If Sunday was any indication, Thursday night won’t be a quiet one.

The Lions and Bills both survived wild Week 1 games, but neither defense exactly inspired confidence. Detroit blew a 21-point lead before escaping New Orleans with a 31-30 overtime win. Buffalo needed a 96-yard touchdown drive from Josh Allen and a late Greg Rousseau strip-sack to beat Houston 36-31.

In other words, both offenses looked ready to score against just about anybody. The defenses? They’ve got some work to do.

That makes this a pretty perfect matchup to open Prime Video’s Thursday Night Football schedule. The Lions and Bills will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 17th, with Buffalo hosting the first regular-season game inside the new Highmark Stadium.

And if this game looks anything like the last time these two teams met, fans could be in for another shootout. Buffalo won that 2024 thriller 48-42, with Josh Allen accounting for four touchdowns and Jared Goff throwing for 494 yards and five scores. The two teams combined for 1,080 yards that afternoon.

Two years later, neither defense has given us much reason to expect much of anything different on a short week. So, yeah, another high-scoring game feels like the safest bet.

Detroit’s Secondary Is Walking Into A Problem

Detroit’s defense was able to come up with a few key plays to make this look like a lopsided matchup through three quarters on Sunday. The final numbers don’t show that, but the Lions forced three turnovers, sacked Tyler Shough five times, and kept New Orleans off the scoreboard until late in the third quarter.

Then the wheels came off.

Shough finished with 410 passing yards and three touchdowns. Chris Olave caught 10 passes for a career-high 182 yards, even though everyone in the building knew he was the receiver Detroit had to slow down. Rock Ya-Sin and D.J. Reed both had their chances but just couldn't stay with him consistently, and once New Orleans picked up the pace, the Lions didn’t have much of an answer.

The issues weren’t just on the outside, either. Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant combined for seven catches, 87 yards and two touchdowns. Johnson tied the game with 1:07 left in regulation, and Fant scored again in overtime. Detroit’s linebackers and safeties kept losing leverage and giving up way too much space to two tight ends who aren’t exactly Travis Kelce and George Kittle.

You can bet Buffalo watched that film and liked what they saw.

Buffalo Can Turn Detroit’s Coverage Issues Into A Mismatch

The Bills leaned on three-tight-end sets more than any other team in Week 1, and it’s easy to see why. Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes all bring something different. Hawes is the bigger blocker, Knox can line up all over the place, and Kincaid is basically a big receiver who gets to pick on linebackers and safeties.

Kincaid caught five passes for 130 yards against Houston. D.J. Moore also had a strong Bills debut, catching five passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. That gave Buffalo a 100-yard receiver and a 100-yard tight end in the same game for only the second time in franchise history.

Josh Allen finished 20-of-29 for 334 yards, threw two touchdowns, and ran for two more. Buffalo had 10 plays of at least 15 yards and punted just twice against a Houston defense that was supposed to be much better than what they showed Sunday.

That’s the problem for Detroit. If the Lions use bigger personnel, they still won’t necessarily know whether Buffalo is about to run or throw. Kincaid could end up matched against one of the linebackers who had trouble in coverage against New Orleans. If Detroit responds by putting more defensive backs on the field, James Cook and Buffalo’s offensive line will be licking their lips.

The Lions are already without starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. Avonte Maddox and Chuck Clark have plenty of experience, but neither one fixed the coverage problems against New Orleans. D.J. Reed was also added to Tuesday’s injury report with a foot issue.

Detroit’s best bet is to make this game about their defensive line before Allen gets a chance to pick apart the secondary.

Aidan Hutchinson opened the season with two sacks and has now recorded at least one in seven straight games. Derrick Barnes added a sack and an interception. That group has to make Allen uncomfortable without sending extra rushers all night. If Detroit leaves another short-handed secondary in one-on-one coverage, Allen will make them pay. And bringing him down is a much tougher assignment than finishing against Tyler Shough.

Jahmyr Gibbs May Be Detroit’s Best Defense

Detroit doesn’t have to turn into the 2000 Ravens on defense Thursday. They just need to keep that defense off the field and Josh Allen on the sideline as much as possible.

That starts with Jahmyr Gibbs.

With David Montgomery now in Houston and Isiah Pacheco out after back surgery, the Lions gave Gibbs the biggest workload of his career Sunday. He answered with 156 rushing yards, 30 receiving yards, and two touchdowns on 34 touches.

That’s a pretty good way to make everyone forget, at least for a little while, that your defense just blew a 21-point lead.

The Lions ran for 165 yards on 33 carries even after Christian Mahogany left in the first quarter. Their reworked offensive line kept opening holes against a New Orleans defense that had quietly turned into one of the better units in the league late last season.

Buffalo’s Front Could Decide The Game

Buffalo’s defense is a different kind of problem. Greg Rousseau had two sacks and forced two fumbles against Houston. Deone Walker added another sack, and Ed Oliver and Bradley Chubb helped give new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard a front that can wreck a drive in a hurry.

Still, the Bills weren’t exactly in control all afternoon. Houston kept them on the field for 79 snaps and ran for 124 yards. They also put together three touchdown drives of at least 72 yards. After the Texans fumbled on their opening possession, they scored on five straight drives. Buffalo made the big plays they needed to late, but they didn’t consistently win at the line of scrimmage or get off the field.

Now Rousseau, Chubb, and Oliver all have to turn around and play again in four days after each logging at least 63 snaps.

Detroit should make them tackle Jahmyr Gibbs until they prove they can handle it. If the Lions can run the ball, they can shorten the game and take some life out of what should be a pretty rowdy crowd.

The offensive line makes that plan a little harder to trust. Mahogany and rookie right tackle Blake Miller both missed practice on Monday and Tuesday, and center Juice Scruggs was limited with a knee injury. Ben Bartch would likely start for Mahogany again, and Larry Borom looks like the next option if Miller can’t go.

That’s a lot of uncertainty to carry into a matchup with a front that had three sacks and two game-changing strip-sacks in Week 1.

It's Not All On Them

Goff can help his case by getting the ball out quickly, especially when Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are the first reads. St. Brown caught 10 passes and scored both of Detroit’s receiving touchdowns Sunday, and LaPorta finally looked healthy again after a back injury cut his 2025 season short.

Jameson Williams should have some chances, too, assuming he can finish the plays. He saw nine targets and accounted for more than half of Detroit’s intended air yards against New Orleans, but two drops left him with just four catches for 45 yards.

Detroit can’t ask Gibbs to carry the ball 29 times every week and expect him to still have much left in December. But for this game, leaning on him makes a lot of sense.

The more time Gibbs spends running through Buffalo’s defense, the less time Allen gets to turn Detroit’s coverage issues into a track meet.

Who Wins Thursday Night?

Both teams walked out of Week 1 with a win, but I'm not sure either team feels good about the performance. Buffalo gave up 31 points and needed a takeaway inside their own 10-yard line to keep Houston from stealing the game. Detroit blew a 21-point lead, then nearly watched a quarterback making his tenth start finish the comeback before the Saints missed the two-point conversion.

The matchup is what makes this one different.

New Orleans found plenty of room against Detroit with Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, and Noah Fant. Buffalo has Josh Allen, D.J. Moore, and a much tougher group of tight ends ready to attack those same areas.

If Detroit sells out to protect that weak secondary, James Cook and Allen can hurt the Lions on the ground. If the Lions load up against the run, Buffalo has enough weapons to make them pay through the air.

Jahmyr Gibbs should help Detroit control parts of this game, and Jared Goff has enough around him to take advantage of Buffalo’s defensive issues. I truly believe the Lions can score in the 30s again. That part doesn’t scare me.

The problem is that they might need to get into the 40s to win.

This will be Buffalo’s first real game inside a stadium built to make the crowd feel even louder, and Detroit’s offensive line is dealing with enough injuries to make that a real concern. Add in a secondary that just gave up 410 passing yards, and Allen has too many ways to take this one over.

I think Detroit hangs around, but Buffalo finds a few more answers late.

Bills win another shootout, 41-31.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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