Why Beef, Bananas and Coffee Got So Expensive

Want proof that food costs are still brutal? Look at bananas, beef and coffee.

Banana prices were up 6.9% in September from a year ago. Ground beef has risen 12.9%. Roasted coffee jumped 18.9%.

"One of the questions that I'm asked a lot is, when are prices coming down? And my answer is simple: never," Phil Lempert, food industry analyst and editor of SupermarketGuru, told CBS News. "The best that we can hope for is stabilization."

It’s never coming down. That's the reality.

What's driving these prices up? Climate change wrecking harvests, U.S. tariffs on imports, and basic supply and demand.

Beef hit record highs

As of September, ground beef averaged $6.30 per pound. That's the highest since the Department of Labor started tracking beef prices in the 1980s. It's 65% higher than late 2019, right before COVID.

Ground beef climbed 65 cents per pound over 12 months, more than 11%. Boneless sirloin steak jumped $2.35, around 20%.

The main problem is there are fewer cows. As global temperatures rise and droughts get worse, farmers have been forced to shrink their herds. As of July, there were 28.7 million beef cows across the U.S. That's the lowest in decades.

"The problem is that there's less cows," Lempert said.

During the 2011 to 2015 drought, farmers and ranchers cut herd sizes by up to 2% a year. Higher grain costs and labor shortages at slaughterhouses aren't helping either.

Tariffs are squeezing supply too. The total tariff on Brazilian beef imports sits at 76.4% now. Brazil is America's largest beef import source.

Coffee costs more than doubled

Ground roast coffee hit $9.14 per pound in September. That's a record high. Back in December 2019, a pound cost just over $4.

Volatile weather in Brazil and Colombia is killing crop yields. Heavy rain in some areas, droughts in others. Earlier this month, coffee prices jumped after NOAA noted the return of La Niña. That weather pattern raised concerns about drought hitting Brazil.

Andrew Hultgren, an assistant professor at the University of Illinois, said global prices for bananas and coffee will keep getting hammered by extreme weather. These products only grow in a small number of regions worldwide.

"These types of price sensitivities will look like inflation to the average consumer," he said.

Tariffs are making it worse

As of 2023, the U.S. imported about 80% of its unroasted beans from Latin America. Hawaii and Puerto Rico are the only U.S. places that produce much coffee, and it's nowhere near enough.

The Trump administration slapped new tariffs on major coffee producers this year. That includes a 50% levy on Brazil, a 10% tariff on Colombia and a 20% tax on Vietnam. Brazilian producers have been holding back shipments while they negotiate with American roasters over who eats the extra costs. That's choking U.S. supplies.

The International Coffee Organization pointed to tariff uncertainty as one reason for supply problems. Coffee "cannot be produced in the U.S. on a large enough scale to meet domestic demand," the trade group said.

Even bananas got expensive

Bananas are still cheaper than most fruits, but they're not immune to inflation either. The average cost hit 67 cents per pound in September. That's the highest on record and up 10 cents, nearly 18%, since late 2019.

Last year Trader Joe's caused an uproar when they raised banana prices for the first time in over two decades. They went from 19 cents each to 23 cents. People lost their minds over four cents.

Supply problems and tariffs pushed banana prices up. Most bananas sold here come from Central and South America. Guatemala supplied 40% of U.S. bananas in 2023. Ecuador and Costa Rica each accounted for 16%.

U.S. tariffs on bananas from Guatemala, Ecuador, Honduras and Costa Rica are still in effect. Levies go as high as 15%.

There's also a fungal disease called Panama Disease wrecking banana supplies. It's specifically going after Cavendish bananas, which are the variety everyone buys.

"The banana that we know and love is getting destroyed by different pests," Lempert said.

The Bottom Line

Climate change keeps making droughts worse and more frequent. That hits cattle ranching, coffee growing, and banana farming. Extreme weather destroys crop yields and forces ranchers to shrink herds.

Tariffs pile on extra costs. The U.S. imports most of its coffee and bananas, plus a significant chunk of beef. When tariffs go up, consumers pay more at checkout.

These aren't luxury items either. They're basics that millions of Americans buy regularly. Beef for dinner, coffee for mornings, bananas for breakfast or snacks.

For households already stretched by inflation everywhere else, rising costs for food staples like beef, coffee and bananas make budgets even tighter. There's no relief coming.