Record Black Friday Crowds Expected, Not Record Deals

A record 186.9 million Americans are expected to shop between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday this year. That's up from 183.4 million last year, according to the National Retail Federation.

But here's the catch: they'll find fewer bargains. Tariffs hit retailers hard. Prices are up. Deep discounts are down.

"Everything seems to be way more expensive" at malls, said Kate Sanner, a New Yorker who runs an online aggregator for second-hand listings. Last year she spent around $500 on gifts. This season? She’s trimming her budget to $300 and skipping most Black Friday discounts.

The Numbers

Sales in November and December—physical stores and online combined—are forecast to top $1 trillion for the first time. Growth projected between 3.7% and 4.2%.

Sounds good until you realize that's slower than last year's 4.8% gain. This means more people shopping, but slower sales growth. Not a great combination for retailers.

Thanksgiving falls November 27 this year, giving retailers an extra day in the holiday window. That typically accounts for a third of annual profits, so they're launching early promotions to lock in sales.

Walmart's deals began November 14, running in three phases through December 1. Amazon started Black Friday deals week on Thursday. Macy's opened a dedicated Black Friday portal.

Everyone's scrambling for your money weeks before actual Black Friday.

People Are Cutting Budgets

Liz Sweeney, founder of marketing agency Dogwood Solutions in Boise, Idaho, knows her healthcare premium is jumping astronomically in 2026. So all discretionary spending dropped significantly.

"While we spent close to $2,000 on gifts in 2024, our 2025 budget is $750," said the 52-year-old. She's skipping electronics and big purchases, and sticking to shoes, books, and kitchenware.

That's the reality for many shoppers. Sticker shock plus increased costs for necessities like healthcare means less money for holiday gifts.

But here's the weird part: shoppers still have plenty in the bank. Bank of America data from November shows households across all income levels hold more deposits than they did in 2019, before COVID. And consumers aren't using a significant portion of their savings.

"Consumers are sentimentally weak and fundamentally sound," said Mark Mathews, the NRF's chief economist. "U.S. household balance sheets are still strong."

Translation: people have money but don't feel like spending it.

Fewer Actual Deals

The NRF estimates average spending on gifts and seasonal items will reach $890 per person. That's slightly less than last year's $902.

Nearly two-thirds of the 8,427 consumers polled say they'll wait for Thanksgiving weekend deals, up from 59% in 2024. Older shoppers are driving that trend.

The problem is, deals aren't as good as they used to be.

"Knowing when is the right time to buy this year is more difficult," said Edgar Dworsky, founder of Consumer World, who tracks holiday pricing. He added,

With so many pre-Black Friday sales, there are no assurances the same deals will be offered again on the real Black Friday or that popular items will still be in stock.

Historically, stores like Kohl's, JC Penney, and Macy's offered small kitchen appliances for as little as $5 after combining sales prices, coupons, and mail-in rebates. Many of those discounts disappeared.

Kohl's is offering toasters, blenders, and electric frying pans for $9.99 this year—without rebates, just a 15% off coupon. Not terrible, but not $5 either.

"I've definitely seen fewer promotions this year both in-store and online," said Jessica Ramirez, who runs brand consultancy the Consumer Collective. "The first two weeks of November usually bring some activity—though in recent years the discounts haven't been very deep—but this year there's been very little and much more full price."

Walmart's Playing Aggressive

While some retailers pull back on promotions, Walmart is teasing aggressive price cuts.

An 85-inch TCL Roku TV, originally $678, marked down to $498 for Black Friday according to a Reuters review. Last year Walmart highlighted a $120 discount on a 75-inch Vizio TV.

This year's lineup also features a Blackstone outdoor grill at $157, reduced from $224.

So, Walmart's actually trying. Whether other retailers follow suit or stick with their weaker promotions remains to be seen.

The Bottom Line

Record crowds expected. Sales topping $1 trillion for the first time. But growth is slowing, deals are shrinking, and shoppers are cutting budgets despite having savings in the bank.

Tariffs made everything more expensive. Retailers can't afford deep discounts like they used to. Shoppers know it and are adjusting spending accordingly.

So good luck out there. 186.9 million people are competing for deals that aren't as good as they used to be. Welcome to holiday shopping 2025.

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