Virginia Redistricting Win Gives Democrats Shot at House Majority in Midterms
Democrats could pick up more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives by next year, thanks to Tuesday's passing of a Virginia redistricting map. Here is a look at the new congressional map and what it means for both political parties heading into the critical midterm elections.
Virginia Voters Approve New Congressional Map
The future control of the House could have been decided Tuesday night in Virginia. Voters in the Commonwealth approved a map that could result in as many as four new House seats when voters head to the polls in November. Republicans currently enjoy a razor-thin majority in this chamber of Congress, meaning that every new potential seat comes with high stakes.
The redistricting effort gives Democrats an electoral advantage in 10 of Virginia's 11 House districts. Democrats currently control just six of these seats.
The referendum drew support from some of the most influential Democrats in the country. The multimillion-dollar campaign was boosted by the efforts of former President Barack Obama and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
The Democratic Party is responding to criticism of this political gerrymandering by noting that the Republicans started the battle. President Donald Trump was behind a major redistricting effort last year in Texas that redrew maps in the Lone Star State to benefit the GOP.
House Speaker Mike Johnson worked alongside several former Virginia Republican officials to fight the redistricting effort. President Trump dialed into a call on Election Eve to mobilize Republicans to vote against the referendum. While the president jumped into the campaign at the last minute, he was notably absent from earlier efforts to drum up support to defeat the measure. Trump lost the state of Virginia in all three of his presidential bids.
President Trump responded on Wednesday to his party's loss, writing on Truth Social that “A RIGGED ELECTION TOOK PLACE LAST NIGHT IN THE GREAT COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA!” Trump did not cite any evidence in his claim that the vote was rigged. This is not the first time that the president has falsely claimed that an election was rigged, most recently saying that polls demonstrating his low public approval and displeasure with the war in Iran are fixed.
Why the Virginia Measure Could be Pivotal in the Midterms
Not only does the GOP only have a small majority in the House, but the party will also be fighting history when voters turn out in early November. The president's party historically comes out on the losing side in Congress during midterm elections.
After Tuesday's victory, the Democrats have successfully redrawn 10 seats across the nation to work in their favor. The Republicans have redrawn nine seats since Texas jump-started the effort.
Significantly more money was pumped in by the Democrats in this campaign. According to AdImpact, the supporters of the map spent more than $56.4 million on advertising. This figure is more than twice the $24.6 million invested by those opposed to the map.
Republican officials are signaling that they will pursue legal challenges to the redistricting plan. The GOP would likely start with the Virginia Supreme Court. This court allowed the vote to proceed; however, it is still looking at an appeal from a lower-court ruling that argued that the referendum was invalid from the start.
The redistricting campaign in Virginia was quite aggressive. There was some disagreement within the Democratic Party about how many seats to target. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won Virginia in the 2024 presidential election by less than 6 points, raising fear that the state was in danger of sliding more into red territory.
The Democrats decided to take a more aggressive approach and fight for all of the seats that they could get. California Gov. Gavin Newsom spoke during a virtual event for the campaign in Virginia, stating that “We have to be as aggressive, dare I say, ruthless, as they have been.” Newsom went on to say that "We’ve got to fight fire with fire.”
Is Florida Up Next?
House district lines have been historically drawn once every 10 years. This typically happens following the U.S. Census, as opposed to in the middle of the decade. However, the Trump-led campaign to redraw maps in Texas at an off time led to the Democrats following suit with their own redistricting efforts.
Democrats successfully drew a new map in California that effectively offset the gains that Texas picked up for the GOP. Other states are now jumping on the redistricting efforts.
Political experts believe that Florida could emerge as the next battleground in the redistricting effort. The GOP-controlled legislature in Florida is meeting in a session next week to consider new U.S. House maps. The special session was called by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Although Florida Republicans have not released a detailed gerrymandering plan, some leaders have suggested that they are targeting as many as five seats currently controlled by Democrats. GOP leaders in the Sunshine State could be facing an uphill battle. The state's constitution bans gerrymandering for partisan reasons.
In addition, some Florida Republicans serving in Congress have warned that a major redraw could jeopardize some of their own incumbents. The state's GOP electorate has been showing cracks as of late. For example, Democrats unexpectedly picked up seats in recent special elections. Republicans were particularly discouraged when the Democrats won a seat in the overwhelmingly red district that includes Mar-a-Lago.
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