Climate Change Is Coming for Your Morning Coffee

For millions of people around the world, coffee isn't just a drink. It's a ritual. A personality trait. A non-negotiable. Coffee fuels work deadlines, long road trips, early school drop-offs.

But behind that daily ritual is a delicate growing environment. One that's as fragile as your mood before that first cup. And it's already starting to shift.

These shifts are hitting wallets too. Climate change, along with tariffs on coffee imported into the U.S., has spiked coffee prices in recent years. The price of a pound of coffee rose dramatically over the past year. This January, a pound cost $9.37. Up from just a little more than $7 the year before.

Coffee plants require a narrow range of temperatures and rainfall to grow successfully. According to a study by Climate Central, those temperatures are being pushed to the brink.

How Hot Is Too Hot for Coffee?

The vast majority of the world's coffee comes from Arabica and Robusta coffee plants. If the temperature rises above 86 degrees, it's harmful for these plants to grow.

What Climate Central discovered is that in the five top coffee-producing countries, days above 86 degrees are becoming increasingly common due to climate change.

In Brazil alone—the world's top coffee-growing country—they've seen 70 extra days of coffee-harming heat on average during the last five years. That number is expected to rise.

The "bean belt" comprises 25 countries. All of them are facing this harmful heat. On average, these countries face 47 days a year considered harmful to coffee plants. El Salvador experiences more than double that number.

Future projections show that land suitable for coffee production may decrease by 50% by 2050 without adequate adaptation.

Rainfall Matters Too

While temperature has the biggest direct impact on coffee production, rainfall also plays a critical role.

With temperature extremes come rainfall pattern changes. Doubling down on harming these coffee plants.

A successful plant needs anywhere between 59 and 79 inches of rainfall per year. Climate change is making that harder to achieve. Areas becoming more prone to droughts and floods put added stress on coffee production.

Colombia's Response

Colombia is leading the charge when it comes to coffee production and mitigating climate change.

As the world's third-largest coffee producer, they've started investing in types of coffee plants that can tolerate higher temperatures. They've also started planting native trees over their coffee plantations to provide shade. Lowers the temperatures the coffee plants are exposed to.

Small Farms Are Most Vulnerable

Ninety-five percent of the world's 12.5 million coffee farms are considered "smallholders." They farm less than about 12 acres of land. These small farms are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The family's livelihood depends on a successful crop.

If resources are available from large farms to the smallest, there's a better chance that morning coffee—the one we swear we can't function without—will still be there when we need it.

The Bottom Line

Your morning coffee isn't guaranteed. The plants that make it are fragile. The conditions they need are shifting. The small farms that grow 95% of the world's coffee are the most vulnerable.

Prices are already up from $7 to $9.37 per pound in one year. That's just the beginning if suitable growing land decreases 50% by 2050 without adaptation.

Climate change is coming for your morning coffee. The question is whether adaptation can keep pace with rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. For millions who consider coffee non-negotiable, the answer matters.

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