is also the most sensible one: Detroit has a loaded roster, a manageable schedule and enough offense to get back to the top of the NFC North.

If the Lions win the division and make a serious playoff run, this whole conversation probably never sees the light of day again.

2. A Philly Phenomenon

Philadelphia’s side would need an even bigger collapse because Hurts has already done the thing Detroit's still trying to do. He’s taken the Eagles to two Super Bowls and played well in both, finally winning the second one. He left New Orleans with the MVP trophy after completing 17 of 22 passes, throwing two touchdowns, and leading Philadelphia with 72 rushing yards in a 40-22 demolition of Kansas City.

The season after that title was a lot messier. Philadelphia still went 11-6 and won the NFC East, and Hurts finished with a career-high 25 touchdown passes against just six interceptions. Those numbers look pretty good until you look at the offense around them. The Eagles ranked 24th in total yards, 23rd in passing, and 19th in scoring before putting up only 19 points in a home wild-card loss to San Francisco. Hurts threw for 168 yards, and the defending champions were done before the divisional round.

The Eagles didn’t treat it like a harmless little slump. They replaced offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo with 33-year-old Sean Mannion, traded A.J. Brown to New England for a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-rounder, and lost longtime offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland.

But at some point, if they've fixed everything else around the quarterback, the finger comes back around to him.

If Hurts adjusts and the Eagles make another playoff run, this whole conversation disappears. The next one would be about how much it’ll cost to extend him.

Philadelphia's Already Shown Their Hand

The reason no one can completely dismiss this is that the Eagles have already shown they’ll make a massive quarterback decision when they think the relationship has run its course.

Philadelphia signed Carson Wentz to a four-year, $128 million extension in June 2019. Less than two years later, after the relationship with the organization had fallen apart and Hurts had taken his job, Howie Roseman traded Wentz to Indianapolis and accepted what was then the largest single-player dead-cap charge in league history.

The contract hurt. Staying stuck in that situation probably would’ve hurt more.

Hurts isn’t Wentz, though. Wentz had never won a playoff game for Philadelphia and was coming off a season where he led the league in interceptions. Hurts is 57-25 as a starter, 6-4 in the playoffs, and has accounted for seven touchdowns across two Super Bowls.

That kind of resume should make him untouchable. And yet Hurts still gets dragged through the mud constantly in the media.

Some of that criticism is lazy. Winning a Super Bowl, reaching another one, and consistently putting Philadelphia in position to contend should count for something. Hurts has been the quarterback for a team that’s won a lot of football games, and it’s hard to argue with the results.

It’s also hard to argue with all of the criticism.

Hurts’ passing numbers haven’t always matched the winning. Last season was frustrating, but it wasn’t a total statistical disaster. A 98.5 passer rating, 25 touchdowns, and six interceptions would get most quarterbacks praised for protecting the football. But he was also 18th in both yards per attempt and EPA per dropback.  

That’s the weird middle ground Hurts lives in. The team success says he should be treated like one of the league’s elite quarterbacks. The individual passing production, especially in some of his down years, gives people plenty of ammunition to question whether he’s actually driving that success or just catching a ride with a great roster, a dominant run game, and an excellent defense.

Both things can be true. Hurts can be a winning quarterback who's played well in the biggest games and still have stretches where the passing offense looks limited. He can be good enough to win a Super Bowl and still leave people wondering whether the Eagles can win another one if he has to throw them there.

Hurts also ran less than he had in any season since becoming Philadelphia’s full-time starter, finishing with 421 yards and eight touchdowns after topping 600 rushing yards and 10 scores in each of the previous four years. That could mean the Eagles are trying to preserve him physically. It could also mean they’ve become too dependent on a version of Hurts who creates advantages with his legs, even as they ask him to become a more traditional passer.

Maybe Sean Mannion’s offense finds the right balance. Maybe it gives Hurts more play-action opportunities and more chances to use his legs without turning every game into a referendum on whether he can win from the pocket. If that happens, this whole conversation goes away pretty quickly.

Roseman’s willingness to trade A.J. Brown should say something, though. Brown topped 1,000 yards in all four of his Philadelphia seasons and owns the two highest single-season receiving totals in franchise history. The Eagles moved him anyway once the relationship became a weekly talking point.

That doesn’t mean Hurts is next. Brown's a receiver. Hurts is the quarterback who helped deliver the franchise their second Lombardi Trophy. Those decisions aren’t remotely equal.

But the trade did give Philadelphia more flexibility. The Eagles currently have one first-round pick in the 2027 draft and two in 2028, along with 15 total selections across those two years before compensatory picks are added. The 2027 quarterback class is expected to be loaded, with Arch Manning, Dante Moore, and CJ Carr being the early names to watch. If Philadelphia decides they need a reset, they have enough draft capital to chase a rookie without waiting for the roster to completely fall apart.

Hurts’ no-trade clause gives him way more control than Wentz had. He could limit the market to contenders or use his approval as leverage for a new contract. That makes it harder for Roseman to create a bidding war, especially if everyone knows Philadelphia has already decided to move on.

It also makes Detroit appealing. If Hurts is ever willing to leave the only NFL organization he’s known, he probably isn’t going to waive that clause for a teardown. The Lions could offer an elite running back, established receivers, a respected head coach, and a roster built to win right away.

The Eagles still have to reach the point where they’re willing to let that player go. A normal playoff season won’t do it. One bad month probably won’t either. The new offense would have to expose a real disconnect between Hurts and the coaching staff, and Roseman would have to believe that the problem won’t be fixed by changing a coordinator or adding another piece around him.

That’s the part of Graziano’s scenario that feels least likely. Philadelphia knows how hard it is to replace a quarterback who can win a Super Bowl. Hurts has already done that, which gives him a much longer leash than Wentz ever had.

Still, the leash isn’t endless. The Eagles can’t ignore the passing numbers forever just because Hurts has won a lot of games. At some point, the team has to decide whether the winning is proof that Hurts is the answer or proof that the roster's been good enough to cover his flaws.

The Market Could Get Crowded Fast

Detroit would be the most fascinating Hurts destination, but it wouldn’t be the only team calling if Philadelphia ever actually opened that door.

Pittsburgh's probably the clearest contender-ready alternative. Aaron Rodgers has said 2026 will be his last season, and Mike McCarthy gets this year to figure out what he has in Will Howard and third-round pick Drew Allar. If Rodgers keeps the Steelers respectable and neither of the young quarterbacks separates themselves, Pittsburgh could end up in that awkward middle ground they've been in since Big Ben: too good to draft near the top, but not good enough to feel comfortable rolling into another season with a bridge quarterback.

Hurts would let the Steelers skip that whole process. McCarthy's spent most of his career building offenses around established quarterbacks, and Pittsburgh's shown over and over that they'd rather stay competitive than tear everything down for a high draft pick.

The problem is what Philadelphia would want in return. The Eagles aren’t going to hand over a 29-year-old Super Bowl MVP for a couple of hopeful mid-round picks, and the Steelers would have to decide whether it’s worth spending premium draft capital before they even know what they have in Allar.

Atlanta could be even more desperate by then. Michael Penix Jr. is coming back from surgery to repair a partially torn ACL, and Tua Tagovailoa only signed a one-year deal. That leaves Kevin Stefanski with two former top-10 picks, two lengthy injury histories, and no real certainty past this season.

Hurts would walk into an offense with Bijan Robinson and Drake London and give Atlanta their most stable answer at quarterback since Matt Ryan. The Falcons would still have the 2027 draft to consider, along with the option of using the franchise tag on Tagovailoa. So, like most of these scenarios, it would all depend on the season going wrong in a very specific way.

Tampa Bay might be the cleanest potential opening. Baker Mayfield came into training camp in the final year of his contract and said he's done negotiating until after the season. He’s made it clear he wants to stay, and the Bucs have continued to call him their franchise quarterback. Still, he's going into a contract year after an 8-9 season ended their run of four straight NFC South titles.

If Mayfield plays well, Tampa Bay should pay him and move on. If the Buccaneers struggle again and the relationship falls apart, they could be looking for another veteran quarterback at the exact moment Hurts becomes available. A trade within the NFC wouldn’t be Philadelphia’s first choice, but Hurts’ no-trade clause means the Eagles might not get to steer him toward the AFC just because it’s more convenient.

Most likely, none of these teams get anywhere close to that point. Goff leads Detroit back to the playoffs, Hurts looks more comfortable in Sean Mannion’s offense, and this becomes one of those August ideas everyone forgets by October.

But one more disappointing Lions season and one truly ugly Eagles season could change the conversation quickly.

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.

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