Punxsutawney Phil Only 35% Accurate at Predicting Weather
Punxsutawney Phil gets all the attention every February, but he's awful at his job.
Turns out there are 88 weather-forecasting groundhogs scattered across the U.S. and Canada. Phil's just the one with the best PR team. Some are actual groundhogs. Others are taxidermied groundhogs, plush stuffed animals, or people in costume.
Groundhog Day happens every February 2. If a groundhog sees its shadow, six more weeks of winter. No shadow? Early spring. People have been doing this since the 1800s.
Phil's Got Serious Competition
While Phil soaks up the spotlight in Pennsylvania, groundhogs everywhere else are making predictions too. Georgia has General Beauregard "Beau" Lee. Ohio has Buckeye Chuck. Staten Island Chuck handles New York. There are dozens more thatnobody's heard of.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ranked 19 of these groundhogs in 2025 based on accuracy. They had to have been forecasting for at least 20 years to make the cut.
Phil's Accuracy Is Terrible
Staten Island Chuck sits at 85% accuracy. General Beauregard Lee hits 80%. Lander Lil from Wyoming—a groundhog nobody talks about—lands at 75%.
Phil? Thirty-five percent. He's tied for 17th place with Woody the Woodchuck. That's worse than a coin flip.
Concord Charlie and Gertie the Groundhog both hit 65%. Jimmy the Groundhog and Woodstock Willie are at 60%. Buckeye Chuck, French Creek Freddie, and Malverne Mel all sit at 55%. Octoraro Orphie gets 52.63%, which is weirdly specific but still better than Phil.
Dunkirk Dave, Holtsville Hal, and Poor Richard hit exactly 50%—literally as good as guessing. Uni the Groundhog manages 47.37%. Schnogadahl Sammi drops to 38.89%.
Then there's Phil and Woody at 35%. Mojave Max from Nevada brings up the rear at 25%. He's wrong three out of four times.
So Why Does Everyone Care About Phil?
Phil's been at this since 1887. Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, built a massive annual event around him that draws thousands of people and national media coverage. The 1993 Bill Murray movie didn't hurt either.
But Staten Island Chuck is sitting at 85% accuracy and gets maybe a minute of local news coverage. General Beauregard Lee down in Georgia deserves way more recognition. Even Lander Lil out in Wyoming is crushing Phil's numbers and nobody knows she exists.
Phil's been famous for over a century while being wrong most of the time. He's the celebrity groundhog who shows up, makes a prediction, gets it wrong, and everyone acts like he's a meteorological genius.
When February 2 rolls around and Phil pops out of his burrow, just remember there's a groundhog in Staten Island who actually knows what he's doing. Phil's got the cameras, but if you're planning anything around the weather, you might want to check what Chuck says instead.
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