COVID-19 Levels Up 106% as Summer Surge Continues

The summer surge is here. While all of the foodborne pathogens have dominated the health headlines this summer, medical experts are warning that COVID-19 has been quietly lurking in the background. Read on for when you should expect this surge to peak, as well as what symptoms are being reported with the current strain and anticipated vaccine availability.

COVID-19 Spreading Rapidly Throughout the U.S.

Cases of COVID-19 are on the upswing again, following the trend of past summers when the virus begins to circulate more widely. According to recent data from WastewaterSCAN, COVID-19 levels have increased dramatically across the U.S. This agency monitors the level of the virus and other diseases in wastewater samples. This is an important monitoring tool, as most people are not seeking tests to detect the virus like they were during the early days of the pandemic.

Amanda Bidwell, WastewaterSCAN scientific program manager, said, "We’ve been seeing a pretty steady increase since late June across the U.S. So far in August, SARS-CoV-2 concentrations are up 106% compared to July 2026." The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed this data, noting that they have also observed that the number of COVID-19 infections is increasing in all 50 states.

The CDC said that while cases are trending upward, the overall activity is still considered to be relatively low on a national scale. Rates are increasing the fastest in the southern and western regions of the country. For instance, California and Texas are two states that have reported the most notable increases in cases.

The summer spike has been a consistent trend over the last few weeks. While the SARS-CoV-2 virus circulates throughout the year, it has settled into a seasonal pattern that sees cases jump during the mid to late summer months and again just after the holidays. Unfortunately, most of the summer surge patterns have also coincided with the back-to-school season when kids increasingly gather inside in close quarters and keep the virus circulating.

The good news is that the summer of 2026 surge appears to be less significant than what was recorded last year at this same time. For example, CDC data shows that while nearly 5% of all of the COVID-19 tests came back positive last week, the positivity rate was over 9% during the same time period last year.

When can you expect the peak of this year's summer surge? Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., who leads the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative’s (PMC) data tracker, said that public health experts are expecting transmission to peak during the first week of September. PMC has observed active outbreaks in at least 15 states over the last week.

What You Need to Know About Current Variants and Symptoms

The latest wave of cases is being fueled by several different variants. The dominant strain, known officially as XFG.1.1, is responsible for 22-40% of all of the U.S. cases. This highly contagious variant overtook the Nimbus strain from last summer.

The CDC data shows that roughly 15% of the current cases are coming from the BA.3.2 variant, also known as Cicada. Although this heavily mutated strain is dominating global cases, it is not as prevalent in the U.S.

The variants may be changing, but the general symptoms of the virus remain the same. Health experts say that the symptoms associated with this summer wave are most closely related to past omicron strains, typically appearing within two to 14 days after exposure. The most common signs of COVID-19 in 2026 are sore throat, cough, fever, fatigue, congestion, chills, headache, shortness of breath, nausea and vomiting, and diarrhea.

A new COVID-19 vaccine engineered to target the XFG strain is expected to be available in September. However, the vaccine still needs to clear the approval process, meaning that there could be delays.

The news of the summer surge comes just a few weeks after the Trump administration announced major changes to the current vaccine recommendations. The COVID-19 vaccine is no longer part of the recommended immunization schedule for healthy children and pregnant women, prompting concern from public health advocates.

The CDC continues to assert that the COVID-19 vaccine protects you from severe illness, hospitalization, and death. The vaccine can also reduce the chances that an infected individual develops long COVID-19 complications.

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