Sindy HoxhaFeb 23, 2025 9 min read

Trump’s Stock Market: Soaring High or Crashing Hard?

Donald Trump appears on a television screen at the stock market in Frankfurt, Germany, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

Trump is back. Wall Street is watching. Investors are bracing. If you think his second term will be a repeat of 2016-2020, you might want to sit down—because the game has changed.

Will the stock market crash during Trump? Or will his policies send markets soaring again? Buckle up because we're diving deep into the most unfiltered, brutally honest market predictions you won’t find anywhere else.

Trump’s Cabinet & The Stock Market – Who’s Holding the Strings?

Forget what the mainstream analysts are saying—Trump’s second term is about power moves and market shake-ups. His cabinet appointments alone could send stocks flying or tank entire sectors overnight.

Howard Lutnick (Trump’s new Commerce Secretary) is big on crypto. That means Trump's stock market could get a serious crypto injection—with Bitcoin, Solana, and Trump’s own $TRUMP meme coin playing a much bigger role in financial markets.

Treasury Secretary? Trump could pick another Wall Street heavyweight or someone even more aggressive on tax cuts, deregulation, and business-first policies. That’s bullish for stocks but could spell long-term economic chaos.

Federal Reserve? Powell is out, Trump’s pick is in. If Trump pressures the Fed to slash rates, expect a short-term stock market rally followed by a potential disaster. Remember what happened last time low rates fueled a massive bubble?

The wildcard? Trade wars 2.0. If Trump goes nuclear on China again, we could see another supply chain meltdown—and that’s a recipe for a crash.

Will The Stock Market Crash During Trump?

Credit: Adobe Stock

Okay, let’s get real. Every financial guru and their dog is talking about the next market crash, but nobody’s really breaking it down. Here’s the deal:

The recession timer is ticking—Biden’s term was propped up by AI stocks and unrealistic Fed policies. Now, we’re heading into overheated markets, a massive debt crisis, and geopolitical instability.

Tech bubble 2.0? AI stocks are booming, but we’ve seen this before (cough Dot-Com bubble cough). If companies like Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft get overhyped, it could lead to a brutal sell-off.

Corporate debt is at insane levels—Businesses have been borrowing cheap money for years, and with interest rates still high, defaults are coming. If a major company collapses (think Lehman Brothers 2008), expect full-blown panic.

Real estate is shaky—If Trump brings in rate cuts but commercial real estate keeps tanking, we might see a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis. Retail giants are already abandoning malls—that’s a flashing red warning sign.

Wildcards that could trigger a crash:

  • A China-Taiwan conflict sending global markets into chaos.

  • Trump’s policies are getting blocked by Congress, creating uncertainty.

  • A black swan event (Think COVID, 9/11, or an unexpected economic collapse).

Final Word? Trump’s return might delay a crash in the short term, but it can’t prevent one if market fundamentals are broken.

Next Stock Market Crash Prediction – Timing the Fall

Everyone wants to know when the next stock market crash will hit. The truth? No one knows the exact date. But the warning signs are there.

Inverted yield curve – This has predicted almost every major recession in history. It’s inverted now. That should worry everyone.

Retail investors are over-leveraged—Meme stocks are back. Crypto is pumping. That’s a sign of irrational exuberance, and we all know how that ends (hint: badly).

Big money is preparing—Hedge funds are hedging hard. When the ultra-rich start moving into gold, bonds, and cash reserves, you know they see a storm coming.

Possible crash timeline?

  • 2025-2026: Short-term rally fueled by Trump’s policies.

  • 2027-2028: Economic imbalances start showing. Rate cuts lead to inflation spikes.

  • 2028-2029: Boom turns to bust. Massive correction, possible recession.

Smart move? If you're an investor, don’t get greedy. Take profits when things get irrational. Keep cash on hand for buying opportunities when the market crashes.

Trump’s Economic Policies & Their Market Impact

Credit: Adobe Stock

Trump’s economic playbook is both predictable and chaotic. Expect:

  • Tax Cuts 2.0 – If Trump cuts corporate taxes again, stocks will pump.

  • Wall Street First – Trump loves big business, big banks, and big deals. That’s bullish for finance, energy, and defense stocks.

  • Deregulation Frenzy – Less red tape = more stock buybacks, higher profits, and a short-term bull run.

  • More Trade Wars – If Trump targets China, tariffs could hit consumer prices and hurt markets.

  • Higher National Debt – Trump doesn’t care about the deficit. That means short-term growth, long-term economic risk.

Who benefits the most?

  • Oil & gas companies (fossil fuels will thrive).

  • Military-industrial complex (Trump = more defense spending).

  • Big banks & hedge funds (looser regulations = more profits).

Who suffers?

  • ESG & Green Energy Stocks (Trump doesn’t like them).

  • Tech Giants (Possible antitrust action).

  • Small businesses (Big corps win, small guys get crushed).

Investing Strategies Under Trump – What’s the Smart Money Doing?

If you're an investor, 2025-2029 will be a rollercoaster on steroids. The market is primed for massive swings, and playing it safe might just be the riskiest move of all. Wall Street loves a Trump presidency—until it doesn’t. So, where’s the smart money going? And more importantly, where should you avoid throwing your cash before it burns up like a meme stock in a Reddit frenzy?

Where to put your money:

AI & Automation – AI isn't going anywhere. Even if it’s in a bubble, it’s a bubble with legs. Companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Tesla are leading the charge, and as long as businesses keep automating, these stocks will stay red-hot. The real money is in the infrastructure—think semiconductors, cloud computing, and robotics. Just don’t be the last one holding the bag when the hype cycle fades.

Crypto – This isn’t 2021. Crypto is back, but this time, it has a Trump-backed tailwind. His cabinet picks are pro-crypto, anti-regulation, and ready to shake up the traditional finance world. The Solana ecosystem is booming, and Bitcoin could hit six figures if institutional money keeps pouring in. That being said, crypto is still the Wild West—so if you’re betting big, be ready for insane volatility.

Gold & Commodities – The OG inflation hedge. If Trump pushes massive tax cuts, increases military spending, and keeps the Fed under pressure, inflation could creep back up. That’s gold’s time to shine. Commodities like oil, silver, and even uranium will likely thrive in an America-first, pro-energy environment.

Defense Stocks – Trump and military spending go together like meme stocks and YOLO trades. With rising global tensions and a likely push for more defense funding, companies like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman are primed for growth. If a new Cold War with China escalates, expect even bigger gains.

Credit: Adobe Stock

What to avoid:

Overleveraged Tech Stocks – AI isn't going anywhere, but not every AI company is the next trillion-dollar giant. Look at what happened in the Dot-Com bubble—companies with no real revenue skyrocketed, then vanished. The same will happen with AI startups selling pipe dreams. Be careful where you park your money.

High-Risk Startups – Startups thrive on cheap money, and interest rates are still not exactly free money mode. Expect more VC firms to cut funding, more startups to struggle, and IPOs to become even riskier. Unless you’ve got inside info or high conviction in a company’s long-term future, this isn’t the time to gamble.

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) – Commercial real estate is hanging by a thread. Office buildings are empty, retail is struggling, and banks are quietly trying to offload bad real estate loans. If you’re thinking about REITs, stick to sectors like logistics, warehouses, and data centers—avoid office space investments like they’re radioactive.

Final Investing Tip: Stay flexible. The stock market under Trump will be unpredictable, and the winners of 2023-2024 may not be the winners of 2026-2027. Keep your portfolio diversified, hedge against volatility, and don’t go all-in on one sector—no matter how hyped it gets.

The Wildcards: What Could Shock the Market?

The stock market has a way of slapping overconfident investors in the face just when things look predictable. Here are some wildcards that could flip everything upside down:

Elon Musk & Trump Alliance? – Imagine Tesla, SpaceX, and AI-driven tech getting a direct Trump endorsement. If Musk and Trump team up, expect fireworks in AI, EVs, and private space markets. It could mean insane Tesla growth or even a Musk-led digital dollar alternative to CBDCs. Or, it could just be a lot of tweets and zero execution—hard to tell with these two.

CBDC vs. Crypto War – Trump hates big government control, so will he block Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and push Bitcoin instead? If he officially endorses BTC, expect mass adoption and price explosions. If he flips and tries to regulate it, crypto could face a rug pull like never before.

Black Swan Event – The thing no one sees coming. Maybe another pandemic. Maybe another financial crisis triggered by commercial real estate. Maybe a full-scale U.S.-China conflict that sends markets into chaos. One thing’s for sure—the market never crashes on things people expect. It’s always something out of left field that catches everyone off guard.

Bull Run or Financial Chaos?

Trump’s return is pure adrenaline for the stock market. Expect short-term market rallies due to tax cuts and deregulation and long-term instability from high debt, trade wars, and reckless policies. If you’re an investor, play smart. Stay ahead of the trends. And remember: bull markets make money, but bear markets make millionaires.

Final Prediction? The Trump stock market will be a wild ride—just don’t get caught at the top when the music stops.

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