This offseason didn’t really have that one quarterback move where you sit back and go, “Alright, that changes everything.”

No massive trade. No huge free agent signing. No clear, obvious answer being dropped into a contender.

Instead, it felt like a bunch of quarterbacks getting reshuffled between a handful of teams — guys one organization looked at and said, “This isn’t quite it,” while another immediately convinced themselves, “He’ll be good here, though.”

Tua gets dumped after Miami finally hits a breaking point, and Atlanta brings him in while still trying to figure out Michael Penix Jr. Malik Willis goes from a small-sample success story in Green Bay to being handed the keys to the Dolphins’ offense. Kyler Murray gets cut from the Cardinals, and Minnesota scoops him up in what may be the best move of them all. The Cardinals then went out and got a backup, letting Jacoby Brissett ride out this year. And the Jets… the Jets just need something, anything, that resembles a normal quarterback situation.

So let’s take a look at what these guys have actually been, why their previous teams moved on, and what things could look like for them heading into 2026.

Miami Is All-In on a Malik Willis Projection

I like Malik Willis. I think one day, he could become a pretty good quarterback in this league. But I just don't know I'd be willing to bet $22-million a year that he can be that this year with this roster.  

That doesn’t mean I don’t get the logic. Miami moved on from Tua Tagovailoa after a brutal 2025 season that ended with him getting benched for rookie Quinn Ewers, and they did so knowing full well they'd eat a record dead-cap hit to make it happen. That alone told you this new regime wasn't interested in trying to squeeze one more year out of the old plan.

The Dolphins went 7-10, missed the playoffs again, fired Mike McDaniel, brought in Jeff Hafley, elevated Jon-Eric Sullivan to general manager, and pretty clearly decided this was going to be a reset, not a patch job.

If you want to defend the Willis move, that’s where the argument starts.

This staff knows him. Hafley and Sullivan just watched him up close in Green Bay. They saw him take a clear step from the guy Tennessee had to hide, to a quarterback who looked calmer, sharper, and far more under control in. In 11 games with the Packers over the last two seasons, Willis threw for 972 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions, and he did it while completing over 78 percent of his passes. The efficiency looks great. The athletic traits have always been obvious. He can move, he’s got a live arm, and when the play breaks down he can still make things happen in a way a lot of quarterbacks can’t.

That’s the sell.

The problem is, he just hasn't played much football. I mean, the guy has 155 attempts in his entire four-year career. Sheduer Sanders had 67 more attempts in his eight games last season than Willis has since coming into the league in 2022. He's only been asked to throw the ball more than 20 times in a game twice, and never more than 23.

Miami didn’t sign him to some tiny prove-it deal where the downside is easy to swallow. They gave him three years and $67.5 million, with $45 million guaranteed. That is not backup money. That is real commitment for a player whose entire case still rests mostly on traits and a very small sample of productive reps inside a well-built Green Bay offense.

Two Timelines That Don't Fit

Miami had already accepted pain the moment they cut Tua. Once you do that, why not fully lean into the reset? Why not accept that 2026 might be rough, especially after having a fire sale with the rest of the roster, and take your swing in the draft where you’d get four or five cheap years of control? That’s the part I can’t shake. If you’re going to rewire the whole thing anyway, why rush into paying real money for a quarterback who still has to prove he can handle a full season as the guy?

And it’s not just the money. It’s the kind of upside they’re chasing.

Willis is one of those quarterbacks who is easy to talk yourself into because the tools are real. You can picture the version of the offense that gets harder to defend if the quarterback can escape, run and stress defenses outside of structure. You can sell yourself on the idea that Miami needed to be tougher to defend once the first read was gone. You can convince yourself that the old Tua setup had hit its wall and that a more athletic quarterback gives the offense a different life.

All of that is fair.

But I still think there’s a pretty big difference between upside and ceiling.

Because even if Willis pans out, what are we really talking about? Are we talking about a quarterback who can become the 12th-best starter in football? The 15th? Somewhere in that range? That sounds about right. And that’s not nothing. That's stability. But if that’s roughly the ceiling, then this feels like a lot to pay for a maybe.

There’s also a difference between looking good in limited duty and being the guy teams spend all week building a full game plan around, and we still haven’t seen enough of that play out. Green Bay asked him to do manageable things inside a good structure with real playmakers on the outside. That was smart coaching. It also means Miami is paying for projection more than proof.

And it’s not like he’s walking into the same environment he just left either. In Green Bay, he was surrounded by a deep, young receiver room that could create separation and make life easier on him. In Miami? That’s gone. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both gone. That’s not just losing production — that’s losing the entire identity of the offense. For years, everything was built around speed, spacing, and getting those two guys the ball with room to run. Now you’re asking a quarterback with 155 career attempts to step in and carry an offense that doesn't have many reliable options to go to on the outside.

Miami is clearly betting on traits, on what they saw up close in Green Bay, and on the idea that there’s more there if you give him the keys. They believe he can take on more.

Maybe they’re right.

I just think Miami paid like they're a lot more certain about what he is than the rest of us should be right now, and with the roster already clearly shifting into something new, I’m not sure this was the time to make that kind of bet.

Kyler to Minnesota Is a Steal

This one, on the other hand, I love.

Honestly, the more you look at it, the more it feels like one of the best moves anybody made this offseason. I still can’t really believe Arizona cut Kyler Murray.

Yes, I understand the money part. The Cardinals already owed him $36.8 million guaranteed for 2026, and another $19.5 million for 2027 would've kicked in if he was still on the roster past the fifth day of the league year. From a front-office standpoint, that timing mattered. If you were going to get off the contract, that was the window.

But purely as a football move, it’s still kind of jarring.

Because when you go back and look at what Murray has done the last few seasons when healthy, the ability is still there. In 2023, coming back from the ACL, he threw for 1,799 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions in eight games. In 2024, he played a full season and threw for 3,851 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He still gives you those jaw-dropping plays most quarterbacks simply can’t create. That version of Kyler is still in there.

And Minnesota stealing a one-year shot on that player for basically nothing? That’s a fantastic swing.

Now, I’ll admit this is a little uncomfortable for me because I really did believe in J.J. McCarthy. A part of me still does. I still think there’s a world where he becomes a good starting quarterback. But Minnesota isn't really in a place where they can spend another full year waiting around and hoping the development happens fast enough.

The Vikings went 9-8 last year, missed the playoffs, and got underwhelming quarterback play. McCarthy threw for 1,632 yards with 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 10 games, and his 35.6 QBR really feels like a nice bow wrapping his entire season up. The truth is, Minnesota needed a better answer right now.

Kyler is that.

And I don't think this “competition” will last very long in training camp. Sure, Kevin O’Connell is going to frame it that way publicly because that’s what coaches do. He’s going to talk about competition elevating the room. He’s going to avoid crowning anybody in March. But let’s be real here. Unless Murray looks totally off when he gets there, this is his job.

A Roster That's Ready

Minnesota knows what last year looked like, and they know how talented a roster they had outside of the quarterback position. Justin Jefferson is still Justin Jefferson. Jordan Addison is a real problem. T.J. Hockenson is still one of the better mismatch pieces at tight end. If you put a quarterback in that environment who can buy time, extend plays, and keep the offense alive once the play starts to break down, you can create a lot of stress for defenses.

That’s why I like the fit so much.

And yes, there are legitimate scheme questions. O’Connell’s offense has leaned heavily on under-center work, intermediate middle-of-the-field throws and a certain kind of timing and footwork. Murray has spent much of his career in shotgun. He’s not the cleanest schematic match on paper.

But there are two reasons I’m not overly worried about that.

First, O’Connell's an incredible offensive mind. If you’re going to bet on somebody tailoring things a little more toward shotgun, movement, quick game, and play-action, it’s him.

Second, the reward is worth the adjustment.

There are going to be some layups Murray has to hit more consistently. That's always been part of the conversation with him. He can get impatient. He can try to do too much. There are mental mistakes mixed in with the high-level stuff. But that’s also what comes with the player. The same instinct that occasionally gets him in trouble is also the one that creates the “How did he do that?” plays.

You don’t get one without risking some of the other.

Minnesota clearly decided that was a risk worth taking.

More Than A Stop-Gap?

The other thing I love about this move is how smart it is for both sides.

For the Vikings, it’s a low-cost, high-upside swing. Arizona is paying almost all of Murray’s 2026 salary. Minnesota gets a real starting-caliber quarterback without making some long-term desperation commitment. If it works, great. If it doesn’t, you move on.

For Murray, it’s almost a perfect rehabilitation spot. He gets the best receiver room he’s had in years, a coach who can build around what he does well, and a chance to remind people he’s still a dangerous quarterback. If he plays well, he’s either getting paid by Minnesota or setting himself up somewhere else. That’s a pretty good spot to be in.

And yes, the McCarthy part gets uncomfortable if Murray balls out. There’s no getting around that. If he has a big year and the Vikings win with him, then suddenly you’re asking much bigger questions about where McCarthy fits long term.

But that’s a good problem to have, and one I think the Vikings would sign up for right now if they could.

The Price Is Right… The Plan Isn’t In Atlanta

What exactly is the plan here? Not just for this year, but for the future.

Because I understand the circumstances. I do.

Michael Penix Jr. tore his left ACL in November and, given both the timing and his history, Atlanta had every reason to protect themselves. Penix’s rehab seems to be on track, but there’s still no guarantee he’ll be fully ready for Week 1, and it’s not like we’re talking about a quarterback with spotless durability outside of this one instance. This was already his third ACL tear overall. So I’m not going to sit here and pretend the Falcons had no reason to add somebody.

They absolutely did.

The problem is that adding Tua Tagovailoa creates a very specific kind of awkwardness.

On paper, the contract is fine. A one-year deal at basically minimum money is harmless enough. If that’s the lens you want to use, this is a cheap insurance policy, nothing more.

But quarterback moves don’t live only on paper.

Tua, even after a rough 2025, can still play functional football in structure. If he gets the job early, and he probably has a real shot to, then what? If he’s just okay, does that delay Penix? If he’s good enough to win games in a shaky division, does that tempt Atlanta into something bigger, like a long-term contract? If he struggles and you have to go back to Penix, did you destroy the young kid's confidence?

Delaying the Inevitable

Tua has certainly had his moments; we all remember them. In 2023, he led the league in passing yards with 4,624 and threw 29 touchdowns. In 2024, despite missing time, he still posted a 101.4 passer rating with 19 touchdowns and seven picks in 11 games. Then 2025 went sideways. He threw for 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns and a career-high 15 interceptions, his QBR cratered, and Miami eventually benched him for Quinn Ewers.

So the player Atlanta is getting is not some total disaster. He’s also not the same player Miami convinced themselves was worth a massive extension.

That’s why this move is so uncomfortable from a team-building standpoint.

If Atlanta wants to know for sure whether Penix is the future, then I think you need to get to that answer as fast as you responsibly can. If he’s healthy enough, play him. Let him take his lumps. Let him show you what he is. And if the answer ends up being disappointing, then at least you know. At least you can move forward. At least you’re not fooling yourself.

Bringing in Tua blurs that.

Could he play well enough in this offense to make the Falcons respectable? Sure. Absolutely.

Bijan Robinson is a stud. Drake London is a real No. 1. Kyle Pitts is coming off his best season in years. Kevin Stefanski gives them a more coherent offensive structure than they had before. In the NFC South, it is not hard to picture a version of the Falcons being in the playoff hunt with pretty average quarterback play.

That part is not crazy.

What I don’t get is where you go from there.

Because if Tua plays above average, now what? Are you suddenly considering a longer-term contract on a quarterback whose ceiling and floor both feel pretty clearly established by now? Are you really going to talk yourself into paying him after Miami just ate nearly $100 million in dead money to move on? That sounds like a dangerous place to put yourself.

And if he doesn’t play well, then all you really did was delay Penix and create noise.

This Is About Stability, Not Star Power For New York

Sometimes the smartest quarterback move is the least glamorous one.

That’s Geno Smith to the Jets — and honestly, it feels exactly like what they needed. This isn’t some big swing for upside or a move that’s going to reshape the franchise overnight. They know that. They also know they needed something steady

Because last year wasn’t just bad — it was chaotic. Justin Fields struggled, got benched, and never got the job back. The offense never found any kind of rhythm, and the whole thing spiraled fast.

This really all comes down to raising the floor. Geno isn’t some long-term answer, and nobody’s pretending he is. Even with Aaron Glenn publicly backing him as “the guy” and talking up his processing and command at the line of scrimmage, the reality is pretty simple — Geno's a bridge. A steady, experienced quarterback who can keep things from falling apart every Sunday.

Just Don't Hand Games Away

Over the last couple years, Geno has shown he can still play at a high level when things are going right. In Seattle, he put together back-to-back 3,500+ yard, 20-touchdown seasons. The 17 interceptions from last season jump off the page, sure, but the situation in Vegas wasn’t exactly stable either.

That’s why the Jacoby Brissett comparison makes sense. It’s not about ceiling — it’s about avoiding disaster. Geno gives you a little more arm talent and the ability to push the ball than Brissett, but the role is the same. Keep the offense on schedule. Make the routine plays. Don’t let the game get out of hand by the second quarter.

When Geno is playing well, you can win with him. When he’s off, it can unravel quickly — that hasn’t changed. But the Jets weren’t in a position to chase perfection. They just needed competence.

No, this doesn’t suddenly turn the Jets into contenders. Even though they should have a much-improved defense after a good free agency, they still have an awful lot of holes on that side of the ball. But the floor? That’s where you should see the difference. Geno brings a level of steadiness and professionalism that just wasn’t there last year.

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.

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