There are the true contenders — the teams that have a clear, believable path to the Finals. The group that doesn’t need perfect matchups or a miracle run to still be playing in June. That list felt a little longer this year than it has in the past.

But the reality is, those aren't the only teams who could find themselves fighting for the Larry O'Brien in the Finals. There are a few teams out there who may need a little help, but if they get it, could find themselves there as well.

And that’s the hardest place to be in the NBA. Good enough to win games. Good enough to scare people. Not quite good enough to win four playoff rounds unless everything breaks exactly right.

That’s where this group comes in.

Some of these teams could absolutely make a run if the bracket opens up, the matchups fall their way, and they catch fire at just the right time. Last year's Pacers are a perfect example. At this time of year, no one would've said they have a clear path to the Finals. Not only did they make it there, but they forced a Game 7. 

Other teams in this group? They’re hanging around the conversation, playing the part of a contender more than actually being one. The regular season can blur that line. The playoffs never do.

The Fringe Contenders

Houston Rockets

Houston is dangerous, there's ne denying that. They defend. They rebound. They’ve got firepower. And they’ve got Kevin Durant — which is never nothing.

This team has built its entire season on physicality and possession control. They’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league, and that matters more in the playoffs than people realize. When shots stop falling, extra chances become oxygen.

Defensively, they’ve taken a real step too. They’re long, active, and physical at the point of attack, and that travels in a series. They can turn games into mud, which gives them a real chance against higher‑teir offensive teams.

But the whole season has also been a balancing act because they lost Fred VanVleet before the year really even got rolling. That’s your organizer. That’s your adult. That’s the guy who tells the possession where to go. They don’t have a true point guard right now, and you can feel it when things tighten late.

The numbers back that up. The Rockets are bottom three in assist percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio. That’s fine for stretches when Durant is cooking. It’s terrifying when elite defenses start loading up on him in a playoff series.

And honestly? Shame on the front office for not making more of an effort to fix it at the deadline. When you realize you’re this close, you don’t get infinite chances.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota is volatile. That’s the best word for it. They can get anyone on any night — but doing that for four straight games, that's another story. 

Anthony Edwards is explosive — one of the few guys in the league who can warp an entire game. He’s having a monster season, pushing toward 30 a night with five rebounds and four assists, and you can feel his confidence growing. He’s taken real steps as a late‑game shot creator, and there are nights where he looks like one of the five most dangerous players in the sport.

That’s why they’re not frauds. They can beat anyone in a series if Ant goes nuclear. We’ve seen it.

But the consistency isn’t always there. The supporting cast has had swings, and when Ant has an off night, the offense can get stuck. In the playoffs, you don’t get long stretches to find yourself again.

And that’s the biggest difference between Minnesota and the true contenders. The elite teams have multiple ways to solve a problem. Minnesota still feels like they need to land their best punch.

I don’t think there’s enough reliable creation behind Edwards yet. I’d be surprised if they won two rounds, and I give them little to no shot to make the West Finals.

New York Knicks

Man… I don’t know what to make of the Knicks.

Because the highs are real. The defense is physical. The effort never wavers. Brunson is one of the toughest late‑game shot creators in the league, and they’ve got enough size and toughness to make every possession uncomfortable.

But then you watch them against elite defenses, and the cracks start to show.

Playoff basketball is about solving problems, not just playing hard. And too often, when the Knicks run into real structure, the offense gets stale.

They've gotten better with their three-point shooting this year, but for one reason or another, it just doesn't feel like this version of the team fits very well together. There are too many stretches where the ball sticks, the spacing just isn't right, and the offense turns into one‑on‑one survival.

And that’s where the modern playoff game punishes you.

It’s not even that they have too many ball‑dominant players, but the paint can get crowded at times, and when that happens, the whole offense can fall out of rhythm. 

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland pushed their chips in for James Harden. And I’m not going to lie — it’s a regular season win.

But I’m not convinced it’s a playoff win.

Because on paper, the move makes sense. They needed another organizer. Another high‑level decision‑maker. Someone who could stabilize their half‑court offense and take the pressure off Donovan Mitchell. And early on, you can see the impact. The ball moves better. The offense feels more controlled. Their ceiling in random regular season games is higher.

But the playoffs aren’t random.

They’re about pressure. They’re about history. And Harden’s playoff history is real whether people want to admit it or not. The drop‑offs, the big moments where the production doesn’t match the expectations — that’s part of the conversation now.

Cleveland already saw what it looked like when the Garland/Mitchell pairing didn’t get it done with the added bonus of the top seed in the East. They needed something different. I just don’t know if this version of Harden is the answer.

He’s older. The durability questions are real. The physicality of a long playoff run matters. And when defenses start hunting weaknesses, you need your stars to elevate, not just organize.

Swapping Garland for Harden raises the floor. It probably makes them harder to beat on a random Tuesday. But in a seven‑game series against elite teams, it also feels like the kind of move that quietly lowers your ceiling.

The Pretenders And The Problem With Hope

This is the tier people argue about the most because there are stars here.

But the difference between “dangerous” and “championship” is brutal.

Los Angeles Lakers

Let Luka cook.

And I mean that literally — because most nights, that’s the plan. Luka is putting up superstar numbers again, flirting with 30-plus on a regular basis, and there are stretches where he looks like the best offensive player on the floor by a mile. You’ll watch him hang 40 and still walk away thinking, "How did they lose that?"

That’s kind of the problem.

The Lakers can score. They can go shot-for-shot with almost anyone. But defensively, the numbers and the eye test line up in a way that’s hard to ignore. They’re 24th in defensive rating, and when LeBron is on the floor it's been even worse. That’s not a championship profile.

They’ve also lost games to teams missing key players, which tells you everything you need to know. One night they look explosive. The next night they look disconnected.

The Luka trade was about the future. Long-term, it gives them a runway into the next era. Short-term, this still feels like a team figuring themselves out in real time.

And in the playoffs, "figuring it out" usually turns into "we’re going home."

Long-term? I actually believe in the Lakers post-Bron ceiling, and it likely starts next year.

This year feels more like a transition season with some wild nights and a likely matchup wall waiting in the first or second round.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are fun.

Tyrese Maxey isn’t just a bright spot — he’s legitimately taken a step into stardom. He’s averaging 29 a game with real playmaking attached, and when he’s in rhythm, the offense has real pace and purpose.

And when Joel Embiid is available, you still see flashes of what makes this team dangerous. He can anchor the paint, command double teams, and tilt the floor in ways very few players can.

But that’s the constant caveat.

Availability.

Embiid has already missed stretches this year lingering issues, and that’s the story every postseason. It’s not about whether he can dominate for two games. It’s about whether he can stay upright and explosive for two months.

They can absolutely win a couple big games.

But four rounds? That’s a different sport.

And until Embiid proves he can be there, at full force, through a full playoff grind, they’re stuck in this space.

Toronto Raptors

Toronto is tough. They compete. They defend.

They’ve been one of the better defensive teams statistically this season, sitting at sixth in defensive rating. They don’t beat themselves. They play with structure. They make you earn it.

That’s real.

But when you zoom out, the bigger question shows up: Who is the consistent late-game answer against elite playoff defenses?

That’s where the separation happens. Toronto’s offense has been solid, but not elite. They don’t have the kind of proven, reliable late-game creator that makes good teams uncomfortable.

They feel like a team that can absolutely win a round in the right matchup. They don’t feel like a team that can survive a gauntlet of elite half-court offenses four times in a row.

Miami Heat

Good on the Heat for keeping themselves in this space.

They’re scrappy. They compete. They’ve even played at one of the fastest paces in the league this year, which is a noticeable shift from the old grind-it-out identity.

But the defensive dominance that used to define Miami just hasn’t been there at the same level. They’re okay — not great.

And in today’s league, okay doesn’t carry you very far.

They can absolutely make life miserable for someone in a series. Bam can control stretches. They’ll punch above their weight some nights.

But when you line them up against the top tier and ask who has the better shot creation, the better closing structure, and the better overall talent on the roster… it’s not Miami.

The gap eventually shows up.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns have had a good bounce-back year, all things considered.

They’re hovering around the middle of the West playoff picture, which in this conference means one bad week can swing you from comfortable to staring at the play-in.

And that’s where the injuries hit hardest.

Devin Booker has missed time with a hip issue. Dillon Brooks has been sidelined as well. When you’re trying to climb the standings in a brutal West, that timing is unforgiving.

They just beat the Lakers while shorthanded, which tells you they’re not rolling over. There’s fight there. But the math of the bracket is cruel. If you’re sitting in that 6–8 range, your reward is facing one of the West monsters early.

That’s not a path. That’s survival.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com.

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