Sunday night is the kind of stage where every mistake gets replayed over and over again on all the talk shows the next morning. There's no hiding from that.

Patrick Mahomes is back under the lights after missing nine months with torn ACL and LCL ligaments in his left knee. His return against Denver wasn’t perfect — he completed 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards and threw an interception — but Kansas City still rolled to a 31-10 win. Mahomes even admitted he rushed some reads and missed open receivers. The Chiefs didn’t need him to be at his best because the rest of the team gave him plenty of help.

The Colts are coming off the kind of loss that demands a response. Baltimore beat them 41-23, outgained them 506-251, and turned a competitive game into a runaway with 28 unanswered points.

There’s some history here, too. Indianapolis led Kansas City by 11 points in the fourth quarter last November, only for the Chiefs to force four straight three-and-outs and win 23-20 in overtime. Jonathan Taylor managed just 58 rushing yards in that game, and the Colts gained only 18 yards on their final four possessions combined.

Now Indianapolis gets a chance to show that the Ravens game was a bad afternoon — not a sign of what’s ahead.

Indianapolis Has To Keep The Game In Jonathan Taylor’s Hands

The Colts don’t need Daniel Jones to outduel Patrick Mahomes. Honestly, asking him to do that at Arrowhead is probably the quickest way for this game to get out of hand.

Indianapolis needs Jonathan Taylor to be the guy who controls the game.

Taylor was one of the few bright spots in the Colts’ opener. He ran 19 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns, then added 23 yards on three catches. His 121 total yards made up nearly half of Indianapolis’ entire offensive output.

The problem was that the Colts kept putting themselves in situations where Taylor couldn’t stay involved. After their opening touchdown drive, four of their next nine first-down plays before halftime lost yardage. Another drive ended with Taylor fumbling after catching a screen pass.

That put Jones in exactly the kind of game Kansas City wants him to play. The Chiefs pressured Bo Nix on roughly 46% of his dropbacks Monday and held Denver to just two conversions on 12 third downs. And the scary part for Indianapolis is that Kansas City created most of that pressure without having to send extra defenders.

This Defense Is No Joke

Indianapolis can’t keep living in second-and-11 or third-and-eight against this defense. Once Kansas City knows a pass is coming, Steve Spagnuolo has too many ways to mix up the coverage and bring pressure.

That’s why four or five yards on first down would go a long way. Give Taylor the ball, stay on schedule, and keep the Chiefs’ pass rush from taking over the game. It’d also give Jones easier throws and help Indianapolis control the pace. The Colts led the NFL in yards per play and EPA on first down through Week 13 last season. They need to find that version of themselves again in a hurry.

Of course, Jones still has to make Kansas City pay when the Chiefs start crowding the line to stop Taylor. He finished 19-of-31 for 166 yards, one touchdown and one interception against Baltimore, but most of that production came underneath. Keenan Allen caught all six of his targets, but finished with just 32 yards.

Alec Pierce gave the Colts a little more juice with four catches for 61 yards, and Josh Downs added a 25-yard catch of his own. Indianapolis doesn’t need Jones chucking the ball all over Arrowhead, but he does have to hit enough throws against those loaded boxes to keep Taylor from running into a wall all night.

Kansas City Can Force Indianapolis Into An Impossible Choice

The Chiefs spent years asking Mahomes to save them when the running game couldn’t get much going. Kenneth Walker III might’ve changed that in one night.

Walker ran for 173 yards in his Kansas City debut and finished with 191 yards from scrimmage. He broke 14 tackles, scored twice, and turned a fourth-and-short carry from Kansas City’s own 40-yard line into a 60-yard touchdown. The Chiefs finished with 220 rushing yards, their highest total in a game since 2020.

Now, Denver did miss 28 tackles, so Kansas City probably shouldn’t expect Walker to average more than seven yards per carry every week. Still, defenses can’t just sit in light boxes and wait for Mahomes to beat them anymore.

That’s a rough setup for an Indianapolis defense that just gave up 7.9 yards a play to Baltimore. Derrick Henry ran for 144 yards and three touchdowns, while Lamar Jackson added another 40 yards and a score. The Colts didn’t record a single tackle for loss or break up a pass.

They also had communication problems all afternoon. Defenders were still pointing and trying to get lined up when Baltimore snapped the ball on Zay Flowers’ 49-yard reception during the Ravens’ opening possession. The Colts decided to shake things up by moving the defensive play-calling responsibilities from safety Cam Bynum to linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither.

That might help clean up some of the confusion, but Kansas City is about the worst team to face while you’re still sorting those things out. If Indianapolis sends extra defenders toward Walker, Mahomes gets easier throws to Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce. If the Colts stay light, Walker gets another chance to take over.

The Pick

Indianapolis should put up more of a fight than Denver did.

Jonathan Taylor can carry this offense for stretches, and Daniel Jones has enough reliable targets to keep the chains moving if the Colts avoid putting themselves in bad down-and-distance situations. Kansas City's also coming off a Monday night game, so Indianapolis has a small rest advantage that could help early.

Still, I don’t see the Colts controlling this game for four quarters.

The Colts won’t get held to 10 points, but a turnover or a couple of stalled drives should give Kansas City the opening they need. Indianapolis will hang around, but the Chiefs should pull away late.

Chiefs 34, Colts 20.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

Want more NFL coverage? Head to Sports Pass for the latest. And for more stories that keep you informed and entertained, YourLifeBuzz has you covered.