2026 Social Security COLA: Seniors Could See a Boost—But There’s a Catch

Social Security checks may increase in 2026, but advocates say the numbers behind the rise are not telling the whole story.

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan group that tracks retiree issues, is now projecting a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security next year. That's a slight bump from last month's estimate of 2.4%, based on the latest inflation data. However, while the increase may appear decent on paper, TSCL warns that it may not accurately reflect the actual rising costs older Americans are facing.

Breaking Down the 2026 COLA Forecast

Every year, the Social Security Administration (SSA) adjusts benefit payments to help seniors keep pace with rising costs. This annual increase, known as the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), is based on a specific measure of inflation called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). That data is gathered and published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Recent inflation data from the Consumer Price Index shows prices rising 2.4% in May and 2.7% through June.

The projected COLA for 2026 remains at 2.5%. That's significantly lower than the increases seniors saw in 2023 (8.7%) or 2024 (3.2%).

While the government's inflation formula indicates smaller price gains, many older Americans report that their actual expenses have increased by far more than 2.5% over the last year.

The Data Driving COLA May Be Incomplete

The BLS, the agency responsible for calculating inflation, has recently scaled back its data collection efforts. A staffing freeze that began in April forced the agency to halt price tracking in several cities, including Lincoln, Nebraska; Provo, Utah; and Buffalo, New York. It also reduced the number of locations and items used in its nationwide sampling.

The COLA is only as accurate as the data driving it. Fewer data points could mean that the inflation rate used to calculate benefits doesn't accurately reflect what people are actually paying.

"If the government fails to act and the CPI's data quality begins to erode, it increases the likelihood of the government providing a COLA that doesn't match inflation," TSCL said in a recent statement.

As the data becomes more limited, concern is growing that seniors are being underpaid. And not because inflation is under control, but because it's being undercounted.

Seniors Report Rising Costs, Especially in Healthcare

A 2025 survey from TSCL found that most retirees now spend over $1,000 a month on healthcare alone. Survey respondents also estimated that their total cost of living had increased by more than 3% over the past year, which is significantly higher than the CPI reflects.

If the official COLA doesn't match real inflation, retirees could lose thousands of dollars in buying power over the course of their retirement.

TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said: "While streamlining the federal government is a good thing, that shouldn't involve cutting back on our ability to measure how our economy is changing."

When Will the Final 2026 COLA Be Announced?

The official COLA figure for 2026 will be released in October 2025, using CPI-W data from the third quarter of the year (July through September).

Until then, retirees and policy experts will be closely watching inflation trends and updates from the BLS regarding its data collection efforts.

What You Can Do Now

The 2.5% COLA is just a projection for now. But there is no guarantee the final number will be enough to keep up with rising costs.

While we wait for the final decision in October, there are a few smart ways to stay ahead:

• Keep track of your spending

• Leave extra room in your budget for surprise increases.

• Follow updates from the Social Security Administration and senior advocacy groups like TSCL. They often share key info before it hits the headlines.

• Speak up if you can. When lawmakers and agencies hear directly from retirees, it puts real pressure on the system to do better.

A small increase is better than none. But for many, the bigger question is whether it’s enough to keep up. And that’s something only time and stronger data will tell.

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